Discussing Biden's Potential China Policy

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Phead128

Phead128

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Overbom said:
Nah this wont happen. Maybe Biden wants to, but it is not politically safe at al. Actually it is a landmine for him.

Republicans would attack him for being "Beijing Biden", "Xi Biden" etc. No way. Any possible "friendship" with China is extremely tocix to the the US right now. Anyone who recommends such a thing will get cancelled immediately and lose the elections 100%.

That is unless China makes HUGE visible concessions, which is impossible as China needs face as well. If China made such huge concessions it would trigger instability at home and project weakness to the world stage.

And anyway, why should China help Biden or anyone? China has a winning hand. If Biden wants to approach China, then its on them to make visible concessions. Any country which projects weakness now will have tremendous (negative) impact to its international reputation as a strong superpower
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Republicans aren't in charge anymore, if anything, they lost the election, so they can't demand to continue Trump's hardline on China because they lost the Presidency, Senate, and the House.

"Beijing Biden" is what Trump called Biden.... and Trump still lost the election. The Republicans will always call Biden "weak" on everything, from Afghanistan, Terrorism, China, Immigration, ANTIFA, Black Lives Matter, etc.... It's called politics. People will call you mean words, but doesn't mean you should be afraid of it because objectively speaking, the data shows the Trade war was a disaster for US importers and US consumers who born most of the cost. Biden was very open about how disastrous the Trade War was during his Presidential election, and even quipped about removing all the tariffs. Was he afraid of getting labeled "Beijing Biden" then? Nope. Republicans can call Biden names all they want, but if it's a good economic move for American jobs, workers, and economy, it doesn't matter what Republicans say.

Topazchen said:
What then happens in the event Trump or a Trump like figure comes to power in 2024 and people like Lighthizer and Pompeo are back in office?
Should China sit back and hope it won't happen?
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Bro, we are only like 7 month into Biden's presidency, and you are already talking about 2024. How about deal with the reality as they are now (Biden is President, not Trump) and deal with things when the cards land in 2024?

China should still pour billions into semiconductor self-sufficiency, but we don't even know who the candidates are for 2024 election or if Trump will even run (or be alive then, might die from UV light/bleach poisoning to treat his COVID haha)
 
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steel21

steel21

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Phead128 said:
Republicans aren't in charge anymore, if anything, they lost the election, so they can't demand to continue Trump's hardline on China because they lost the Presidency, Senate, and the House.

"Beijing Biden" is what Trump called Biden.... and Trump still lost the election. The Republicans will always call Biden "weak" on everything, from Afghanistan, Terrorism, China, Immigration, ANTIFA, Black Lives Matter, etc.... It's called politics. People will call you mean words, but doesn't mean you should be afraid of it because objectively speaking, the trade war was a disaster for US importers and US consumers who born most of the cost.
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If US was on the ascendancy, then I would trend to agree.

However, things are going to get strange in the next 18 months, economically.

This means people are gonna look for scapegoats in this system, and Bidennfits that bill.

People here have the DDR RAM capacity of a gold fish. So it's all about "what have uiu done for me lately?".

I don't think the midterms is gonna go well for the DEMs.
 
Hendrik_2000

Hendrik_2000

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steel21 said:
I want to reinforce the point that war is hell and brutality incarnate.

You know from the rest of my posts that I have both the experience and training to dive on a whole host of topics, both on and off the battlefield.

It's not some academic debate. If that is your impression of how shit works, then dream on.

Ain't nobody's playing your sanitized game of policy and speech in the halls of power.
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Nobody want war and we all know the carnage of war. You can compromise on other thing. But when it come to core interest there will be no compromise. As I said before maintaining territorial integrity is China core interest and Taiwan is big part of it. So long they stay on status quo all will be fine. But once red line is crossed there is no turning back. I hope everybody is clear on that. China will honor their word and pay any price! It etched deep in the heart of Chinese since immemorial Quote from 3 kingdom

The empire, long divided, must unite; long united, must divide. Thus it has ever been.

How the Mandate of Heaven and Tributary "System" Work in Ancient China​

 
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Overbom

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Come on guys. Again with the Taiwan matter bordering on derailing the thread.

Every country has core interests and (normal) interests. For core interests, a country cannot accept compromise and if someone touches its bottom line, it is fully prepared to go to war if needed.
Meanwhile, for (normal) interests, a country can sometimes negotiate with, or drop entirely depending on the current circumstances, thus it is highly unlikely that the country will go to war for such matters.

For China, Taiwan is a core interest. Take that as you will.

So, time to stop here because I dont want to get banned for being offtopic.
 
Phead128

Phead128

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The fact that US almost went nuclear WW3 over some stupid Soviet missiles in Cuba.

China should be ready to go nuclear if US attempts to divide China permanently with a military intervention.

I think all China needs to do is detonate 3 hydrogen bombs in an arc 200 miles off the eastern coast of Taiwan in the Pacific ocean. US wouldn't even dare intervene after that.
 
LawLeadsToPeace

LawLeadsToPeace

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Phead128 said:
The fact that US almost went nuclear WW3 over some stupid Soviet missiles in Cuba.

China should be ready to go nuclear if US attempts to divide China permanently with a military intervention.
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That was on the surface and for the world to view America as a determined and strong nation. However, that is far from the truth. Prior to and during the Cuban Missile Crisis, the USSR basically wanted to one up the US since the US had many nuclear armed missiles in Turkey and Italy that could directly strike the USSR mainland and attempted to overthrow the Cuban Communist government (Bay of Pigs invasion). However, Kennedy hosted secret talks with Khrushchev and agreed to pull out mid-range nuclear ballistic missiles from Turkey and Italy. So, the USSR technically "won" during that crisis since supplying the Cubans was a huge hassle thanks to the vastness of the Pacific Ocean and the US withdrew its nuclear weapons. However, the US won the media war since everyone thought the Soviets were weak when that was not the case. The reality is that the US will never fight with anyone with fire power that equates to that of their own.
 
solarz

solarz

Brigadier
steel21 said:
Am I correct to interpret that you think CCP would initiate kinetic operations within weeks of ROT?

Do you really think CCP are fucking morons who would be rushed into battle? No, a conflict would be preceded by months if not years of economic strangulation.

Why would the CCP act according to the adversary's will and initiative?

Even Desert Storm was preceded by almost 6 months of build up. CCP can initiate a whole host of measure short of declaration of war to turn Taiwan into a martial law hell, where curfews and price control will suffocate every ounce of investment and growth out of the ROT economy. Forget semiconductors, you can't even buy fuel.

What is US going to do? Build up indefinitely? Forever? Keep that shit up for a year and you will see SOFA problems arise.

Holy shit man, forget war college or CGSC, you need to finish officer basic course.

Legitimacy rest on the ability to kick ass and take names. The populace has faith in the highest echelon to make strategic decision for ultimate triumph. WTF would rushing into war only to get your ass kicked and economic smashed do for China's political future?

I'm sure China can "accept" a redline if they see Taiwanese rioting in the streets and beating each other up in congress. Oops, they do that already (the beating part). Let that shit ferment for a few months and years and see that friction between foreign troops who are not subject to price control and food allocations soak up all the chicks, and see how that cookie will crumble.

Shit., the mainland folk would watch with glee as the mofos tare each other apart, without a PLA dead or injured or a round fired.

I would wait about 18-36 months for US to spend itself dry, and all the ROCA garrison stay on 24/7 alert rotation to burn themselves out before launching the first salvo of munitions.
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The problem with a blockade is that if the US insists on breaking the blockade, then China would have no choice but to either back down or confront the US directly. This would actually be a preferred outcome for the Taiwan separatists as they wouldn't be involved in the fighting.

Taiwan's greatest weakness right now is it's military capabilities. A direct attack actually has the best chance of causing a collapse of Taiwan chain of command and minimizing resistance.
 
A

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
solarz said:
The problem with a blockade is that if the US insists on breaking the blockade, then China would have no choice but to either back down or confront the US directly. This would actually be a preferred outcome for the Taiwan separatists as they wouldn't be involved in the fighting.

Taiwan's greatest weakness right now is it's military capabilities. A direct attack actually has the best chance of causing a collapse of Taiwan chain of command and minimizing resistance.
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Something that I think the USA needs to really understand is that China is willing to fight for Taiwan and go nuclear if necessary.

There's no way China can accept an independent Taiwan acting as a bastion which hosts offensive US military forces.
 
steel21

steel21

Junior Member
Registered Member
Hendrik_2000 said:
Nobody want war and we all know the carnage of war. You can compromise on other thing. But when it come to core interest there will be no compromise. As I said before maintaining territorial integrity is China core interest and Taiwan is big part of it. So long they stay on status quo all will be fine. But once red line is crossed there is no turning back. I hope everybody is clear on that. China will honor their word and pay any price! It etched deep in the heart of Chinese since immemorial Quote from 3 kingdom

The empire, long divided, must unite; long united, must divide. Thus it has ever been.

How the Mandate of Heaven and Tributary "System" Work in Ancient China​

Click to expand...
On that note, I think we have consensus.

All I'm saying is that you should choose and initiate action on your own terms instead of being goaded/instigated into action on someone else's terms.

1996 was too much of a close call. China was desperate back then, lacking both the military capability and economic heft to leverage. It is a hand one only plays when there are no other cards in the deck.

Anyhow, a few months to a year to soften them up would do nicely.
 
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daifo

daifo

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solarz said:
The problem with a blockade is that if the US insists on breaking the blockade, then China would have no choice but to either back down or confront the US directly. This would actually be a preferred outcome for the Taiwan separatists as they wouldn't be involved in the fighting.

Taiwan's greatest weakness right now is it's military capabilities. A direct attack actually has the best chance of causing a collapse of Taiwan chain of command and minimizing resistance.
Click to expand...

There is no way they would back down from a blockcade though, I think they would use the militia/commercial ships to do some ramming and see where it goes from there.
 
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