Discussing long term impacts of Ukraine crisis

TK3600

Major
Registered Member
To be fair it was Putin who last week was waging this war half assed and held back Russian firepower expecting collapse of Ukrainian resistance. Which to me is asinine as since 2014 Ukraine has become more and more anti-Russian. After the fiascos of last week Putin has finally taken the gloves off his military and we are seeing progress. What will they do with eventual Ukrainian insurgency is anyone’s guess. The best bet is simply make Ukraine a landlock broke nation. Turn the south and East into a pro Russian state. Occupation of all of Ukraine will be Chechnya on steroids. The west will flood the insurgents with manpads and atgms which is lethal to any occupying force. The current makeup of the Russian military won’t be able to handle an occupation of all Ukraine. If west Ukraine steps out of line use the Israeli tactic of “mowing the grass,” with intense bombardment and limited offensives.
This isn't Afghan. Anyone trying to sent weapons will be at Russia's doorstep. In other words I dare them. Russia would attack the convoy, and NATO would be too cucked to respond with war. Then it would further diminish trust in NATO.
 

ArmchairAnalyst

Junior Member
Registered Member
This isn't Afghan. Anyone trying to sent weapons will be at Russia's doorstep. In other words I dare them. Russia would attack the convoy, and NATO would be too cucked to respond with war. Then it would further diminish trust in NATO.
The Afghan way isn't the only one.
Insurrection and unrest comes in many forms.
Russia would need to keep the Ukrainians in (and oppressed) and any outside help or influence out.
Short of population resettlement or (unthinkable) outright genocide :(
 

weig2000

Captain
Note: The essay below was solicited by the editorial page of a major US newspaper, and then rejected because it did not fit its prevailing narrative. Not only are major channels of discussion closed off to dissenting views in the United States, but major news sources are blocked by internet service providers. Interfax, the post-Communist independent news service, is inaccessible from Western IP addresses, but accessible through Hong Kong, for example. The West is fighting for democracy, but using the propaganda and press control methods of authoritarian regimes.

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ArmchairAnalyst

Junior Member
Registered Member
Note: The essay below was solicited by the editorial page of a major US newspaper, and then rejected because it did not fit its prevailing narrative. Not only are major channels of discussion closed off to dissenting views in the United States, but major news sources are blocked by internet service providers. Interfax, the post-Communist independent news service, is inaccessible from Western IP addresses, but accessible through Hong Kong, for example. The West is fighting for democracy, but using the propaganda and press control methods of authoritarian regimes.

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A very good and nuanced essay, thanks.
 

FriedButter

Colonel
Registered Member
After 2 years of hating Indians, in one week of this war they have completely redeemed themselves in my eyes. I take back all the bad things I ever said about them.

Lmao the whole video is such a shit show. The Host is berating Daniel McAdams on the top right but the only issue is Daniel McAdams is the person on the bottom right. Meanwhile, the real Daniel McAdams is completely shocked and confused. So the host was actually arguing with top right Bohdan Nahaylo the whole time as the real Daniel had his mic muted.
 
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Abominable

Major
Registered Member
Lmao the whole video is such a shit show. The Host is berating Daniel McAdams on the top right but the only issue is Daniel McAdams is the person on the bottom right. Meanwhile, the real Daniel McAdams is completely shocked and confused. So the host was actually arguing with top right Bohdan Nahaylo the whole time as the real Daniel had his mic muted.
They both look the same to him...
 

daifo

Major
Registered Member
i dont think the word un reliable will be correct as Russian processors are used in aviation systems that can stay in air for 24hours or more.
Rostec has greater chance in success as they uniting all the hard science behind manufacturing.
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There problem will be the same as the Chinese... being able to fabricate advance chips without western/us inputs
 

HereToSeePics

Junior Member
Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
Registered Member
Sounds logical still the Empire can threaten to fire crazily to ALL directions, earth scorching strategy... what deter them to try to threaten that if China employs such scheme then they will shut China from dollar use / SWIFT altogether?

I think the only situation that we all really don't know in precise if such threat is deployable and whether or not China may also threaten back to go nuclear... if the Empire goes that far then China will sever the dollar use and accept no dollar/euro/pound sterling/etc for China's product.

Yes, financial MAD scenario. I think theres still enough cool heads at the to grasp what this will do the USD, western financial markets and their savings/investments if the United States decides to sanction Chinese currency reserves and force a monetary decoupling. And it wont be a slow gradual one either, if it happens, the results will be fast and brutal as everyone dumps USD or Yuan or EU debt. Nothing will be spared on either the western side or Chinese side.


I just noticed this article today -
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The situation is basically Russia, China, EU, Japan, SK, Afghanistan, OPEC countries, etc loaned the United States money and the US suddenly said we won't repay Russia and Afghanistan. All the other lenders are going to get nervous. If this a US Credit Card example and you default on one card, all your other lenders will raise your interest rate, limit further credit or close your account. Though this is a vastly oversimplified example right now because the EU, Japan and SK are standing behind the United States, but definitely has raised red flags for China, UAE/SA and LATAM countries.


Unfortunately because of China's trade surpluses and vast amount of accumulated reserves, they don't have too many good options. No amount of gold/silver/precious metals can soak up the amount of FX reserves they have, converting it all to yuan will cause the yuan to appreciate to the level where few countries can afford China's exports. They can purchase assets abroad, but those assets are at risk of sanctions, they can purchase domestic assets/build infrastructure, but all that money flowing back home will drive up inflation. They can stock up on commodities, but theres only so much you can buy and hold in china due to logistics, storage costs, shelf life, etc.


China basically has a lot of everyone else's money and limited options on spending it all rapidly.
 
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