Discussing long term impacts of Ukraine crisis

JamesRed

JamesRed

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It's quite possible that the Russian economy will benefit from a hard break from the West, where Russia imposes reciprocal sanction rather than the current situation where the West sanctioned Russia but continued to proliferate its digital goods and corporations inside Russia, effectively plundering its wealth. The hard break could be an impetus for Russian tech entrepreneurs to proliferate a home-grown Russian tech ecosystem.
 
mossen

mossen

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JamesRed said:
The hard break could be an impetus for Russian tech entrepreneurs to proliferate a home-grown Russian tech ecosystem.
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I don't think so.

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Russia tried to create their own CPUs ("Elbrus") but the interior ministry caused a minor scandal by saying they were unreliable and they preferred intel. What is more likely to happen is that Russia's dependence on Chinese tech deepens, an outcome that the Russians have tried to avoid but now no longer looks to have much choice.
 
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pmc

Major
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mossen said:
I don't think so.

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Russia tried to create their own CPUs ("Elbrus") but the interior ministry caused a minor scandal by saying they were unreliable and they preferred intel. What is more likely to happen is that Russia's dependence on Chinese tech deepens, an outcome that the Russians have tried to avoid but now no longer looks to have much choice.
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i dont think the word un reliable will be correct as Russian processors are used in aviation systems that can stay in air for 24hours or more.
Rostec has greater chance in success as they uniting all the hard science behind manufacturing.
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enroger

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I think Putin may need a complete reassessment of capabilities of Ru armed forces, he can no longer trust his generals to say such and such...

I can see RuAF pit against PLAAF in a no hold bar all out air exercise J-20 vs Su-57, no more saving faces, lets see exactly how good RuAF is
 
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Overbom

Brigadier
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enroger said:
I think Putin may need a complete reassessment of capabilities of Ru armed forces, he can no longer trust his generals to say such and such...
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Its Putin who put them in that position. He chose the Defence Minister

And this is the guy who has been in charge since the 90s with a brief absence in the 2000s. So the blame is mostly on him. For example, where was the political will to go against interest groups lobbying and get Chinese weapons/platforms until the domestic industry could produce them?

In anycase, the whole military (except Navy?) needs a major reform in many areas.
Evaluation/Procurement, R&D, logistics, maintenance, tactics, training, doctrine
 
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FADH1791

Junior Member
Registered Member
enroger said:
I think Putin may need a complete reassessment of capabilities of Ru armed forces, he can no longer trust his generals to say such and such...

I can see RuAF pit against PLAAF in a no hold bar all out air exercise J-20 vs Su-57, no more saving faces, lets see exactly how good RuAF is
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To be fair it was Putin who last week was waging this war half assed and held back Russian firepower expecting collapse of Ukrainian resistance. Which to me is asinine as since 2014 Ukraine has become more and more anti-Russian. After the fiascos of last week Putin has finally taken the gloves off his military and we are seeing progress. What will they do with eventual Ukrainian insurgency is anyone’s guess. The best bet is simply make Ukraine a landlock broke nation. Turn the south and East into a pro Russian state. Occupation of all of Ukraine will be Chechnya on steroids. The west will flood the insurgents with manpads and atgms which is lethal to any occupying force. The current makeup of the Russian military won’t be able to handle an occupation of all Ukraine. If west Ukraine steps out of line use the Israeli tactic of “mowing the grass,” with intense bombardment and limited offensives.
 
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enroger

Junior Member
Registered Member
Overbom said:
Its Putin who put them in that position. He chose the Defence Minister

And this is the guy who has been in charge since the 90s with a brief absence in the 2000s. So the blame is mostly on him. For example, where was the political will to go against interest groups lobbying and get Chinese weapons/platforms until the domestic industry could produce them?

In anycase, the whole military (except Navy?) needs a major reform in many areas.
Evaluation/Procurement, R&D, logistics, maintenance, tactics, training, doctrine
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True. Though to be fair if I was Putin I won't want to buy Chinese stuff as well since China is a major competitor in the international arms market, which is one of the pillar of income for Russian industry.

But yeah their problem seems to be systematic as you say, perhaps even more challenging than Xi's military reform...
 
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enroger

Junior Member
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FADH1791 said:
To be fair it was Putin who last week was waging this war half assed and held back Russian firepower expecting collapse of Ukrainian resistance. Which to me is asinine as since 2014 Ukraine has become more and more anti-Russian. After the fiascos of last week Putin has finally taken the gloves off his military and we are seeing progress. What will they do with eventual Ukrainian insurgency is anyone’s guess. The best bet is simply make Ukraine a landlock broke nation. Turn the south and East into a pro Russian state. Occupation of all of Ukraine will be Chechnya on steroids. The west will flood the insurgents with manpads and atgms which is lethal to any occupying force. The current makeup of the Russian military won’t be able to handle an occupation of all Ukraine. If west Ukraine steps out of line use the Israeli tactic of “mowing the grass,” with intense bombardment and limited offensives.
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These factors simply exacerbate the problems already there making it looks worse, but there are problems none the less. Makes you wonder how they'd fair if they're up against a more high tech opponent...
 
A

ArmchairAnalyst

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FADH1791 said:
If west Ukraine steps out of line use the Israeli tactic of “mowing the grass,” with intense bombardment and limited offensives.
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That tactic only works if the neighbouring countries neither care or won't intervene.
Very unlikely imo.
If Russia want to subjugate a non-wavering resistant Ukraine or more precisely all Ukrainians (big question mark) it will probably have to be done North Korean or Stalin/old Soviet style. This in effect will transform Russia too - into an extremely repressive authorian state. Much more than today. Are the ordinary Russians willing to accept this - with their memories of old Soviet times still intact? And can the current regime keep control if they don't?
To me an occupied or fully absorbed Ukraine in most ways seems like poison chalice for Russia.
It will certainly be very interesting in a morbid horrifying way to see what the outcome will be.
I hope for the best but fear the worst.
 
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FADH1791

Junior Member
Registered Member
ArmchairAnalyst said:
That tactic only works if the neighbouring countries neither care or won't intervene.
Very unlikely imo.
If Russia want to subjugate a non-wavering resistant Ukraine or more precisely all Ukrainians (big question mark) it will probably have to be done North Korean or Stalin/old Soviet style. This in effect will transform Russia too - into an extremely repressive authorian state. Much more than today. Are the ordinary Russians willing to accept this - with their memories of old Soviet times still intact? And can the current regime keep control if they don't?
To me an occupied or fully absorbed Ukraine in most ways seems like poison chalice for Russia.
It will certainly be very interesting in a morbid horrifying way to see what the outcome will be.
I hope for the best but fear the worst.
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I agree the way the Russian military is set up an occupation of all Ukraine will end in tears. Ukraine is a massive country with a large populace that hates Russia and surrounded by neighboring nations that will flood insurgents with ammo,manpads, atgms. They can support this insurgency for a long time. Even if Russia puts a puppet govt it would collapse as soon as Russian troops withdraw. Best bet is partition the nation between east and west.
 
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