Discussing Biden's Potential China Policy

AndrewS said:

I'd have to run another model on the stock of advanced weapons to confirm, but my gut tells me that in 2025, China would be at most 50% of the US military in general.

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I think it'd be much higher than that actually. Tanner Greer had a good article how because the US spent 20 years losing wars in the Middle East, North Africa, and West Asia, the US military has not had time to replace its aging late cold war platforms.

Why these costs are so severe makes more sense when you see just how old many of our principle military platforms really are. For one example, here is Cancian’s tally of the Air Force fleets:

Some fleets are in relatively good shape: the transport fleet (21 years, on average) because of acquiring C-17s and C-130s, the special operations fleet (12 years) because of its high priority, and the UAVs/RPVs (6 years) because of large wartime purchases. Other fleets are old: fighter/attack (29 years old), bomber (42 years), tanker (49 years), helicopter (32 years), and trainers (32 years). All the older fleets (except for some specialty aircraft) have programs in place for modernization, but the programs have been delayed, are expensive, and may take years to implement fully. [8]

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But now this system of pushing platforms just one more decade past their due date has reached its limits. Many of the old legacy systems simply cannot be rolled through one more decade of use

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And that is the problem. Commander Salamander’s “Terrible ‘20s” and Captain Fanell’s “Decade of Concern” are the same decade. In the mid 2020s the United States will be struggling to pay the Pentagon’s “modernization crunch.” The Navy, Marine Corps, and Air Force will be midway through a transition to a new, counter-China force structure. The number of attack submarines and stealth bombers that the United States can put in the field will be at an absolute low.

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One other thing to consider is that the current US production capability for big ticket naval and aerial combatants is very small. It takes 3-5 years to set up a new shipyard or aircraft factory. To give you an idea of how anemic American naval production capabilities are right now, there are literally two remaining nuclear submarine slips in the US, one of which I drove past on my way to a party.

For comparison, the PLAN has over 10 such submarine slips.

The PLA's ability to scale production of major aero-naval combatants is just an order of magnitude higher than America's right now and that won't change until the 2030s as the article indicates. Combine that with the fact that the US nuclear sub fleet and stealth bomber fleet will be shrinking through the 2020s and 2025 is actually a good time to pull the trigger if Honey Bear guy triples the armed forces budget right now.

PUFF_DRAGON said:

I think it'd be much higher than that actually. Tanner Greer had a good article how because the US spent 20 years losing wars in the Middle East, North Africa, and West Asia, the US military has not had time to replace its aging late cold war platforms.

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And 10 years ago, the stock of advanced Chinese weapons was really low.

It's only in the last 10 years that we've seen the quantity and quality of Chinese weapons procurement ramp up.

PUFF_DRAGON said:

One other thing to consider is that the current US production capability for big ticket naval and aerial combatants is very small. It takes 3-5 years to set up a new shipyard or aircraft factory. To give you an idea of how anemic American naval production capabilities are right now, there are literally two remaining nuclear submarine slips in the US, one of which I drove past on my way to a party.

For comparison, the PLAN has over 10 such submarine slips.

The PLA's ability to scale production of major aero-naval combatants is just an order of magnitude higher than America's right now and that won't change until the 2030s as the article indicates. Combine that with the fact that the US nuclear sub fleet and stealth bomber fleet will be shrinking through the 2020s and 2025 is actually a good time to pull the trigger if Honey Bear guy triples the armed forces budget right now.

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The military budget is not going to triple in China.

China doesn't yet have an economy which is large enough to persuade the US that it will lose any arms race.
That has to wait till 2030 at least, when the Chinese economy might be approaching 2x the USA

But you are right that China already has the capacity to build a military much larger than the USA, but that is not to say it will definitely be used.

Bellum_Romanum said:

I'd rather have the bluntness of the Republicans VS the sneaky and manipulative tactics that Demos love to use to great effect. That way the fence sitters in China who may perhaps cling into the false notion that America is a reasonable country and it's intentions noble and all that jazz will be abused of that notion strong and firmly enough to ensure that China must work quadruply hard to ensure the country's economic vitality and buoyancy becomes stronger ensuring that China's sovereignty will never ever be compromised again.

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In that case, why did China normalize relations with US? What's the point of reapproachment by Mao and Nixon if your end goal is to have another Cold War 2.0 by preferring Crazy Fascist Republicans?

The notion that China can independently master the everything under the sun also reminds me of Mao and his failed policies. Globalization lifts all boats, including China and US. US acting irrationally under Trump doesn't mean US and China will actually decouple. The fact Biden is doing token sanctions and token lipservice is much better than what Pompeo would have done, which is scorched earth policy.

AndrewS said:

And 10 years ago, the stock of advanced Chinese weapons was really low.

It's only in the last 10 years that we've seen the quantity and quality of Chinese weapons procurement ramp up.

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The current number of modern platforms the PLA possesses is already at 40-50ish percent or more of the US total I think. At current rate of American force shrinkage and Chinese production, the PLA possessing 75% or even 100+ pct greater modern platforms relative to the US is very likely by 2025 IMO.

AndrewS said:

The military budget is not going to triple in China.

China doesn't yet have an economy which is large enough to persuade the US that it will lose any arms race.
That has to wait till 2030 at least, when the Chinese economy might be approaching 2x the USA

But you are right that China already has the capacity to build a military much larger than the USA, but that is not to say it will definitely be used.

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As Tanner Greer noted the absolute nadir of American military capabilities will be the mid to late 2020s as the new platforms like the B-21 and new SSNs will still be prototypes and all of their 70s and 80s planes and boats will be basically unusable or retired.

PUFF_DRAGON said:

I think it'd be much higher than that actually. Tanner Greer had a good article how because the US spent 20 years losing wars in the Middle East, North Africa, and West Asia, the US military has not had time to replace its aging late cold war platforms.

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One other thing to consider is that the current US production capability for big ticket naval and aerial combatants is very small. It takes 3-5 years to set up a new shipyard or aircraft factory. To give you an idea of how anemic American naval production capabilities are right now, there are literally two remaining nuclear submarine slips in the US, one of which I drove past on my way to a party.

For comparison, the PLAN has over 10 such submarine slips.

The PLA's ability to scale production of major aero-naval combatants is just an order of magnitude higher than America's right now and that won't change until the 2030s as the article indicates. Combine that with the fact that the US nuclear sub fleet and stealth bomber fleet will be shrinking through the 2020s and 2025 is actually a good time to pull the trigger if Honey Bear guy triples the armed forces budget right now.

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What the heck? Why the need to denigrate Pres. Xi by giving him yet another Winnie the pooh reference. I must admit, that line ( Honey Bear Guy) made me chuckle though.

Bellum_Romanum said:

What the heck? Why the need to denigrate Pres. Xi by giving him yet another Winnie the pooh reference. I must admit, that line ( Honey Bear Guy) made me chuckle though.

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I genuinely think it's funny. Obama looks like Tigger and Shinzo Abe looks like Eeyore. It was a perfect meme. No lie.

Phead128 said:

In that case, why did China normalize relations with US? What's the point of reapproachment by Mao and Nixon if your end goal is to have another Cold War 2.0 by preferring crazy Republicans?

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I don't think preferring the GOP is a smart idea.

However it is worth noting that the #1 goal of rapprochment between the USA and China was to counter the Soviet Union. Look around you, where is the Soviet Union?

PUFF_DRAGON said:

I don't think preferring the GOP is a smart idea.

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I almost have a heart attack at the thought of Pompeo as SecState for another four years.

PUFF_DRAGON said:

However it is worth noting that the #1 goal of rapprochment between the USA and China was to counter the Soviet Union. Look around you, where is the Soviet Union?

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And it's also worth noting that the #1 goal of Sino-Soviet alliance was to counter the United States. Look around you, do you really want a repeat of the Cold War V2.0? By allying with a former shell of superpower (Russia) again for a Cold War 2.0?

If anything, China is a Second Superpower precisely because of US-China relationships...China achieved more in 40 years relationship with US than in all 40 years of Sino-Soviet relations.

Phead128 said:

In that case, why did China normalize relations with US? What's the point of reapproachment by Mao and Nixon if your end goal is to have another Cold War 2.0.

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Are you seriously going to be asking this question? Or are you just being obtuse. I would not have taken your background and educational pedigree to be this uninformed as to the purpose of the Sino-American rapprochement initiated by Henry "War Criminal" Kissinger and then culminated with the meeting between Chairman Mao and Pres. Richard Nixon in 1972.

The partnership was made at the behest of the geopolitical factors of that time which was the cold war and how important it was for the U.S. to sever the already frayed relationship between the two socialist allies of Soviet Russia and China. In other words the strategic plan was all about geopolitics and grand strategy nothing more, nothing less. It has nothing to do with benign and benevolent intentions from the U.S. ever a fact that you ought to have already understood based on your reading and observations on the current geopolitical challenges.

Why do you think Chairman Deng made that famous axiom of "Hide your strength and bide your time" because of then China's relative power to the great powers of the world was very weak. But that period or thinking cannot be sustain and must not be sustained in today's world. Donald Trump or no Trump, this clash of Titans between U.S. And China was inevitable because as China further expands it's economic power along with it's diplomatic and military power friction inevitably arises since China being a rising power would want and should have more say in the global affairs and rewriting of the so called rules based order that prior powers wrote when China was shittily weak and impotent. This is what former Harvard professor Graham Allison wrote in his famous book Destined for War: How to avoid the Thucydides Trap which discusses, examined how 6 countries engaged in war when a rising power emerges to challenge the dominant power. Please take some time away from your very busy and demanding rigour of your current academic pursuit to read this book. It may or may not shed light to better understand the current shift in politics and policies of the U.S. towards China.

Phead128 said:

I almost have a heart attack at the thought of Pompeo as SecState for another four years.



And it's also worth noting that the #1 goal of Sino-Soviet alliance was to counter the United States. Look around you, do you really want a repeat of the Cold War V2.0? By allying with a former shell of superpower (Russia) again for a Cold War 2.0?

If anything, China is a Second Superpower precisely because of US-China relationships...China achieved more in 40 years relationship with US than in all 40 years of Sino-Soviet relations.

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You are far too generous towards your adopted country in giving them almost all the gains and achievements that China made these successive years. China succeeded despite of the U.S. many attempts of subversion i.e. Tianmen saga, Tibet b.s. Falun Gong bull...t

China achieved it's success largely to the system it has and the overwhelming support of the common people in the country who yearned and wanted to see the country strong and vibrant. That's the absolute truth.