I really think you should take some time to listen to this podcast (starting around minute 51):
COMAC C929 Widebody Airliner
- Thread starter Iron Man
- Start date
Definitely not gonna happen, it's generally not of Chinese character to debase ourselves by giving vast majority/all benefits to a relatively unwilling Russia just for the slim hope of being helped in such a convoluted, indirect, and unwarranted way in a vastly complex system that is geopolitics. Chinese, in general, prefer to take it into our own hands when it comes to helping ourselves, self-strengthing is the best self-help. Also, I think Chinese in generally pay a lot of attention to attitudes(vibes), if the "vast majority or even all of the benefits will go to Russia", I think the vibe check would automatically fail. You know, all the fuss about goodwill in business.
Problem is that Sanction forced Russia to build 1000 Civil aviation jets in 7 years. This is post 2030 project at best. that time when industrial supply chains are sufficiently develop to have surplus. Russia has experience from IL-96 so first they will improve that project.
Also the requirements will certainly different.
just look at AVIC AHL 332 Chopper. This size does not suite Russia at this point. They have Mi-38 and Mi-26T2V going forward.
Also the requirements will certainly different.
just look at AVIC AHL 332 Chopper. This size does not suite Russia at this point. They have Mi-38 and Mi-26T2V going forward.
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
Sure, it's extremely rare and unusual to cooperate with someone for their good and not yours but right now, Russia is taking massive heat off of China by using up Western efforts and resources buying us more time to grow and develop to surpass the US. If Russia falls, if they capitulate, we fight alone. Russia is the only meaningful ally China has against the US; Russia is the only country in the world other than China that the US couldn't just move out of the way like it was a chair in the middle of the room. I'm not saying that Russia is anywhere near where it would fall without Chinese aid, but they're in the front lines blocking shit from hitting us right now. They might not need altruisitic aid and it may not be in our character to give it under normal circumstances, but under these circumstances, I'm willing to give it.
shabi
There are so many ways for me to analyze this to the same conclusion, but I will just talk about this in a more business way.
Cooperation always is and should be a win-win for both side. Suppose before the Ukraine conflicts, both sides are going with a respectable and respectful 50-50 splits of profits, why would the occurence of the Ukraine conflicts make Russia need 80-20 or even worse 100-0 splits of profits? Russia already have 50, why need the extra 30/50? Isn't the 50 enough? Russia has difficulties, doesn't China have difficulties? Does China have to offer Russia a greater share or even 100-0 split to all business deal with Russia just to possibly help China itself in a convoluted way that isn't even warranted?
In the world of nations, unlike some western countries, China and Russia are both adults, Russia is adult enough to not expect altruistic(naive) concession from China, and China is adult enough to not sacrifice its own real, concrete, and substantial interests for (1) achieving some unwarranted geopolitical gain (2) supporting Russia's national interest. No hurt feelings! And no harms done because adults base their decisions on reasonable expectations. (Russia won't need China's help to survive this war.)
MOST IMPORTANTLY, if the original 50-50 splits of profit is not enough for Russia to realize the deal, then Russia probably doesn't need any help!!! If faced with the two options of (1) 50% of profits (2)no deal no profits, Russia still chooses no profits..... Then 0%, 50%, 80%, 100% makes not enough of a difference to Russia, then it's probably a good guess that this makes not enough of a difference to Russia's opponents and opponent's opponent and, therefore China.
A lot of the times, donors' well-intentioned help that they believe will make a difference to the recipients might be surprisingly (to the donors) unsurprisingly (to bystanders) insignificant/cheap to the recipients.
However, most likely, CR929 is just a rather pure business deal that doesn't have enough to do with geopolitics to warrant all the above analysis. This is evident in Russian attitude towards the project. So probably this has nothing to do with "whether China should help enemy's enemy or not".
What is a couple of benefits here and there if Russia manages to prolong its fight with the West?
We should take into account the greater picture. We act as investors, we invest in Russia because we know that the payoff from drawing West's attention away from China will generate >1000x the return.
In fact, if you think more about it, we are extremely lucky that Russia entered into this war. Do you remember before the war all the plans and discussions that US/EU were doing about how to collectively deal with China lol.
Given Western attitudes, I hope that this war continues, and even expand to more regional (European) countries next to Russia
The more Russia gets West's attention away from China the better. For all I care, Putin can expand his war to the whole Europe as long as this serves China's interest in getting breathing space to develop
If it only takes some benefits to flow to Russia for this to become a reality, then no problem, give them away.
All in all, China is not and will never be a charity. People mistake these benefits as charity, wrong! We invest and invest in the hopes for magnitudes of order greater returns in the future from our original tiny investment.
Back to the topic, imo Russia's involvement should be reduced accordingly to reflect the growing difficulties that the Russian economy will present to the efficient co-development of the aircraft. This means that Russian suppliers should stay, but in capital heavy supply chain sectors the suppliers from Russia should be reduced.
Russian resources are about to become very limited soon so we might need to start preparing for it. We cannot afford serious delays on this program if Russia suddenly decides to allocate its resources elsewhere. We have to be proactive and I am sure our Russian friends will understand. As a compensation we can involve them more in subsystems development where there is limited risk.
At the moment, I wouldn't trust that an entirely Russian built aircraft system would come in time due to the sanctions and economic damage. Subsystems yes, but system no
I quote my reply to manqiangrexue:
It's not even a substantial enough of a difference to Russia for Russia to agree to the deal, then it probably makes not a substantial enough of a difference to China. Then why would we make concessions rather than keep it purely business and defend our own interests?
manqiangrexue
Brigadier
Sorry for what a Russian did to you. I hope throwing small random insults in pinyin on the internet after losing arguments makes you feel a little better.
No problem. I've said it again and again; the one example of the C929 is not representative of the Sino-Russian relationship and that despite my belief that it is appropriate to render help/aid to Russia, I'm not saying they need it at all.
I agree with your assessment of Sino-Russian relationship.
But that's exactly my point, why help to such an extent ("cooperate with Russia even if the vast majority or even all of the benefits go to Russia")? We should not have to forgo our interests just to help others, we are still helping by normal, fair, equal, mutually respectful and respectable Sino-Russia cooperation.