Discussing Biden's Potential China Policy

Agnus said:

I do think Biden did want to ease tensions with China and come to sort of a ''vague truce'' so he could focus on his domestic agenda. If China was willing to buy some US debt or something. But, if this was some kind of good deal for both parties. China knows that any promises made by Biden even if it is under good faith will be reversed by a future Trump like figure. So, there was no point into giving Biden's demands. That level of trust from the Obama years is gone forever. Trumpian way of handing of China will be the norm. Biden's presidency will be merely the stopgap towards this transition.

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If I was Xi, everything I do would be to buy time.

• I need time to get all my high tech supply chain sorted out, starting with 28nm semiconductors.
• I need time for my current crop of officers untainted by corruption of the 90's and 00's to rise to Battalion and Brigade command billets.
• I need time to work out any integration issues with my joint warfighting requirements.
• I need time to work out my CVN and SSBNs.
• And yes, I need time to upscale and upgrade my nuclear triad.

So Biden or Trump, none of that matters. If I was Xi, I would play my game while they play their, accepting and embracing the reality that it all might come to blows over Taiwan, but every day without a standoff is a day I get stronger.

And even if Biden/Tsai somehow triggers a standoff, my reaction and strategy would be the same. I would prepare but engage and initiate on my own terms and timeline.

So even if ROC declares itself ROT on OCT 1st, I simply declare that I've abandoned peaceful unification and started my own timeline for "resolution" and allow the laws of economic to play havoc on the island.

If the KIA of 13 USMC MEU brings the flag to half staff for 5 days, then a full blown war between peers can lower the flag until the year 2101, and ain't nobody has the stomach for that shit. Both Xi and Biden knows it.

China of 2025-2027 would be at least another 15-20% stronger militarily, technologically and financially stronger than it was in 2018, when the trade war kicked off.

I'd rather have the bluntness of the Republicans VS the sneaky and manipulative tactics that Demos love to use to great effect. That way the fence sitters in China who may perhaps cling into the false notion that America is a reasonable country and it's intentions noble and all that jazz will be abused of that notion strong and firmly enough to ensure that China must work quadruply hard to ensure the country's economic vitality and buoyancy becomes stronger ensuring that China's sovereignty will never ever be compromised again.

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Chinese domestic perception of an altruistic, benevolent but ponderous US is long gone. No Dem or GOP candidate can revive it. Actually, at this point it doesn't really matter if it was blunt Republican or a manipulative Dem in the White House in 2025, when the cards gets weak, the player gets desperate. Hence the bluntness we see are a necessary manifestation of reality, which applies to Dem or Republicans, it has increasingly little to do with tactics.

steel21 said:

China of 2025-2027 would be at least another 15-20% stronger militarily, technologically and financially stronger than it was in 2018, when the trade war kicked off.



Chinese domestic perception of an altruistic, benevolent but ponderous US is long gone. No Dem or GOP candidate can revive it. Actually, at this point it doesn't really matter if it was blunt Republican or a manipulative Dem in the White House in 2025, when the cards gets weak, the player gets desperate. Hence the bluntness we see are a necessary manifestation of reality, which applies to Dem or Republicans, it has increasingly little to do with tactics.

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If you take a 2018-2025 timeframe, China will not be 15-20% stronger militarily, technologically and financially

1) I reckon the stock of advanced weapons will be at least double, because Chinese military spending was previously so low.

2) Something similar applies in the technology and financial realms

Just read this long article written by Michael Brenner (no relations to CIA Dir.John Brenner) for regarding the Afghanistan debacle that's unfolded and is still ongoing. I must say that the article makes it points really well. It's a worthwhile read and it at least touched upon or in my view dismantles this pervasive and popular belief that the withdrawal mess must solely be attributed to Biden which the author suggests that the blame (of which I agree 100% and have suggested that the said people be fired for the FUBAR these backstreet boys created) must go to the U.S. Army.

The Army is one of those entities that our politicos and MSM have been given immunity from accountability and criticism. The Pentagon’s omnipresent campaign to sacrilize the American military has paid off in a big way. So, instead of offering the apology they owe the American people they carp from the sidelines (if retired), leak to the press (if still in uniform) and mobilize their corps of Pentagon-briefed, Pentagon-loyal camp-followers to lay the blame on President Biden*. These are members of the defense expert fraternity who have an unblemished record of getting just about everything wrong since the inception of the Global War On Terror. The decision to leave Afghanistan was made by Trump and Pompeo. They had nearly a year to prepare. Biden gave them an extra three months. Military forces in country were kept at levels that the Army itself deemed adequate to ensure a smooth withdrawal of troops. He later added a few thousand. And it was the Pentagon, not Joe Biden, that took the bizarre snap decision to quit the Begram Airbase in the dead of night (without informing the Afghan general slated to inherit it) – thereby, denying us a secure airport conducive to an orderly processing and boarding of evacuees. However, it appears obvious that no contingency plans were ever made for a possible rapid evacuation of civilians – much less qualifying Afghans. Even in the fateful weeks when the handwriting was on the wall, they brass failed to act. The tragic fiasco at the airport was wholly the Pentagon’s fault. They could not as much as cordon off sections of the airport, establish control of entry gates, or maintain a modicum of order.

The ensuing chaos occurred despite the understanding with the Taliban, who observed it, not to interfere with the evacuations.

So, a fair judgment is that the people who should be denounced for sins of omission – and a few of commission – are Secretary of Defense General Lloyd Austin, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs General Mark Milley, CENTCOM head General Kenneth F. McKenzie, Jr, and the American commander of ISAF, General Austin “Scott” Miller. They are the 4 untouchables who barely get a mention while the pack harries Joe Biden. Simply put, they didn’t do their jobs.

No candor, no sense of responsibility. What do we get instead? The Republicans castigate Biden for Trump's decision. The Pentagon casts aspersions on the administration - but surreptitiously. The media put on their hysterical psycho-drama - and, in the process, display their profound ignorance cultivated over 15 years of forgetting about Afghanistan. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan seeks to divert attention and to sow panic (thereby, perhaps, unifying Americans in collective fear) by loudly sounding the alarm about a fanciful ISIS threat - "real" and "acute" - to the evacuation.

*(Biden, for all his faults, was the one man in the Obama administration who stood up to the cabal orchestrated by Robert Gates, with Hillary out front providing political cover, that coerced Barack Obama into the ill-fated ‘surge’ of 2009-2010).

Delete wrong thread

steel21 said:

If I was Xi, everything I do would be to buy time.

• I need time to get all my high tech supply chain sorted out, starting with 28nm semiconductors.
• I need time for my current crop of officers untainted by corruption of the 90's and 00's to rise to Battalion and Brigade command billets.
• I need time to work out any integration issues with my joint warfighting requirements.
• I need time to work out my CVN and SSBNs.
• And yes, I need time to upscale and upgrade my nuclear triad.

So Biden or Trump, none of that matters. If I was Xi, I would play my game while they play their, accepting and embracing the reality that it all might come to blows over Taiwan, but every day without a standoff is a day I get stronger.

And even if Biden/Tsai somehow triggers a standoff, my reaction and strategy would be the same. I would prepare but engage and initiate on my own terms and timeline.

So even if ROC declares itself ROT on OCT 1st, I simply declare that I've abandoned peaceful unification and started my own timeline for "resolution" and allow the laws of economic to play havoc on the island.

If the KIA of 13 USMC MEU brings the flag to half staff for 5 days, then a full blown war between peers can lower the flag until the year 2101, and ain't nobody has the stomach for that shit. Both Xi and Biden knows it.

China of 2025-2027 would be at least another 15-20% stronger militarily, technologically and financially stronger than it was in 2018, when the trade war kicked off.




Chinese domestic perception of an altruistic, benevolent but ponderous US is long gone. No Dem or GOP candidate can revive it. Actually, at this point it doesn't really matter if it was blunt Republican or a manipulative Dem in the White House in 2025, when the cards gets weak, the player gets desperate. Hence the bluntness we see are a necessary manifestation of reality, which applies to Dem or Republicans, it has increasingly little to do with tactics.

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No one is completely prepared for war. I don't think Chinese people will accept independent Taiwan It is redline and it is in the law of "anti secessionist " They spelled out when they are going to invade it is for everybody to see. So if US egged Taiwan for de jure independent China has no choice but to declare war come what may. CCP legitimacy depend on the following precept

1 Improving people life
2 providing efficient and orderly government
3 maintaining Chinese territorial integrity

Agnus said:

Like Trump and his team by the end of their term, had become pathologically anti-China. It didn't matter what the cost as long as it hurt China.

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Nope, you are wrong. His (trump) intentions was to make Biden adm extremely hard and awkward, not easy to reverse whet the previous administration had done. Thats exactly what 's happening now. Biden actually wants to reduce the tension with China (economy), because he knows it is idiotic, but he couldn't do that

caudaceus said:

Seriously I wonder how she would fare against people like Xi or Putin.

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That would be a joke in the decade ...... even with Merkel, no comparison

AndrewS said:

If you take a 2018-2025 timeframe, China will not be 15-20% stronger militarily, technologically and financially

1) I reckon the stock of advanced weapons will be at least double, because Chinese military spending was previously so low.

2) Something similar applies in the technology and financial realms

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I think 15-20% stronger could be interpreted relative to the US .. as the US military will be stronger as well

So in 2025, China could be 75-80% as strong as the US militarily in general

antiterror13 said:

I think 15-20% stronger could be interpreted relative to the US .. as the US military will be stronger as well

So in 2025, China could be 75-80% as strong as the US militarily in general

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I'd have to run another model on the stock of advanced weapons to confirm, but my gut tells me that in 2025, China would be at most 50% of the US military in general.

AndrewS said:

I'd have to run another model on the stock of advanced weapons to confirm, but my gut tells me that in 2025, China would be at most 50% of the US military in general.

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Currently China is ~60% of US military in general

This sites may help, which I don't agree in many things, especially Russia