Discussing Biden's Potential China Policy

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PUFF_DRAGON

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I almost have a heart attack at the thought of Pompeo as SecState for another four years.

Pompeo is lame and low energy as a certain ex-President would say. Dude is polling below 1 percent among GOP voters. The next generation of Republicans will not be establishment hawks like Pompeo me thinks. The only people polling well are Q-Anon types and white nationalists.

You will probably beg for Pompeo's return by 2028.

And it's also worth noting that the #1 goal of Sino-Soviet alliance was to counter the United States. Look around you, do you really want a repeat of the Cold War V2.0? By allying with a former shell of superpower (Russia) again for a Cold War 2.0?

If anything, China is a Second Superpower precisely because of US-China relationships...China achieved more in 40 years relationship with US than in all 40 years of Sino-Soviet relations.

The Sino-American split is not a choice China made. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama made that choice over a decade ago and the GOP concurred. If you cannot accept that the relationship ended over ten years ago by American hands then you need to re-evaluate a lot of things.

It is fight or die for the CPC. The Chinese nationalists and military will never accept kowtowing again to the west and Japan and surrender is the American pre-condition for returning to the "rules based international order" or whatever. Even if Honey Bear Guy wanted to surrender he'd probably get dragged out back by a coterie of junior officers and shot. End of story.

Also, if you can't accept that yesterday's ally can indeed become tomorrow's enemy then you should read more about the Great Game and modern history. This is just how great power competition is done. No hard feelings.
 
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DarkStar

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The President of Peru, a Japanese full-blooded Asian.
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Again, Peru, or even latin american society is far, far different from anglo american society; here's a test, do asian men fare better with latin american women or anglo women? Which society has an 'all of society war' against Asians?

Blacks had it even way worse and still eventually got Black President. Stop moaning and bitching, success is earned and fought for, never given. An Asian man can definitely become President, and the fact that Andrew Yang went from virtual nobody to beating established candidates with significant MSM support like Kamala Harris (who bombed out before primaries), Cory Booker, John Delaney, Beto O'Rouke, and Julian Castro is a testament to how far an Asian man can go. Andrew Yang was just too rigid and not cool (e.g. self-depreciative of Asian stereotypes which someone cool like Obama would never do to himself)
I notice you never addressed the racial discrimination against asian applicants in tertiary education and harvard in your diatribe, is this the state of a free and democratic egalitarian society? And your point is fallacious, under the black president of Obama, you had Ferguson, the BLM protests which indicate that the lot of blacks did not improve despite a black president who, like Kiron Skinner, functioned as little more than a slave to entrenched white anglo interests.

But back at topic,
Biden is turning out to be a lame duck president because like obama, he's unable to control the natsec faction from screwing over his economic plan; who the hell is going to fund that infrastructure bill if not for China?
The Fed may likely raise interest rates if job reports show an increase (all the more likely given the rollback against ban on evictions)
 

Phead128

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Are you seriously going to be asking this question? Or are you just being obtuse. I would not have taken your background and educational pedigree to be this uninformed as to the purpose of the Sino-American rapprochement initiated by Henry "War Criminal" Kissinger and then culminated with the meeting between Chairman Mao and Pres. Richard Nixon in 1972.

Yes, at the time, China was concerned about Soviet Union after the Sino-Soviet Split, but it never got to existential threat, since China had already have nukes and hydrogen bombs. China did built a lot of underground tunnels and bunkers in anticipation of nuclear war, but re-approachment with United States occurred after the failures of Cultural Revolution and Great Leap Forward. China wanted diplomatic leverage against Soviet Union, but it also wanted access to Western tech and capital.

The partnership was made at the behest of the geopolitical factors of that time which was the cold war and how important it was for the U.S. to sever the already frayed relationship between the two socialist allies of Soviet Russia and China.
If that was only reason, then China wouldn't have privatized and liberalized it's economy. Yes, China wanted diplomatic leverage against Soviet Union, but it also wanted access to Western tech and capital. I like how you didn't even mention the Great Leap Forward and Cultural Revolution and generally how ass-backwards and piss-poor China was back then before re-approachment.

In other words the strategic plan was all about geopolitics and grand strategy nothing more, nothing less.
Right, if it was purely geopolitics, then China wouldn't have given up state-control over economy and economically liberalized. It was more than Soviet boogeyman, China wanted to modernize after the failures of Cultural Revolution and Great Leap Forward. Foreign investment helps that, particularly from HK and Taiwan and overseas Chinese diaspora.
It has nothing to do with benign and benevolent intentions from the U.S. ever a fact that you ought to have already understood based on your reading and observations on the current geopolitical challenges.
Who says US intentions was benign and benevolent? Every nation operates with it's self-interests first and foremost, there is no free lunch in international relations.

What I said is if you are so eager to conduct another 'Long March' and 'Eat Grass for 10 years' campaign against US, then good luck with another Cold War v2.0 with your best-buddy Russia.... let me know how it goes.
This is what former Harvard professor Graham Allison wrote in his famous book Destined for War: How to avoid the Thucydides Trap which discusses, examined how 6 countries engaged in war when a rising power emerges to challenge the dominant power. Please take some time away from your very busy and demanding rigour of your current academic pursuit to read this book. It may or may not shed light to better understand the current shift in politics and policies of the U.S. towards China.

US already fought China in the Korean Wars (stalemate) and Vietnam War (lost) and indirectly with US-backed KMT ROC (basically lost).

So yea, I spoke with a US Marine and they know they can't beat China in Korean War again, too many bodies. So what other area of conflict will they go to war? South China Sea? Taiwan? Judging by how quickly US abandoned Afghanistan, I highly doubt it would go to war over SCS or Taiwan, which are nowhere remotely related to US national security interests. The only conflict I can see really is Korea and maybe Taiwan, but as China gets stronger, I think the Taiwan intervention is getting more remote and unlikely.

You are far too generous towards your adopted country in giving them almost all the gains and achievements that China made these successive years.
Who says US make China rich?
Who says China's achievements is solely due to US?

If you are going to argue in good faith, you atleast have to acknowledge that foreign direct investment (FDI) and access to consumer markets of the West is one of the biggest reasons why China is "world's factory" export giant and the 2nd largest economy today. I understand your desire for self-sufficiency, but it shouldn't lead to complete technological de-coupling and returning to Mao-era of self-sufficiency and isolation and Cold War v2.0.... that's bad for China.

China achieved it's success largely to the system it has and the overwhelming support of the common people in the country who yearned and wanted to see the country strong and vibrant. That's the absolute truth.
Spare me of your propaganda. If "hard work" and "support from common people" is sufficient, then Mao's Great Leap Forward or Cultural Revolution would have been sufficient and successful.
 
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sinophilia

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I think it'd be much higher than that actually. Tanner Greer had a good article how because the US spent 20 years losing wars in the Middle East, North Africa, and West Asia, the US military has not had time to replace its aging late cold war platforms.

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One other thing to consider is that the current US production capability for big ticket naval and aerial combatants is very small. It takes 3-5 years to set up a new shipyard or aircraft factory. To give you an idea of how anemic American naval production capabilities are right now, there are literally two remaining nuclear submarine slips in the US, one of which I drove past on my way to a party.

For comparison, the PLAN has over 10 such submarine slips.

The PLA's ability to scale production of major aero-naval combatants is just an order of magnitude higher than America's right now and that won't change until the 2030s as the article indicates. Combine that with the fact that the US nuclear sub fleet and stealth bomber fleet will be shrinking through the 2020s and 2025 is actually a good time to pull the trigger if Honey Bear guy triples the armed forces budget right now.

In aerospace too? Hmm, the US military has over 14,000 military aircraft across all service branches of all types (manned and unmanned, fixed wing and rotary). China has roughly 5,000 confirmed aircraft, maybe 6,000 at the most (?).

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And the way it looks right now, US aircraft production of all types is probably still significantly larger than Chinese aircraft production of all types. If this isn't true I would love to see some data or estimates to back it up. Because so far it looks like the US still leads by a large margin in the air in total inventory, in production rates, and therefore likely in any scaling of production over the short term too.
 

Phead128

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I notice you never addressed the racial discrimination against asian applicants in tertiary education and harvard in your diatribe, is this the state of a free and democratic egalitarian society?
....because as an Asian male that graduated from a top 10 US university (guess which one), I don't view this as an issue like you (Australian?) might think is. At my undergrad, there were sooooo many Asians, like 20% of the entire school, even though Asians are like 4% of US population. Asians dominate at the Ivy leagues and top US universities.

Also, you have to factor the relative recency of Asians in large numbers in the US. Yang was an 2nd gen ABC. For every 4 ABCs, you have like 6 who are new immigrants with english as second language. Asian-Americans are mostly 1st or 2nd generation immigrants (since passage of 1965 Immigration Act which let in tons of immigrants from China and Asia), compared to Blacks who have over +10 generations living in the US. Give it time, Asians can break through the bamboo ceiling.
 
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Bellum_Romanum

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Yes, at the time, China was concerned about Soviet Union after the Sino-Soviet Split, but it never got to existential threat, since China had already have nukes and hydrogen bombs. China did built a lot of underground tunnels and bunkers in anticipation of nuclear war, but re-approachment with United States occurred after the failures of Cultural Revolution and Great Leap Forward. China wanted diplomatic leverage against Soviet Union, but it also wanted access to Western tech and capital.


If that was only reason, then China wouldn't have privatized and liberalized it's economy. Yes, China wanted diplomatic leverage against Soviet Union, but it also wanted access to Western tech and capital. I like how you didn't even mention the Great Leap Forward and Cultural Revolution and generally how ass-backwards and piss-poor China was back then before re-approachment.


Right, if it was purely geopolitics, then China wouldn't have given up state-control over economy and economically liberalized. It was more than Soviet boogeyman, China wanted to modernize after the failures of Cultural Revolution and Great Leap Forward. Foreign investment helps that, particularly from HK and Taiwan and overseas Chinese diaspora.

Who says US intentions was benign and benevolent? Every nation operates with it's self-interests first and foremost, there is no free lunch in international relations.

What I said is if you are so eager to conduct another 'Long March' and 'Eat Grass for 10 years' campaign against US, then good luck with another Cold War v2.0 with your best-buddy Russia.... let me know how it goes.


US already fought China in the Korean Wars (stalemate) and Vietnam War (lost) and indirectly with US-backed KMT ROC (basically lost).

So yea, I spoke with a US Marine and they know they can't beat China in Korean War again, too many bodies. So what other area of conflict will they go to war? South China Sea? Taiwan? Judging by how quickly US abandoned Afghanistan, I highly doubt it would go to war over SCS or Taiwan, which are nowhere remotely related to US national security interests. The only conflict I can see really is Korea and maybe Taiwan, but as China gets stronger, I think the Taiwan intervention is getting more remote and unlikely.


Who says US make China rich?
Who says China's achievements is solely due to US?

If you are going to argue in good faith, you atleast have to acknowledge that foreign direct investment (FDI) and access to consumer markets of the West is one of the biggest reasons why China is "world's factory" export giant and the 2nd largest economy today. I understand your desire for self-sufficiency, but it shouldn't lead to complete technological de-coupling and returning to Mao-era of self-sufficiency and isolation and Cold War v2.0.... that's bad for China.



US subversions in Tibet/Xinjiang/Democracy started in 1949 through 2021, but have you wondered why China only started getting rich in the 1970's and not due to "hard work" between 1949-1970?

Spare me of your propaganda. If "hard work" and "support from common people" is sufficient, then Mao's Great Leap Forward or Cultural Revolution would have been sufficient and successful.
If you are going to argue in good faith, you atleast have to acknowledge that foreign direct investment (FDI) and access to consumer markets of the West is one of the biggest reasons why China is "world's factory" export giant and the 2nd largest economy today. I understand your desire for self-sufficiency, but it shouldn't lead to complete technological de-coupling and returning to Mao-era of self-sufficiency and isolation and Cold War v2.0.... that's bad for China.
It's odd that you're going to make this request and then would subsequently make this charged up and almost personal attack rather than on the arguments am making.
Spare me of your propaganda. If "hard work" and "support from common people" is sufficient, then Mao's Great Leap Forward or Cultural Revolution would have been sufficient and successful.
As for the following questions and charges:
If that was only reason, then China wouldn't have privatized and liberalized it's economy. Yes, China wanted diplomatic leverage against Soviet Union, but it also wanted access to Western tech and capital. I like how you didn't even mention the Great Leap Forward and Cultural Revolution and generally how ass-backwards and piss-poor China was back then before re-approachment.

Right, if it was purely geopolitics, then China wouldn't have given up state-control over economy and economically liberalized. It was more than Soviet boogeyman, China wanted to modernize after the failures of Cultural Revolution and Great Leap Forward. Foreign investment helps that, particularly from HK and Taiwan and overseas Chinese diaspora.
Have you even took the time to pause and reevaluate your thesis that perhaps it's the Political system and leadership of China that allowed all the liberalization, economic reforms to take place which means the system was and is flexible enough to reinvent itself to adopt to the changing needs of the country which is also what's being applied at this moment due to the geopolitical challenges against the west.

Again, you're so quick to keep bringing up the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution to denigrate and devalue some of the positive values and aspects that occurred during that time and it's preceding decades. Most of the attempts to undermine Mao’s reputation centre around the Great Leap Forward that began in 1958. The peasants had already started farming the land co-operatively in the 1950s. During the Great Leap Forward they joined large communes consisting of thousands or tens of thousands of people. Large-scale irrigation schemes were undertaken to improve agricultural productivity. Mao’s plan was to massively increase both agricultural and industrial production. It is argued that these policies led to a famine in the years 1959-61 (although some believe the famine began in 1958). A variety of reasons are cited for the famine. For example, excessive grain procurement by the state or food being wasted due to free distribution in communal kitchens. It has also been claimed that peasants neglected agriculture to work on the irrigation schemes or in the famous “backyard steel furnaces” (small-scale steel furnaces built in rural areas).

Mao admitted that problems had occurred in this period. However, he blamed the majority of these difficulties on bad weather and natural disasters. He admitted that there had been policy errors too, which he took responsibility for.

The idea that “Mao was responsible for genocide” has been used as a springboard to rubbish everything that the Chinese people achieved during Mao’s rule. However, even someone like the demographer Judith Banister, one of the most prominent advocates of the “massive death toll” hypothesis has to admit the successes of the Mao era. She writes how in 1973-5 life expectancy in China was higher than in Africa, the Middle East, South Asia and many countries in Latin America 1. In 1981 she co-wrote an article where she described the People’s Republic of China as a ‘super-achiever’ in terms of mortality reduction, with life expectancy increasing by approximately 1.5 years per calendar year since the start of communist rule in 1949. Life expectancy increased from 35 in 1949 to 65 in the 1970s when Mao’s rule came to an end.

And finally to this absurd nonsense:

If you are going to argue in good faith, you atleast have to acknowledge that foreign direct investment (FDI) and access to consumer markets of the West is one of the biggest reasons why China is "world's factory" export giant and the 2nd largest economy today. I understand your desire for self-sufficiency, but it shouldn't lead to complete technological de-coupling and returning to Mao-era of self-sufficiency and isolation and Cold War v2.0.... that's bad for China.

My reply to this is INDIA. Two countries with similar or almost identical population size and one country that's prided itself as a bastion of Democracy; a country that did not once suffered any major economic embargo or military and technology sanctions from the west throughout it's modern history and yet we can see the outcome of both countries with two different political systems. If that's not an overwhelming evidence to repudiate the other nonsense and rah rah America is super needed otherwise what's going to happen to x,y,z, actually, I have no idea just what the f..k your concerns are tbh.

You come from the school of thought that America must be partnered with come what may, where I and many others beg to respectfully differ from your policy prescriptions. That has been tried and has been left wanting. It's time for China to assert and demand equal footing on the economic and political control of her affairs in the world. Wether you think such policies are ripe for disastrous results is an outcome that we will see come to pass or perhaps you'll be proven wrong. Time will tell.
 

Bellum_Romanum

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Registered Member
....because as as Asian male that graduated from a top 10 US university (guess which one), I don't view this as an issue like you (Australian?) might think is. At my undergrad, there were sooooo many Asians, like 20% of the entire school, even though Asians are like 4% of US population. Asians dominate at the Ivy leagues and top US universities.

Also, you have to factor the relative recency of Asians in large numbers in the US. Yang was an 2nd gen ABC. For every 2 ABCs, you have like 8 who are new immigrants with english as second language. Asian-Americans are mostly 1st or 2nd generation immigrants (since passage of 1965 Immigration Act which let in tons of immigrants from China and Asia), compared to Blacks who have over +10 generations living in the US. Give it time, Asians can break through the bamboo ceiling.
Asian-Americans are mostly 1st or 2nd generation immigrants (since passage of 1965 Immigration Act which let in tons of immigrants from China and Asia), compared to Blacks who have over +10 generations living in the US. Give it time, Asians can break through the bamboo ceiling.
Lol Check how many American-Asians that are actually employed working for Asia related field, subjects at the U.S. State Department sir. Better yet, why don't you ask a certain Korean-American who worked at the National Security Council to see what his experience was. There was even an article written about that experience of being marginalized and being left out on a specific Asian country because he wasn't seen as American enough. Sure bamboo ceiling my butt.
 

9dashline

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Registered Member
Lol Check how many American-Asians that are actually employed working for Asia related field, subjects at the U.S. State Department sir. Better yet, why don't you ask a certain Korean-American who worked at the National Security Council to see what his experience was. There was even an article written about that experience of being marginalized and being left out on a specific Asian country because he wasn't seen as American enough. Sure bamboo ceiling my butt.
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FairAndUnbiased

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No Asian man will govern the continent of the americas unless it's at the head of an Asian military expeditionary force headed by the PLA.
not necessarily. civilian governments after a peaceful transition of power to a caretaker government is possible too in the same way USSR collapsed.

Chinese-Canadian politburo for the Democratic Republic of Canada

Chinese-American politburo for the Union of Socialist States of America

proxy-image
 

Phead128

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Staff member
Moderator - World Affairs
Have you even took the time to pause and reevaluate your thesis that perhaps it's the Political system and leadership of China that allowed all the liberalization, economic reforms to take place which means the system was and is flexible enough to reinvent itself to adopt to the changing needs of the country which is also what's being applied at this moment due to the geopolitical challenges against the west.
Fair point. I'm glad China has awaken and removed it's rosy tinted glasses of West. If that's your point, I wholeheartedly agree, I wish China stop worshipping the West, China should understand that US goodwill will not last forever, and invest heavily into indigenization and self-sufficient in high-tech semiconductors.

You make a good point, China is well positioned since it has technocrats in charge and has a meritocratic system. It is better adapted to new challenges since it's highly flexible and adaptable to change. All I'm trying to say is Republicans are truthfully honest about stabbing you in your face, while Democrats are sneakily stabbing you in the back with a smile on their face. But I would much rather deal with a Democrat who is atleast somewhat semi-civilized, than the blatantly nasty racist fascists like Trump and Pompeo. Literally they are a modern day Hitler who would revive Yellow Peril 2.0 if they could.
 
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