That's what BRI investments are.
Discussing long term impacts of Ukraine crisis
- Thread starter sndef888
- Start date
It takes time to mitigate sanctions.
Any bank using CIPS to circumvent Swift would also face the risk of secondary sanctions, said Nicholas Turner, a lawyer at Steptoe & Johnson LLP. “A secondary sanction applies to pretty ordinary commercial activity,” he said.
One longer-term option, if Western sanctions stay in place and cause long-term damage to the Russian economy and China’s strategic interests, would be for Beijing to tap smaller lenders to deal with Russia.
“It’s very easy to create a lot of single-purpose banks just to engage in sanction evading activities to help China’s friends,” said Prof. Chen. “If the conflict in Ukraine lasts for a few years, a number of such small single-purpose banks could be created as vehicles.”
Some small Chinese banks have previously facilitated trade with sanctioned countries such as North Korea and Iran.
In 2009 the oil major China National Petroleum Corp. bought a Xinjiang-based commercial bank, which was later renamed Bank of Kunlun. After that, the bank relied on deposits and other businesses from the CNPC family of companies, according to its annual reports.
In 2012, the Treasury Department sanctioned Bank of Kunlun, together with an Iraqi bank, for helping Iranian banks move millions of dollars, and barred it from accessing the U.S. financial system. Bank of Kunlun has in recent years wound down its activities in Iran, as China diversifies its energy sources.
“Even if Kunlun Bank is sanctioned by the U.S. and other countries, what’s the damage? Nothing. You have no business in any of the developed countries to begin with,” said Prof. Chen, who was an independent director of , the listed arm of CNPC, between 2011 and 2017.
Any bank using CIPS to circumvent Swift would also face the risk of secondary sanctions, said Nicholas Turner, a lawyer at Steptoe & Johnson LLP. “A secondary sanction applies to pretty ordinary commercial activity,” he said.
One longer-term option, if Western sanctions stay in place and cause long-term damage to the Russian economy and China’s strategic interests, would be for Beijing to tap smaller lenders to deal with Russia.
“It’s very easy to create a lot of single-purpose banks just to engage in sanction evading activities to help China’s friends,” said Prof. Chen. “If the conflict in Ukraine lasts for a few years, a number of such small single-purpose banks could be created as vehicles.”
Some small Chinese banks have previously facilitated trade with sanctioned countries such as North Korea and Iran.
In 2009 the oil major China National Petroleum Corp. bought a Xinjiang-based commercial bank, which was later renamed Bank of Kunlun. After that, the bank relied on deposits and other businesses from the CNPC family of companies, according to its annual reports.
In 2012, the Treasury Department sanctioned Bank of Kunlun, together with an Iraqi bank, for helping Iranian banks move millions of dollars, and barred it from accessing the U.S. financial system. Bank of Kunlun has in recent years wound down its activities in Iran, as China diversifies its energy sources.
“Even if Kunlun Bank is sanctioned by the U.S. and other countries, what’s the damage? Nothing. You have no business in any of the developed countries to begin with,” said Prof. Chen, who was an independent director of , the listed arm of CNPC, between 2011 and 2017.
How so? There's only so much money you can dump into BRI countries before it starts leaking out into corruption, waste and local inflation.
Syria is the territory of Russia and borders Russia? The level of interest is not the same.
Ukrainians don't uniformly hate Russians. Ethnic Russian Ukrainians are OK with Russia.The Afghan way isn't the only one.
Insurrection and unrest comes in many forms.
Russia would need to keep the Ukrainians in (and oppressed) and any outside help or influence out.
Short of population resettlement or (unthinkable) outright genocide
Russia also doesn't need to keep Ukrainians in. They can sign a treaty with the new West Ukraine for a population transfer: anyone wanting to move to west Ukraine can move there within X time, anyone wanting to move to East Ukraine can also do so. Afterwards border is closed. Most Ukrainian speakers would take the offer and leave, those who don't are clearly OK with Russians or Russian Ukrainians running the show.
Now the burden would be on West Ukraine to attack East Ukraine.
they gave 2025 start date. it may be small batch production and later full Fab. they are not going to make chips outside there control. Rostec will not start a project if they dont have reasonable chance of completing it.
they are going into basics of machines tools.
they do cross borders to see the picture on the ground. thats the reason Su-24 got shot down but more advance planes like Su-34 Turks not manage to shot down. if it was simple UAV or less advanced aircraft. Turks would have easily shot down. you really need to Study Syrian war. Russia intention was never a fast victory but slow cleanup that nothing later pops up. this safety allowed them to vastly expand the airbase there and provide enough economic activity in the area that things atleast get normal.
Russia has a great opportunity for a major reform that keeps their pride and sales intact:
1. retiring some obsolete naval capability
2. Aerospace joint ventures that are kept quiet for Chinese participation and publically uses major Russian components.
3. Diplomacy to reduce pressure on other fronts.
Specific proposals:
1. Export oriented joint venture on a 4++ gen Flanker project "Su-36" / "J-16B" with modernized "Chinese inspired" radar, dual munitions capability, dual compatible datalinks, Russian engines. Export money split by value of components.
2. Public joint venture on a modernized low level heavy supersonic bomber project that China pays 50/50 "Tu-23"/"H-10" with a few hundred models split between China and Russia. Basically a modernized Tu-22M with new sensors, dual munitions, Russian engines with ToT licensing, etc. Tu-22M is the Russian Navy workhorse bomber, it works, it's much better once modernized than H-6K, so it's win-win. US still uses B-1s after all and in fact B-1s are the heaviest used US ground attack aircraft.
3. Export oriented helicopter joint venture where Russia takes the lead. China can provide supporting components with shared IP as a supplier. This helps Russia sell.
4. Cancel Su-47 and buy into the J-35 as a joint production partner for export and self use. Make a Russian version "Su-48" with Russian engines and dual capability weapons. Keep the Su-57 and call J-35 "low end" of a 5th gen Hi-Lo strategy if they want to sell better.
5. Save money on the navy by giving up on Kuznetzov, giving up on their older destroyers, and instead transition to become a more European style navy with LHD as the biggest ship and a focus on frigates as their surface navy. Focus on subs, Arctic and bastion protection as the strategy. They can buy big ships from China and make the rest.
6. Save money on the army with diplomacy. This might be controversial but: get China and maybe even North Korea to join CSTO as observers. This doesn't commit China to a public alliance but shows China is highly concerned about maintaining Russian sovereignty.
They don't have to. They can bomb the convoys the moment they cross the border.
Russia will likely enforce a "demilitarisation" zone covering all of Ukraine that it won't annex. And Russia will also likely install a puppet in office to run the client state with a mandate to "protect its sovereignty". The gloves have come off. Putin won't accept that kind of bullshit anymore.
I think it would be safe to assume that the large majority of Ukrainians resent or even hate Russia right now.
If Ukraine is partitioned unilaterally by Russia, it would also be safe to assume that this resentment won't be diminished anytime soon making Ukrainian cooperation next to impossible. Russia would very likely have to enforce it at gunpoint.
The two parts would likely never be recognised as independant countries by most other countries (or the UN) if done unilaterally by Russia. The result: A frozen conflict boiling and waiting to explode down the line.
But yes, you are definitely right that it's one way of doing population resettlement.
Sometimes it works out somewhat reasonable like between Greece/Turkey in 1923:
Sometimes it leads to catastrophic loss of lives, war and future conflict like the partition of India in 1947:
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