F-22 versus J-20 milestone comparison (production, test, operations)

Blitzo

Lieutenant General
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But what is that expected number according to this forecasting methodology? (A ballpark number is fine.)

We don't have any rumours to guide us, only our own intuition and estimates.

I personally think a final production run of over 500 aircraft seems plausible, with production to continue into the mid 2030s, but that is only my personal take.

Needless to say, the production rate going forwards would alter based on what the final production run is. A higher intended production run is likely going to result in a higher peak sustained production rate as well as the duration in which that peak is sustained.
 

Richard Santos

Captain
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Using the F-22’s developmental timeline to bench mark those of the J20 is comparing apples and oranges. The F22 was a cold war artifact that was effectively orphaned and without a home with the fall of the USSR, amidst both major reduction in USAF’s development and procurement budget, as well as major disturbance to the organization of the aerospace supply chain. It is not unreasonable to say the F22 actually took twice as long to reach IOC from the first prototype flight than would have been the case of the cold war continued.
 

Blitzo

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Using the F-22’s developmental timeline to bench mark those of the J20 is comparing apples and oranges. The F22 was a cold war artifact that was effectively orphaned and without a home with the fall of the USSR, amidst both major reduction in USAF’s development and procurement budget, as well as major disturbance to the organization of the aerospace supply chain. It is not unreasonable to say the F22 actually took twice as long to reach IOC from the first prototype flight than would have been the case of the cold war continued.

"We can see that the years elapsed for J-20 to progress to certain milestones is somewhat faster than F-22 -- but this should not be interpreted as a sign of greater efficiency on the part of J-20 from an industry/technology point of view, as we must recall that the bulk of F-22's development was undertaken in the immediate post cold war era where funding for it was consistently cut, as well as a general reduced sense of urgency. Meanwhile, for J-20's development, I suspect neither urgency nor funding was hard to find."

In literally the opening post.


The purpose of this isn't to compare between F-22 and J-20 as programs and to consider which one was "better" or more "efficient" but rather to see how F-22s experience could be used to guide our predictions for J-20 going forwards, especially for assessing a floor and a reasonable estimate for what its annual production rate in the near to medium term future may become.
 

caohailiang

Junior Member
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- J-20 10th airframe first flight (from s/n 2011), likely late 2015 to early 2016

- J-20 30th airframe first flight, unknown, possibly 2017

- J-20 IOC estimated in 2018. 50th airframe first flight, possibly 2018

- J-20 FOC, unclear but possibly 2019-2020 with 9th brigade. 100th airframe first flight yet to occur.
imho these numbers seem odd. If by 2018 there are 50 airframes how come after almost 3 years there are still less than 100? i am assuming the production rate will only go up, given urgency and funding?

and i remember reviewing early 2020 discussion in the J20 thread, the general opinion was more like by end of 2019 there are maybe 40 of them. Back then there were 18 confirmed s/n, and rumor just came out that 1st ab start receiving new airframes.

So any new evidence to suggest by 2018 they already have 50??
 

Volpler11

Junior Member
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Assuming the training brigades got all the earliest planes, that would account for 14 planes. It is most likely 9th brigade got the first 10 by early 2019. That would make 30 J-20 by end of 2018, 40 by end of 2019, 50 by end of 2020 at minimum.
 

Blitzo

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Most probably thats whats going to happen. Its normal when you have these vs threads.

Considering I've written it pretty clearly in the opening post, either people cannot read or people just lack the ability to resist.
 

Blitzo

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
Registered Member
imho these numbers seem odd. If by 2018 there are 50 airframes how come after almost 3 years there are still less than 100? i am assuming the production rate will only go up, given urgency and funding?

and i remember reviewing early 2020 discussion in the J20 thread, the general opinion was more like by end of 2019 there are maybe 40 of them. Back then there were 18 confirmed s/n, and rumor just came out that 1st ab start receiving new airframes.

So any new evidence to suggest by 2018 they already have 50??

By the end of 2021 I expect about 90 aircraft would have flown.

Recall again that this is including the 201X/2X/3X prototypes, not only production aircraft intended for service, and the number refers to "aircraft number flown" not "aircraft number delivered".

So by end of 2018, I am saying up to 50 aircraft (including 201X/2X prototypes) would have flown by that point.
It does not mean that 50 operational aircraft were delivered to the air force.
 

The Observer

Junior Member
Registered Member
The purpose of this isn't to compare between F-22 and J-20 as programs and to consider which one was "better" or more "efficient" but rather to see how F-22s experience could be used to guide our predictions for J-20 going forwards, especially for assessing a floor and a reasonable estimate for what its annual production rate in the near to medium term future may become.

To be honest, I failed to see how F-22 experience could be used to guide our predictions for J-20 going forwards. These are 2 different programs from 2 different nations, done at different times with different priorities, and with different industrial bases.

How are we going to infer anything transferrable between the 2 programs? At most, we have the old F-22 production plan before the whole thing got cut, and then we'll have to pray China has a similar pathway in mind. Otherwise the whole point of this thread is moot.
 
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