and potentially that long rumored JH-xx?
F-22 versus J-20 milestone comparison (production, test, operations)
- Thread starter Blitzo
- Start date
Yeah, I'm not really feeling tphuang's and Bltizo's negativity about China's 6th gen powerplant, given the much higher industrial and knowledge base China is operating from now.
I don't think they're being negative. Being cautious and a little conservative would be the more appropriate description. I sometimes am willing to be a bit more bullish based on the track records and the overall level of development of related technologies and industries, given that we don't usually have very specific information of the program on timely basis. Having said that, being a bit more cautious and adjust your assessment as we learn more about the program is the more professional way. After all, 6th gen is still at least a decade and half away.
"Negative" is relative.
I think the PLA's 6th gen fighter probably won't have to wait as long for its intended powerplant as the J-20 will end up waiting for WS-15.
But I still expect the USAF's NGAD to receive its intended powerplant earlier than the PLA's 6th gen fighter will receive its intended powerplant.
I guess we’ll see. The US is almost certainly further along in their development of variable cycle technologies, but from what I can tell they’re still using a 6 stage high pressure compressor based design. I suspect the direction they’re headed is to use their third air stream to provide enough cooling to run the engine hotter in order to get to thrust gain targets. *IF* that 4 stage compressor design we saw is identical to that verification engine core we have a picture of for China’s next generation engine 15 T:W ratio engine, the direction China’s next generation engine is head will be very different from the AETP.
At this stage, I think the much safer bet and "null hypothesis" is that the USAF NGAD will receive its intended powerplant with a substantially smaller delay/gap in time (if any) compared to the PLA's 6th gen effort -- but that the PLA's 6th gen effort will likely not need to wait as long for its intended powerplant as the J-20 has had to wait for WS-15.
As we get closer to 2030 I expect a clearer picture to emerge.
But at this stage, I think my suggestion is not too conservative and not too optimistic.
It’s a fair determination. I’m just noting some of the details involved with each program. I do think we might be seeing a fork in the technological base each country is pursuing here.
My thoughts on why it's important for CAC to increase production on J-20. When we talk about R&D, there are R&D involved into new product and R&D into existing product. For both cases, there are R&D involved in developing/improving/supporting product as well R&D in improving production methodology to both increase volume and reduce cost.
A great example of this is what Airbus is doing with the A320NEO series. They've already done the hard work of developing and certifying the aircraft. However, they have an even bigger task of ramping up production. In order to do so, they shifted engineering resources from improving products to just improving the process in which they output A320NEO series.
As we apply this to CAC, I see this as a steady process for CAC/AVIC1 to demonstrate it can build modern aircraft quickly and efficiently. America has had decades of experience in doing so. They were capable of building 500 F-16s a year during its peak. Now, they are still capable of building 160 F-35s a year. As we look at CAC ramping up production of J-20, it takes a very large investment from CAC and everyone in the supply chain. One impressive part is how they are able to now ramp up the production of WS-10 series. The next question is can they ramp it up even higher to support even more J-20s and flankers. This would apply to all of the suppliers. For CAC, they've shown they can probably produce 30+ J-20s a year. With another dedicated J-20 production line, can they keep up building 1 j-20 a month per assembly line? That's a big question.
Large anticipated order allows CAC and suppliers to put engineering resources into speeding up production and making things more automated which will hopefully allow for consistency in product. I feel like they have already been doing this for many years. CAC has kept up the production rate in the 30s to 40s from J-6 to J-7s to J-10s and now to J-20. As their aircraft continues to improve, the workmanship of the aircraft have also improved. The next step is just to make sure they can consistently do this as higher volume. That's as much of a leap for their industrial capabilities as developing 6th gen fighter.
A great example of this is what Airbus is doing with the A320NEO series. They've already done the hard work of developing and certifying the aircraft. However, they have an even bigger task of ramping up production. In order to do so, they shifted engineering resources from improving products to just improving the process in which they output A320NEO series.
As we apply this to CAC, I see this as a steady process for CAC/AVIC1 to demonstrate it can build modern aircraft quickly and efficiently. America has had decades of experience in doing so. They were capable of building 500 F-16s a year during its peak. Now, they are still capable of building 160 F-35s a year. As we look at CAC ramping up production of J-20, it takes a very large investment from CAC and everyone in the supply chain. One impressive part is how they are able to now ramp up the production of WS-10 series. The next question is can they ramp it up even higher to support even more J-20s and flankers. This would apply to all of the suppliers. For CAC, they've shown they can probably produce 30+ J-20s a year. With another dedicated J-20 production line, can they keep up building 1 j-20 a month per assembly line? That's a big question.
Large anticipated order allows CAC and suppliers to put engineering resources into speeding up production and making things more automated which will hopefully allow for consistency in product. I feel like they have already been doing this for many years. CAC has kept up the production rate in the 30s to 40s from J-6 to J-7s to J-10s and now to J-20. As their aircraft continues to improve, the workmanship of the aircraft have also improved. The next step is just to make sure they can consistently do this as higher volume. That's as much of a leap for their industrial capabilities as developing 6th gen fighter.
A sustained high production rate of an advanced aircraft like J-20 for many years will be a huge investment into the entire supply chain, that is, the suppliers of CAC, the suppliers to the first-tier suppliers, etc, which enable them to further invest in automation, hire and train more engineers and workers, as well as invest in R&D for existing and new technologies. It will eventually result in a huge leap forward of China's military aircraft industry and beyond. Something China hasn't had quite the experience so far.
If we compare the shipping industry and aircraft industry in China and the US, Chinese surface combat ships are so much more cost effective than the US ones at comparable quality and capability, largely because China has such a large shipping industry and therefore can leverage the scale of the infrastructure and supply chain into military shipbuilding. The situation is almost the opposite in aerospace. The US has both a very large commercial aviation sector and a very large military aircraft sector. They therefore benefit from the existing infrastructure, supply chain and scale. China still has quite some distance to go from catching up with the US aerospace industry.
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I agree with this assessment. I would actually go as far as to say that China is in the process of overtaking the US in terms of naval capability. It still has some ways to go, but with the backing of the commercial industry behind them, the talent and depth is clearly there to do so. I also believe the US will always maintain some advantage is aerospace design and manufacturing just due to the sheer scale of aviation industry they have.