And neither will the Ukrainians or the West.
Without a long term viable solution, Putin will just kick the can further down the road, solving absolutely nothing and gaining very little if anything in return long term.
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Discussing long term impacts of Ukraine crisis
- Thread starter sndef888
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Without a long term viable solution, Putin will just kick the can further down the road, solving absolutely nothing and gaining very little if anything in return long term.
Russian Ukrainians in Donbas and Crimea were fine with Russia.
I believe West Ukraine will be forced to sign on the dotted line for their own good. Once they accept that East Ukraine is gone they can go ahead and join EU/NATO. Otherwise they don't qualify due to territorial conflict.
Nobody will invest in West OR East Ukraine with a conflict on. I already showed how Ukrainian mismanagement of their economy caused it to stagnate for 30+ years. They can fight like Afghans, but do they want to live like Afghans for decades? Ukraine at peace was poorer than war torn Bosnia, what do you think their GDP per capita is now?
The only way they get even 0.1% hope of development is accepting Russia won so they can get money to rebuild and join EU.
That we agree on which is why I wrote unilaterally i.e. Russia just doing what it wants.
It would work much better with a formal treaty seen as legitimate by all invested parties.
Only the current Ukrainian leadership can provide such but would Putin accept that? Would they?
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CNBC
"When adjusted for climate change and adaption costs, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) has estimated that the Asia-Pacific region will require on average $1.7 trillion per year of additional infrastructure investment — or $26 trillion by 2030 — if current economic growth rates are to be sustained."
cnbc.com/advertorial/2018/03/06/where-is-the-funding-for-a-26-trillion-initiative-coming-from.html
Putin would probably accept a partition. Western Ukraine is poorer than Eastern Ukraine even before the war.
Ukrainian government will be forced to sign the unequal treaty for their survival unless they want to live in misery and poverty trying to fight off Russia for decades. They also border EU. In time sympathy turns to contempt as refugees "take jobs" and turn the right wing against them.
In addition, Ukrainian politicians believe that all their problems will be solved once they join the EU. Signing is the fastest way to do that.
Yes, everyone needs money, but that still doesn't answer the question of how China can rapidly diversify it's fx reserves. How would you distribute 1-2T USD to APAC nations while ensuring the money you're investing in their infrastructure is safe and what legal means China has if some of those countries gets "coup'ed" by certain world powers? Takes time, effort and manpower to create all the oversight and due diligence to protect your capital that you invest in others.
supercat
Major
Technologies for air-breathing hypersonic missile?
Agreed. I would add that Russian policy makes fully understate and expect that they need to endure some severe short-term pains before reliefs from China can come into effect.
Buying as much precious and industrial metals as possible and ASAP for starters?
China + Russia + Central Asia should use their strength to make an economic block for commodities produced in these countries.
They should heavily encourage usage of local currencies like yuan or ruble (doubt that they trust to use it) or others
This new block would control a significant world share of many minerals resources and agricultural goods.
I just checked Ukraine GDP per capita. Damn the country really poor. They have quite good heavy machine and aviation industry but only 50% GDP per capita of Belarus, a country that I almost know nothing. It's almost equal to Libya.