So despite all the concerns being expressed last week, there has been no new Ukrainian offensive, the Cease Fire has "officially" held and remains in place while further measures to de-escalate are agreed in Minsk.
With so many disparate voices, so little hard information and a high level of anxiety and concern all round, what exactly is the real situation?
I think that two factors are the significant basis for where we are and where is all goes from here.
1) The Ukraine military and punitive battalions were comprehensively defeated during the last days of August and up until Sept 5th
2) What Putin really wants.
Not that it necessarily makes the way forward seem clearer or answers all the obvious contradictions in the security/settlement equation.
I would like to look at both factors in greater detail.
1) After nearly two months of continual offensive the Ukrainian army collapsed. This is not a total surprise as; although the Ukrainians continued to take ground during the offensive, they failed to actually win a single decisive battle and actually destroy any significant militia organisations. To the contrary, the militia won every major engagement and gained in confidence and heavy weapons, personnel and munitions to be able to turn the tables and launch a savage counter attack that broke the spirit of the Ukrainians once and for all. Ultimately just taking ground is not the only ingredient required for victory, The Light Brigade in its final charge were; after all, gaining ground rapidly right up until the last few moments!
I have absolutely no doubt that irrespective of the remaining positions of the Ukrainian army to the North of the Militia held areas, that the loses of men and weapons that they suffered on their Southern Front when it broke proved terminal to the entire military organisation. That it destroyed most of their best units in terms of men and weaponry.
I will actually give credit to Poroshenko for realising that his army was beaten and that to prolong the fighting would be to see the remainder annihilated and for no tangible benefit of any description for either the Ukraine or his overseas supporters.
I still hold to the contention that the primary objective for Ukraine's backers was to force Putin to overtly deploy the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation into Ukraine and provoke an aggression to which they would be prepared to give significant financial and material support, as well as to satisfy the domestic political requirements of the backers themselves.
In the event, and contrary to the increasingly desperate attempts to claim otherwise, no Russian forces crossed the border and the militia were able to engineer the defeat of Ukraine through their own organisation. As a consequence of which no assistance was forthcoming, which is why while Poroshenko was lauded but otherwise left empty handed at the NATO summit, his representatives signed the Cease Fire Agreement of Sept 5th. He knew full well that he had no other choice.
I know many have criticised the Cease Fire and the halting of the offensive, just before further major victories and the capture of Mariupol, but I cannot join the criticism. I will not wish war on anyone and I am glad it has stopped, especially for the poor civilians who are now getting much needed aid and the start of the repair of homes and utilities. All of which is all the more critical as winter looms ever closer.
I also know that many question the ceasefire as there are regular violations and continued shelling especially in Donetsk. I would say that this is as much to do with internal divisions on both sides and some of the militia groups that remain "independent" of the Novorossiya structure, rather than any co-ordinated plan from either side.
It is a fact that all the key players; local and regional, welcome the ceasefire.
It is also a fact that these factors are only a part of the story and that only in the context of factor 2 do they make any sense.
2) So what does Putin want?
Putin of course has global concerns and these exceed the local needs and wants of a couple of small former Ukrainian regions. This means that no matter how much he wants to openly step in and put things to rights, he knows he has to temper his inclination to the wider geopolitical realities and Russia's global interests.
His primary concern is of course the Crimea and that this is no longer a subject of discussion in any serious circles will mark his actions over the territory as an unequivocal success.
Putin has been the target of a vicious campaign by his enemies at home and abroad, to attempt to discredit him and his policies. This has been done by an attempt to create a catch 22 situation for him in the Donbass, where if he fails to act he cast as weakling and loser who blinked and backed down, while if he overtly intervenes militarily he would be marked as a reckless aggressor and subject to sanctions significantly in excess of those currently enforce and most likely be bogged down in an endless conflict/insurgency in the Ukraine, against a NATO funded opposition.
Both options were designed to lead to his downfall and his replacement with a figure more compliant with Western interests.
In the event Putin has avoided the Pitfalls of both options, he has facilitated the defeat of the Ukrainian army without intervention and forced the Ukraine to seek terms, yet to be decided. Rather than weakened, his position is now significantly stronger than it was a year ago. Those oligarchs in Russia that aligned with the West are now being described as a 5th column and moves against notable individuals have already begun.
The message that comes out to surrounding nations is loud is clear: If you pick a fight with one Russian, you pick a fight with all Russians and they will fight you in ways that you and your friends will have no answer too. It is a potent message and will not be lost on its intended audience.
The methods and pronouncements made by Western Governments about Russia and Ukraine during the conflict are likely to come back and haunt them in myriad ways. The rest of the world and its problems have not gone away and many of them will require the West co-operating with Russia to try and resolve them. With the mask of cordiality now ripped away, the cost of such co-operation has increased exponentially.
Nowhere is this more likely to be evident as in the Middle East and especially with regard to the interests of Iran and Syria and the fight against ISIS.
What though does Putin want from the Ukraine?
Many are currently questioning Putin for failing to recognise or exert very specific pressure in the establishment of Donetsk and Lugansk as Novorossiya. I disagree with their view and I see it far more as Putin not being prepared to view the rest of Ukraine as "hopeless" or "lost".
If Putin were to recognise the Donbass as Novorossiya, he would be writing off Russian influence on the rest of the Ukraine for the foreseeable future. I do not believe he is prepared to accept such a loss at this time.
Ultimately, Putin seems to believe that Poroshenko is at least a businessman and someone with whom it is possible to do business. I can understand his optimism and that Poroshenko views the running of Government like the running of any other business.
- war being lost? its a bad strategy so end it and cut the losses. By contrast vain glorious politicians would have continued the fight beyond reason, piling on further death, suffering and destruction, just for the sake of hubris.
- Presented with a deal? lets do the rounds and see if anything better is on the table elsewhere. This is what he did at the NATO summit and in Washington last week. Sadly for him, those he met were not businessmen and they gave him nothing to negotiate with. It is no coincidence that agreements were made in Minsk on both these occasions.
Putin message to Poroshenko is simple and consistent, "if you and I can do business, things for both of us will be OK".
The business is of course to remove the Maidan elements from the Ukrainian political process and to restore Russian influence throughout the whole Ukraine, with protection special rights for the East and its right to deal with the Eurasian Union, just as other parts do business with the EU. Oh and of course....NO NATO!
Without any serious counter proposal on the table, what option will Poroshenko have?
