For one, I expect the total final production run of J-20 airframes to be greater than F-22's 195.
But what is that expected number according to this forecasting methodology? (A ballpark number is fine.)
For one, I expect the total final production run of J-20 airframes to be greater than F-22's 195.
But what is that expected number according to this forecasting methodology? (A ballpark number is fine.)
Using the F-22’s developmental timeline to bench mark those of the J20 is comparing apples and oranges. The F22 was a cold war artifact that was effectively orphaned and without a home with the fall of the USSR, amidst both major reduction in USAF’s development and procurement budget, as well as major disturbance to the organization of the aerospace supply chain. It is not unreasonable to say the F22 actually took twice as long to reach IOC from the first prototype flight than would have been the case of the cold war continued.
- J-20 10th airframe first flight (from s/n 2011), likely late 2015 to early 2016
- J-20 30th airframe first flight, unknown, possibly 2017
- J-20 IOC estimated in 2018. 50th airframe first flight, possibly 2018
imho these numbers seem odd. If by 2018 there are 50 airframes how come after almost 3 years there are still less than 100? i am assuming the production rate will only go up, given urgency and funding?- J-20 FOC, unclear but possibly 2019-2020 with 9th brigade. 100th airframe first flight yet to occur.
Most probably thats whats going to happen. Its normal when you have these vs threads.The purpose of this isn't to compare between F-22 and J-20 as programs and to consider which one was "better" or more "efficient"
Most probably thats whats going to happen. Its normal when you have these vs threads.
imho these numbers seem odd. If by 2018 there are 50 airframes how come after almost 3 years there are still less than 100? i am assuming the production rate will only go up, given urgency and funding?
and i remember reviewing early 2020 discussion in the J20 thread, the general opinion was more like by end of 2019 there are maybe 40 of them. Back then there were 18 confirmed s/n, and rumor just came out that 1st ab start receiving new airframes.
So any new evidence to suggest by 2018 they already have 50??
The purpose of this isn't to compare between F-22 and J-20 as programs and to consider which one was "better" or more "efficient" but rather to see how F-22s experience could be used to guide our predictions for J-20 going forwards, especially for assessing a floor and a reasonable estimate for what its annual production rate in the near to medium term future may become.