F-22 versus J-20 milestone comparison (production, test, operations)
- Thread starter Blitzo
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This is really a great analysis of how fast J-20 has progressed. I haven't posted on SDF for a few years, but I'm really impressed at how fast they've improved in the past few years. J-20 is the prime example of that.
Back when I first started actively following PLAAF in 2004, J-10 and F-22 had just started flying in operational service for their respective air forces. I was still trying to figure out why China opted for Su-30MKK instead of something like Su-30MKI. Now 18 years later, it seems like China made almost all the right decisions along the way. They didn't rely on the Russians for anything and stuck through their own programs. Now that we've reached about 100 J-20s in service, they have far surpassed Russians. In fact, I doubt Russia will have this many Su-57s in service by 2030.
I prefer to compare this program to F-35. X-35 first flew in 2000, which is 11 years before No. 2001. When it came to prototypes, the first F-35 flew in 2006, more than 7 years before the first flight of No. 2011. F-35 was first cleared for training, evaluations and tactics development in 2012, which was a little more than 3 years before 201x was handed to CFTE in 2015. The first F-35B achieved IOC in 2015 and F-35A in 2016. That was only a year or so ahead of when J-20 got handed over to FTTC. Depending on how we view IOC/FOC from the 2 countries, we can say that F-35A is at most 2 or 3 years ahead of J-20 in operational status. More impressively to me is that they are producing enough WS-10Cs to be able to support 4 J-20 production lines this year. If they actually produce 50 a year, PLAAF is going to take more deliveries of J-20 this year than USAF with F-35A. And by the end of 2025, we could be looking at 300 J-20s with PLAAF vs 640 F-22/F-35s with USAF.
They are also moving on from 4th gen production amazingly quickly. If CAC is shifting all the J-10C production to GAIG, domestic production of J-10s might be finished in 2 or 3 years. J-15/16 production will probably also stop by 2025/2026. USAF is taking deliveries of F-15EX until 2025. Who could've guessed PLAAF would end 4th generation deliveries at the same time as USAF?
And if they actually manage to get the 6th gen project into service by 2035, that might actually be ahead of NGAD since it probably will take 15 years from first demonstration prototype flying to achieving IOC.
Back when I first started actively following PLAAF in 2004, J-10 and F-22 had just started flying in operational service for their respective air forces. I was still trying to figure out why China opted for Su-30MKK instead of something like Su-30MKI. Now 18 years later, it seems like China made almost all the right decisions along the way. They didn't rely on the Russians for anything and stuck through their own programs. Now that we've reached about 100 J-20s in service, they have far surpassed Russians. In fact, I doubt Russia will have this many Su-57s in service by 2030.
I prefer to compare this program to F-35. X-35 first flew in 2000, which is 11 years before No. 2001. When it came to prototypes, the first F-35 flew in 2006, more than 7 years before the first flight of No. 2011. F-35 was first cleared for training, evaluations and tactics development in 2012, which was a little more than 3 years before 201x was handed to CFTE in 2015. The first F-35B achieved IOC in 2015 and F-35A in 2016. That was only a year or so ahead of when J-20 got handed over to FTTC. Depending on how we view IOC/FOC from the 2 countries, we can say that F-35A is at most 2 or 3 years ahead of J-20 in operational status. More impressively to me is that they are producing enough WS-10Cs to be able to support 4 J-20 production lines this year. If they actually produce 50 a year, PLAAF is going to take more deliveries of J-20 this year than USAF with F-35A. And by the end of 2025, we could be looking at 300 J-20s with PLAAF vs 640 F-22/F-35s with USAF.
They are also moving on from 4th gen production amazingly quickly. If CAC is shifting all the J-10C production to GAIG, domestic production of J-10s might be finished in 2 or 3 years. J-15/16 production will probably also stop by 2025/2026. USAF is taking deliveries of F-15EX until 2025. Who could've guessed PLAAF would end 4th generation deliveries at the same time as USAF?
And if they actually manage to get the 6th gen project into service by 2035, that might actually be ahead of NGAD since it probably will take 15 years from first demonstration prototype flying to achieving IOC.
China opted for the MKK because it was the only mature platform that could be acquired in short order. Tensions with Taiwan was high due to the election of Chen Shuibian and none of the fighter aircraft in the Chinese arsenal could fire active radar guided missile. Su-30MKK and R-77 were a life saver.
The USAF took a long time with the F-35 program because they didn't expect their opponents would be equipped with a large number of fifth generation aircraft before the 2030s (technically they were right about Russia). Now that J-20 has entered service in four theater commands and triple digits, USAF has fast tracked the NGAD program. Anything short of absolute generation gap dominance is considered a failure by an air force with a standard as high as that of USAF.
I am not quite as optimistic in regards to J-20 production speed -- I think reaching 300 J-20s might take around 2027, and I also am doubtful if Flanker production will stop in 2025/26.
Of course, 300 J-20s by 2027 would still be very very impressive, and in terms of 5th generation fighters, by 2027 production of J-XY and J-XZ would likely have begun as well.
I have a feeling that J-15B, J-15D, J-16 and J-16D production (in particular the J-15B/D and J-16D) might see Flanker production continue to the late 2020s.
Rumours about J-10D and J-11D also make it unclear as to when J-10 and Flanker production will actually end.
As for NGAD and the PLA 6th gen effort, I don't think it will take the US 15 years to go from prototype flight to IOC. They've learned their lesson from the F-22 and F-35 programs, and I expect digital design, rapid prototyping, and more modern industry to allow them to perhaps shrink that time by half.
Of course, I also expect the same will be true of the PLA's 6th gen effort.
Personally I think the NGAD and PLA 6th gen effort (in terms of their primary manned fighter elements) may enter service within 1-2 years of each other, but that the NGAD will probably be using a more advanced/intended powerplant than the PLA fighter.
I'm impressed by how optimistic you're about the status and trajectory of PLAAF in terms of its combat aircraft. What a difference a few years of rest have made! Of course, this changed perception is certainly grounded in the developments of China's military aircraft and facts on the ground.
The only significant difference I have with your assessment above is with regards to the production of J-15/J-16. I just don't think they will stop production by 2025/2026. J-16/J-16D/J-15B/J-15D have their respective roles in the PLAAF/PLANAF lineups that can not be replaced by J-20/J-35. They play complementary roles to J-20/J-35. With China's first CATOBAR carrier in service by 2025 and J-35 will begin production after 2025, J-15B/J-15D will have quite some life in them, with still more CATOBAR carriers coming into service. Likewise, J-16/J-16D are unlikely to be replaced by more J-20's. In fact, one can argue that there needs to be a ratio to be maintained between J-20 and J-16, therefore, significantly increased production of J-20's calls for increased production of J-16/J-16D.
I agree that Flanker production will continue beyond 2025/26, due to the demand of 16/16D, 15B/15D.
But I think J-16/16D will reach a natural conclusion sometime in the mid to late 2020s, and increased J-20 production won't necessarily mean an increase in J-16/16D production.
J-20 and J-16/16D are certainly complementary to each other, but that's because J-16/16D are the best that the Chinese aerospace industry can produce in terms of a heavy weight multirole 4.5 gen fighter and EW/ECM/SEAD aircraft, respectively.
Going into the late 2020s, Much of J-16's role in terms of new production aircraft types, could be inherited by a combination of J-20, J-XZ (land based J-XY/35), UCAVs, and J-16D's role could be inherited by a combination of standard J-20, J-XZ, UAVs and perhaps even a new dedicated J-20 EW/ECM variant produced in small numbers.
J-16s will of course remain in service for many years after the late 2020s, but the role it fulfills will likely be taken up by new build airframes of more modern types.
It's a weird thing. I go away for 5 years due to personal reasons. I still followed things like Deino's twitter account, but nothing as closely. Over this time, J-20 went from introduced in FTTC to have 4 production lines. J-10C went from being new and fresh to being shoved to the away side at Guizhou. Y-20 production actually taking off. Z-20s appearing everywhere. J-16s becoming the most powerful flanker out there. Finally having domestic engine options for pretty much everything. Everything that we were waiting on since late 2000s have shown up. Even conceptually and training wise, they seem to have made such a huge step forward. There was no way they could've sustained sending 20 to 30 aircraft next to Taiwan day after day back 5 years ago. The emergence of all these dedicated EW fighter project is also going to be true force multiplier. And in J20B, they have something that seems to be conceptually ahead of everyone else.
It's almost sad for me to say this, but J-10 has become like a stepping stone for PLAAF. Especially J-10B/C. They've become like 052B/C. They are both nice platforms, but are not really needed once J-20 production is ramped up. I could imagine back in 2017 that CAC could pawn off J-10 production to another factory so quickly. Especially since J-10 did not have the luxury of domestic engine option until the last couple of years. For the longest time, I thought they had the capability of producing 50+ J-10s a year, but were held back by number of AL-31FN deliveries from Saturn. I think flanker productions will go on a few more years, but the progress of next generation fighter bomber and UCAV will stop their production in 5 years.
I know I'm quite optimistic thinking that they will be able to ramp up to 50 J-20s a year. Not really sure what PLAAF's budget is. Not really sure what the production numbers for WS-10 will look like. But I think in the second half of last year, they finally reached a pretty solid production level with J-20. Even if they just sustain that, they will probably be at 40 a year this year and reach 50 in a couple of years. I don't see why they will push J-10s to Guizhou and set up 4 J-20 production lines unless they plan to ramp up production this year. Even if they end up average 40 a year, they will have 300 by the end of 2026 + whatever number of J-35s. That would be pretty impressive. I really didn't expect them to ramp up J-20 production before WS-15 is ready. I guess they must have seen J-20 vs 4th generation aircraft in training and found out the gap between them.
As for NGAD. I don't think they are going to pick a design for a next generation fighter jet without a competition. That's just not how things work in America. This is not the 60s or the 70s. There is so much bureaucracy now. It costs a lot of money to develop a new generation fighter jet and there will be a competition between LockMart and Boeing. Once that happens, it will take a few more years for the first prototype to roll out. All the trials of that aircraft with be played out in public. And then, it will take 5+ years for that aircraft to reach IOC. That's why they have said they expect NGAD to replace F-22 in the 2030s. I think China's goal of 6th generation aircraft by 2035 is very aggressive. But since they've hit every other milestone, I don't see them missing this one. I agree that NGAD will likely be more advanced than China's 6th gen. I also expect the gap between 5th and 6th to be a lot less than 4th and 5th. So I do expect both air forces to still be procuring 5th generation aircraft for a while. After all, the current procurement rate for F-35A suggests that USAF will be buying them until 2050!
Well said. A nice little summary of the advancements in the last five years.
I certainly hope your more upbeat projection of J-20 production rate will come to materialize. That would be something of a milestone. China will for the first time produce such an advanced fighter aircraft at such a high rate for so many years. That experience would be valuable.
As for the 6th gen and NGAD, one thing is certain: China will be much more readier than when they started developing J-20. The various subsystems, including materials, electronics and engine, are no doubt at different stages of R&D or exploration. The experiences of operating J-20, in particular the J-20B (with drones, say), will give PLAAF a lot of insights that they didn't have in equivalence when J-20 was started.
I know I have been tossing around the idea/projection that they should produce a lot of J-16J-16D/J-15B/J-15D in coming years, say 500-600 between them, without giving much of reasoning behind the arguments. I'll give it a try here.
If I may, my arguments can be boiled down to replace, expand and add to the existing fleet of fighter bomber and multi-role aircraft.
First, J-16 will need to replace the existing JH-7/JH-7A and Su-MKK/Su-MKK2 fleet over time, which are over 20 years old. Currently, they have anywhere between 200 and 250 JH-7/JH-7A and 100 Su-MKK/Su-MKK2 in PLAAF and PLANAF. That's total 300-350 aircraft to replace.
Second, PLAAF is transitioning into a more offensive-oriented air force, which means they need more aircraft in strike role or multrole compared with the existing force structure and relative to the air-to-air platforms.
Lastly, these aircraft also add new capabilities. J-16D/J-15B/J-15D definitely bring new capabilities that no other aircraft in their fleet have. J-16 are also conducting in multiple roles in large numbers and high frequencies, as we certainly can see in the fly-around Taiwan and into the Pacific, which call for larger fleet and wear out their life hours more quickly. The J-16 these days and going forwards are doing a lot of patrolling and presence, for which PLAAF neither has the number nor the desire to let J-20 do in the foreseeable future. Not until J-20 in service is much higher in number and, I'd say, after the upgraded version of J-20 (with WS-15 and other upgrades) is commissioned.
Another way to look at it, the role of J-16 in PLAAF is more analogous to that of F-16 in USAF. The USAF has a lot of more F-16's than F-15's. Some people may liken J-10 to F-16 in their respective roles, but we know J-10 can not perform that role, at least from payload and range standpoints.
A legitimate challenge to my above assertion would be China will have more advanced multi-role aircraft or fighter bombers to replace J-16/J-15 before their production numbers reach anywhere close to what I suggest. I would certainly agree that J-16/J-15 will be eventually replaced by more advanced aircraft as you suggested above. It's just that I don't see that is happening soon enough, as in the case of J-20 or any other replacements emerging in the future. Meanwhile, PLAAF/PLANAF need to replace, expand their existing fleet now and continuously.
I absolutely agree with the vital role that J-16D, J-15B and J-15D will bring to the PLA, and I do agree that because of those factors, Flanker production is likely to continue for a number of years until the later part of this decade.
However, in terms of replacing current JH-7/As and replacing Su-30s, (some 300-350 aircraft), I do not think those need to be, nor should be, wholly replaced by J-16.
Instead, I think those aircraft are best replaced by a combination of J-16s, J-20s, J-XZs (land based J-XY/J-35), and UCAVs.
Putting it another way, I can see them building another 300-350 Flankers -- composed mostly of J-16D, J-15B, J-15D, and a small number of standard J-16s... with the standard J-16s being used to partially replace some of the oldest Su-30s or JH-7/As.
However, the bulk of the remaining Su-30s and JH-7/As IMO should replaced by J-20s, J-XZs, and UCAVs.