With Trump, you were forced to choose sides (e.g. ban or not ban Huawei 5G) which definitely alienates US allies, but if push came to shove, they will choose US over China.
Yes, but that also consumed a lot of US' diplomatic capital. The US achieved its purpose but at what cost? They did all this effort just for 1 company
At a net balance, the US came out of this way more negatively than China. All this diplomatic capital could have been spent far more better than at just 1 company.
The way I see it, US can try this another 3-5 times before the world gettting alienated with it. A good price for China to pay if it means that the US will gather the animosity of the the world
US already lost it's hegemonic position with it's disastrous blunders in Middle East, excessive indebtedness, and financial crisis. That's why they elected a crazy person like Trump, they wanted to try something new rather than another corrupt corporatist blood-sucker like Hillary Clinton
No. The US has suffered a lot, and thats mostly because of internal matter. If I could score US current position at the top it would be "A- -" hegemon. Just another "- -" and it would fall down to "B+++" which would place it at the league of the superowers along with China, which I would say is a "B-" superpower with an upwards trajectory
We shouldnt underestimate the US. They still are, ironically, the wealthiest country in the world and have deep deep connection with the elites of the world.
Also, US disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan probably highlights contradictions, but do US allies care? South Korea which sent troops there actually is welcoming 400 Afghan refugees and repeating US propaganda about 'human rights' and 'diversity'. Talk about being a cuck to the US. Esp. after what Trump did to fuck up the Korean situation and leave with no achievements.
Their allies care. This is just another wound on US' body. No it won't kill it, but it certainly damages it and makes it bleed. The US has already many such wounds. Yes, it is still a lion, but it is a wounded and bleeding lion.
The more wounds are accumulated, the more the animal will weaken. China should sit tight and occasionally knife it when opportunities arise.
If US would break alliances in exchange for 10-25% tariffs on $500 Billion, then that is really cheap and cost-effective for China.
I dont understand. The US didnt break any alliances with its tariffs. Instead it gave China an excuse to reduce its dependency to the US and increase its imports from other regions (e.g ASEAN) thus bringing them closer to its sphere of influence. Plus did you forget that Trump shred his "over-ready" trade deal in that region, leading them to accept RCEP? Another win for China.
But I don't think Asian and European alliances that was built on blood from World Wars will be easily broken over 'diplomacy-by-twitter' or mean words on Twitter.
You are right on that. But dont forget that during Trump, it wasn't only words and Twitter. It was also by real action, like increasing tariffs, forcing them to choose on 5G, increasing aggresion on Indo-Pacific which alarmed ASEAN, cozied up to Russia which irritated EU etc.
If another such president comes then its lights out for the US. First time they can say it was ignorance or bad luck. Second time they wont have such an excuse anymore.
Dragging US reputation through mud, we already see that with Afghanistan and even earlier in Vietnam war.... US allies don't care so long as US is rich and provides security protection. They won't choose China just because China is rich, because China doesn't offer security protection....
China for now is focused on its region. Economic dominance is already there, and it is increasing by the day. Security, is now still under progress under the modernisation program. As long as China can become the regional power then that means that it can control conflict in the region.
That means that as long as China is the top dog in the region, there wont be any more challenges and threats there.
Ofc this is for the future. I estimate that by 2025-2026 there will be some progress, and by 2030, China would be able to dislodge the US and start becoming a great power in the region (still not the greatest regional power, IMO Taiwan needs to be solved first)
China is already a Second Superpower and US hegemony is already gone.
As said just some lines above, I disagree. US is bordering on losing its hegemonic position but it still hasn't lost it yet. It is coming though, just wait for a couple more years.
Electing a Republican would just mean US allies will lose the freedom to be ambiguous and play both sides.
Nope. Even during Trump when he was threatening them, they still remained neutral. At most, the US puppets fell in line, and he succeeded on 5G.
As I said, the US still has the diplomatic capital to force countries taking its position on specific economic industries, but it is bot unlimited. After using all of its diplomatic capital it would have alienated the rest of the world (sans puppets)
They will be forced to choose a side, and that probably won't be China.
Disagree. China is now a bigger trading partner than the US for most of the world. Give it a couple more years and China would be in an even stronger position. The world will remain neutral, that is unless the US does something stupid and touches their bottom line. In such a case they will turn to the China
