Am I correct to interpret that you think CCP would initiate kinetic operations within weeks of ROT?
Do you really think CCP are fucking morons who would be rushed into battle? No, a conflict would be preceded by months if not years of economic strangulation.
Why would the CCP act according to the adversary's will and initiative?
Even Desert Storm was preceded by almost 6 months of build up. CCP can initiate a whole host of measure short of declaration of war to turn Taiwan into a martial law hell, where curfews and price control will suffocate every ounce of investment and growth out of the ROT economy. Forget semiconductors, you can't even buy fuel.
What is US going to do? Build up indefinitely? Forever? Keep that shit up for a year and you will see SOFA problems arise.
Holy shit man, forget war college or CGSC, you need to finish officer basic course.
Legitimacy rest on the ability to kick ass and take names. The populace has faith in the highest echelon to make strategic decision for ultimate triumph. WTF would rushing into war only to get your ass kicked and economic smashed do for China's political future?
I'm sure China can "accept" a redline if they see Taiwanese rioting in the streets and beating each other up in congress. Oops, they do that already (the beating part). Let that shit ferment for a few months and years and see that friction between foreign troops who are not subject to price control and food allocations soak up all the chicks, and see how that cookie will crumble.
Shit., the mainland folk would watch with glee as the mofos tare each other apart, without a PLA dead or injured or a round fired.
I would wait about 18-36 months for US to spend itself dry, and all the ROCA garrison stay on 24/7 alert rotation to burn themselves out before launching the first salvo of munitions.
They have been preparing for war for the last 40 years what are you talking? In Korea war they say 38 parallel is a redline and true to their word They enter the war as soon as 38 parallel was crossed. That was time when china economy was 1/100th of US economy. Yet Mao choose to enter war knowing the cost it brought on Chinese economy. Economy be damned if the security of the nation is in peril. China preparation for war does not take that long because Taiwan is at perimeter of China. They have exercised for cross country mobilization for years. It is the US that will face long supply line once those forward base is destroyed! which they will
The following is the full text of the Anti-Secession Law adopted at the Third Session of the Tenth National People's Congress in Beijing on March 14:
Anti-Secession Law(Adopted at the Third Session of the Tenth National People's Congress on March 14, 2005)
Article 1 This Law is formulated, in accordance with the Constitution, for the purpose of opposing and checking Taiwan's secession from China by secessionists in the name of "Taiwan independence", promoting peaceful national reunification, maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Straits, preserving China's sovereignty and territorial integrity, and safeguarding the fundamental interests of the Chinese nation.
Article 2 There is only one China in the world. Both the mainland and Taiwan belong to one China. China's sovereignty and territorial integrity brook no division. Safeguarding China's sovereignty and territorial integrity is the common obligation of all Chinese people, the Taiwan compatriots included.
Taiwan is part of China. The state shall never allow the "Taiwan independence" secessionist forces to make Taiwan secede from China under any name or by any means.
Article 3 The Taiwan question is one that is left over from China's civil war of the late 1940s.
Solving the Taiwan question and achieving national reunification is China's internal affair, which subjects to no interference by any outside forces.
Article 4 Accomplishing the great task of reunifying the motherland is the sacred duty of all Chinese people, the Taiwan compatriots included.
Article 5 Upholding the principle of one China is the basis of peaceful reunification of the country.
To reunify the country through peaceful means best serves the fundamental interests of the compatriots on both sides of the Taiwan Straits. The state shall do its utmost with maximum sincerity to achieve a peaceful reunification.
After the country is reunified peacefully, Taiwan may practice systems different from those on the mainland and enjoy a high degree of autonomy.
Article 6 The state shall take the following measures to maintain peace and stability in the Taiwan Straits and promote cross-Straits relations:
(1) to encourage and facilitate personnel exchanges across the Straits for greater mutual understanding and mutual trust;
(2) to encourage and facilitate economic exchanges and cooperation, realize direct links of trade, mail and air and shipping services, and bring about closer economic ties between the two sides of the Straits to their mutual benefit;
(3) to encourage and facilitate cross-Straits exchanges in education, science, technology, culture, health and sports, and work together to carry forward the proud Chinese cultural traditions;
(4) to encourage and facilitate cross-Straits cooperation in combating crimes; and
(5) to encourage and facilitate other activities that are conducive to peace and stability in the Taiwan Straits and stronger cross-Straits relations.
The state protects the rights and interests of the Taiwan compatriots in accordance with law.
