Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis

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tokenanalyst

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Abominable said:
This article makes no sense. If Biden was so opposed to Pelosi visiting, why didn't he just tell her not to go? Doesn't America have the equivalent of the three-line whip?
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Because she is not part of the White House, she is part of the house of representatives so the White House doesn't have authority over her. Crazy Nancy just want to play with Gas and matches and let others deal with the fire.
 
Bellum_Romanum

Bellum_Romanum

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FairAndUnbiased said:
The current Politburo isn't looking good.

I'm gonna say that Hu Chunhua is destined for top leadership at some point, probably Premier after Li Keqiang, maybe can get President if lucky and he outlasts Xi.

But rest of Politburo is getting too old as they were mostly born in the 50s, even down to the provincial level.

I hope Zhao Lijian is promoted to State Councilor/FM at some point. That would troll the shit out of Australia and India.
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Not to mention he would make Susan Rice lose her shit with this gem the now deleted post on Twitter: Lijian Zhao, a diplomat posted in Islamabad, said on Sunday that if “you’re in Washington, D.C., you know the white never go” to the southeastern part of the U.S. capital.

Susan Rice went batshit nuts with her response with a demand to then Ambassador Qui:

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1150584069354414080

Zhao clapped back: "You are such a disgrace, too. And shockingly ignorant, too. I am based in Islamabad. Truth hurts. I am simply telling the truth,” Zhao fired back at Rice on Monday. “To label someone who speak the truth that you don’t want to hear a racist, is disgraceful & disgusting.”

The rest is history...lol
 
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Overbom

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Abominable said:
This article makes no sense. If Biden was so opposed to Pelosi visiting, why didn't he just tell her not to go? Doesn't America have the equivalent of the three-line whip?
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Its fake news from a fake news propaganda outlet.
So instead of saying "anonymous sources" or "people close to X person admit bla bla", lets see the facts

Biden has repeatedly said that the US would come to the defence of Taiwan - FACT

Pelosi boarded a military plane for her visit to Taiwan, while Biden is the commander of chief who had the power to deny her from using military assets if he wanted - FACT


"But Overbom, that would be politically damaging for Biden"
To which I answer, i don't care about politics, I see the facts, Biden had the power to stop her but he didn't, end of story. This proof is good enough for me (and apparently the CPC) to make up my mind if this was truly an accident or a maliciously calculated move (spoiler alert: yes it was a calculated move)
 
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Abominable

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Overbom said:
Its fake news from a fake news propaganda outlet.
So instead of saying "anonymous sources" or "people close to X person admit bla bla", lets see the facts

Biden has repeatedly said that the US would come to the defence of Taiwan - FACT

Pelosi boarded a military plane for her visit to Taiwan, while Biden is the commander of chief who had the power to deny her from using military assets if he wanted - FACT


"But Overbom, that would be politically damaging for Biden"
To which I answer, i don't care about politics, I see the facts, Biden had the power to stop her but he didn't, end of story. This proof is good enough for me (and apparently the CPC) to make up my mind if this was truly an accident or a maliciously calculated move (spoiler alert: yes it was a calculated move)
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America had two options. Either just tell Pelosi not to go, or be firm with China and insist that Pelosi has every right to visit and this was backed 100% by the White House.

Painting the picture that Pelosi is some renegade who's visiting Taiwan despite the Pentagon and the White House being against it just makes the American government look weak to me. What are they going to reveal next, that she hijacked the plane and flew there of her own accord?

It's also hilarious that the article refers to Biden's administration as an entity and not to the man himself. We all know he's incapable of making a independent decision right now.
 
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taxiya

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ougoah said:
In that case it's more about the land of Taiwan than the 70% or so of it's Chinese inhabitants that do not want to be a part of the PRC.

Perhaps if it's a choice between PRC or invasion that proportion will become 50-50 but it appears peaceful reunification is certainly less likely after the morale boost to those 70% of anti PRC Taiwanese and the salami slicing of the US and DPP.

The fact stands that these people are ethnically Chinese. Okay they're not loyal and will never to loyal to the PRC. So why reunite them?? It's about the geostrategy of the issue and the island. The process of rejuvenation and as a symbolic end to the Chinese civil war. Where the ccp is the newest dynasty with absolute power in china is without a breakaway claimant to the throne being propped up by the US.

But AR isn't happening yet. Clearly ccp understands the facts and in balance it is not ideal to do that now. Peaceful means is more distant today than a week ago but still a possibility.

Personally I want to avoid bloodshed of Chinese people. I've been to Taiwan and the vast majority of people are justifiably determined to be independent of PRC because they've coped fine enough on their own. You must understand the "enemy" and understand yourself right? Well let's spare some empathy to the average civilian. Forcing them to choose between AR and peaceful reunification may shift many people over but they'll never be loyal for generations. The ccp understands itself and the enemy.

The conclusion seems to be bluff for as long as possible so that Taiwan didn't declare independence anytime from civil war finalising to well this moment since they still haven't.

Perhaps the whole time it was a bluff just to keep Taiwan off that declaration. It bought PRC many decades and despite one failed attempt in the 20th century, Taiwan still did not declared independence. Clearly those bluff threats served their purpose well.

PRCs ability to AR is greater now than ever in the past. It shifted from no hope of peaceful reunification and only military means (with a weak military) to more appealing peaceful reunification but much more military capability to perform AR.

With this event is it wise to throw away that chance of peaceful reunification? Despite it being sliced down somewhat yesterday?

AR no matter what is going to cost PRC diplomatically and in resources. It will end the lives of so many innocent lives on the island even if it's a careful one.

Has Taiwan or US overstepped red lines to force AR? No. Let's slow the outrage and surprise. Ccp has a better understanding of themselves and what they're dealing with. What the better outcomes are and how to more effectively achieve those.

I guess some here just want to see military action. Others want western attention off their shoulders. Indians want china to get dragged into war and become isolated from western markets.
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I agree with the rest of your post about timing and effort of CCP, but feel that you are coming from a foundation that I disagree. It feels like we are walking in the same direction but with different purpose.

I think ethnicity means nothing in the history of any state in the world. There were very large population opposing the new regime during a time of change such as French revolution, Russian revolution and American independence war besides China's many dynastic changes and revolutions from 1911 to 1949. Both fighting sides are of the same ethnicity, your issue of "winning the heart of the opposing side" were never something that discouraged the change, nor preventing it. Neither parties bothered by it. All sides believed that their victory will eventually change the heart of the opposition IF they choose to stay, or otherwise they would choose to leave at the first opportunity. And the results proved the winners being right with some small initial headaches.

Taiwan issue is just a continuation of the unfinished civil war except it affects MUCH smaller population than pre-1949. Peaceful unification is preferred but not a must. "Winning the heart" of some millions by 1.5 billion isn't a concern nor difficult task. By using quotation marks I hope you know what I mean by "winning". Countries go the way that majorities want, the minorities have to follow regardless their heart. 1.5 billion is an overwhelming majority. To put blatantly, the 1.5 billion Chinese do not give a dime to winning the hearts of some people who don't even accept being a Chinese on Chinese soil.

Lastly, it must be clear that the issue is only about statehood, not ethnicity. China is the state, at present it is PRC. Chinese is the citizens of PRC which includes anyone willing to be so in Taiwan. Any people who refuse is NOT Chinese, but foreigners illegally occupying Chinese territory even if they are Chinese decedents. PRC cares to have more people on the island to change their mind and side, but if they refuse, the door is open for them to leave.

So here is the short version, Unification in the near future is a must, preferably by peaceful means to save the lives of PLA and Taiwan patriot (nobody else), but the heart isn't a condition in determining the method. Remember what Chi Haotian (迟浩田) said? “宁可台湾不长草！也要解放台湾岛”

BTW, "time is on China's side" is a relative term if compared to US' ability to interfere. But it is 73 years from the divide. Qing dynasty forcefully unified Taiwan 39 years after its establishment in Beijing. How long time is PRC to wait for the heart of Taiwan? Forever? That is same as never.
 
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