Fourth Taiwan Strait Crisis
- Thread starter sndef888
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Pride comeths before the fall...
Flat tops dont fight. Peoples do. It is surprising to me to see China falling for the same trick of "i'm daring you". Why West doesnt start a war fight with Russia? It's because of their attitude of "why dont you shoot at me & see what happens". Of couse their nuclear arsenal is a factor,but not the only factor.
West has become familiar with this Russian attitude as much as they have become familiar with Chinese one. Too much careful planning. China needs to take a leaf out of Russia's palybook & leave some of the carefulness for the opposition. Escort that flight out of TIOC, land some of them in middle of TIOC. Dare both of them to shoot at you. You cant be only one being cautious of accident. Sometimes You have to be North Korea. You never know what they will fo,that's why it's their opponents who have to b cautious.
It kinda just occurred to me, but if Pelosi does land on Taiwan.
Something like an Abe scenario could actually happen, with the person doing the attack being a ROC citizens, moreoever even born in ROC.
I do think that could happen lol.
I think it is fine to let Pelosi plane land under 1 circumstance only, beyond a show of force and changing some realities on the ground: downgrading relations. The basis of mutual diplomatic recognition is the One China principle. Just like China broke ties with many Latin American countries because they recognized Taiwan, China should do the same in this case.
This is an important addition to changing facts on the ground, as the visit is political and diplomatic in nature and thus demands a diplomatic as well as real response.
This is an important addition to changing facts on the ground, as the visit is political and diplomatic in nature and thus demands a diplomatic as well as real response.
Biden is likely way more desparate than most of us or the Chinese leadership thought due to recession.
Superpower war is the ultimate crisis, and if anything we've ever seen between US and China tells us, is that China prepares way better for any crisis. And so, the US is willing to walk into total slaughter just to avoid short term humiliation.
F-35B "Big Decks"...?
What, there're F-35B "Small Decks" in the USN?
Or is that just an opportune wordplay to demonstrate some sense of testosterone-infused machismo?
No, it doesn't.
If that's the case then China should keep it's mouth shut until it can afford dignity.
My 2 cents:
US is trying to goad China into a violent/kinetic response, in order to unite its allies and otherwise would-be neutral countries to contain China.
In my opinion, China should not be goaded. China will be depicted as the bad guy anyway in media, no matter how justified they are. Heck, even the U.S. went to war to stop separatism. I don’t think it is in the _best_ interests of China in the long run to give a kinetic response due to the Pelosi visit. The punitive measures imposed by the other countries would lead to high costs to the Chinese. That would be detrimental to the rejuvenation of China. China should win by other means. Look, China is set to have the world’s biggest economy within a decade, perhaps even faster due to access to cheaper energy compared to Europe and RoW. China will be the market with highest tech products. Just look at the electric vehicles. 5G. High speed rail. This kind of provocation from the U.S. shows how desperate they are to fight China earlier and also to deflect the US government’s poor performance.
The difference between the Korean war and now, is that the opportunity cost is much higher for the Chinese. Paradoxically, the higher income a person has, the higher opportunity cost. That’s why some high-earning persons have harder time to take more time off compared to a below average-earning guy.
As for the legimacy of CCP and Xi Jinping, I believe the Chinese trust the government and Xi Jinping enough, looking back at how China handled corona compared to other countries, the economic growth and technological and infrastructure upgrade of the last decades. Look how the US tried to humiliate China by fanning the HK 2019 riots. They wanted HK Police or the PLA Garrison to give the world a “Tiananmen incident” #2. Who won in the end by keeping it cool?
China should however, definitely do something that shows strong assertion of its sovereignty – for example an armed overflight of Taiwan. However, it should not fire the first shot/missile, which is exactly what the U.S. wants. China, should it ever come to an armed unification, optimally a peaceful unification, is the one who chooses the exact timing when she is ready.
US is trying to goad China into a violent/kinetic response, in order to unite its allies and otherwise would-be neutral countries to contain China.
In my opinion, China should not be goaded. China will be depicted as the bad guy anyway in media, no matter how justified they are. Heck, even the U.S. went to war to stop separatism. I don’t think it is in the _best_ interests of China in the long run to give a kinetic response due to the Pelosi visit. The punitive measures imposed by the other countries would lead to high costs to the Chinese. That would be detrimental to the rejuvenation of China. China should win by other means. Look, China is set to have the world’s biggest economy within a decade, perhaps even faster due to access to cheaper energy compared to Europe and RoW. China will be the market with highest tech products. Just look at the electric vehicles. 5G. High speed rail. This kind of provocation from the U.S. shows how desperate they are to fight China earlier and also to deflect the US government’s poor performance.
The difference between the Korean war and now, is that the opportunity cost is much higher for the Chinese. Paradoxically, the higher income a person has, the higher opportunity cost. That’s why some high-earning persons have harder time to take more time off compared to a below average-earning guy.
As for the legimacy of CCP and Xi Jinping, I believe the Chinese trust the government and Xi Jinping enough, looking back at how China handled corona compared to other countries, the economic growth and technological and infrastructure upgrade of the last decades. Look how the US tried to humiliate China by fanning the HK 2019 riots. They wanted HK Police or the PLA Garrison to give the world a “Tiananmen incident” #2. Who won in the end by keeping it cool?
China should however, definitely do something that shows strong assertion of its sovereignty – for example an armed overflight of Taiwan. However, it should not fire the first shot/missile, which is exactly what the U.S. wants. China, should it ever come to an armed unification, optimally a peaceful unification, is the one who chooses the exact timing when she is ready.
Please leave a voice message, I have a very tight schedule of 8 hour sleep to squeeze in all that. I'll get back to you when I get a chance, or someone will call you back.
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