Chinese semiconductor thread II

[tokenanalyst]

The most powerful point in the whole article, IMHO -- this is only the beginning because the Chinese internal market is so immensely huge that it can absorb 400% more local chips :

Even at the projected annual growth rate of 12.3% from 2023 to 2028, locally made chips would only account for about 26% of its overall market.

"It is essentially impossible for China to make significant strides to become self-sufficient for its IC (integrated circuit) needs -- both memory and non-memory -- within the next five years and probably not even within the next 10 years," Brian Matas, market research analyst with TechInsights said.

But the market is already being impacted by China's localization push. Doris Hsu, chairperson of GlobalWafers, the world's third-largest supplier of base material for computer chips, said the slowdown of electric vehicle demand and intensified Chinese competition has made the SiC market very challenging.

"The internal competition in China is too intense. There are too many [Chinese] companies swiftly expanding their capacity ... and as a result you can buy silicon carbide so easily everywhere," Hsu told Nikkei Asia.

That graph doesn't tell the whole picture and is very misleading. For start by price, market share is skewed in favor of more expensives chips, like Nvidia ones. A single GPU chip cost probably much more than a thousand ESP32s ICs, by volume, "mature" chips are the majority of chips consumed in the electronic industry.

My raw estimation:

China 2024 IC imports is 549 billions units at a value of 385 billion dollars.




China 2024 IC exports is around 298 billion units at a value of 160 billion dollars


While domestic 2024 IC production is 451 billions units.


That means that China is producing 45% of the chips is consuming.
By value, let assume 82 billion dollars is digested domestically or 242 billion dollars with exports, that means China is about 37% by value.

But let discount chips made by foreign companies in China like TSMC, Korean memory makers and so on. I don't know why, but let's do it anyways, I think pure domestic production is already 25-30% by value right now.


​

 

[Michael90]

That graph doesn't tell the whole picture and is very misleading. For start by price, market share is skewed in favor of more expensives chips, like Nvidia ones. A single GPU chip cost probably much more than a thousand ESP32s ICs, by volume, "mature" chips are the majority of chips consumed in the electronic industry.

My raw estimation:

China 2024 IC imports is 549 billions units at a value of 385 billion dollars.


View attachment 146525

China 2024 IC exports is around 298 billion units at a value of 160 billion dollars

View attachment 146528
While domestic 2024 IC production is 451 billions units.
View attachment 146526

That means that China is producing 45% of the chips is consuming.
By value, let assume 82 billion dollars is digested domestically or 242 billion dollars with exports, that means China is about 37% by value.

But let discount chips made by foreign companies in China like TSMC, Korean memory makers and so on. I don't know why, but let's do it anyways, I think pure domestic production is already 25-30% by value right now.


​

Interesting reality check.

 

[mst]

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Samsung Electronics has reportedly signed a licensing agreement with China’s Yangtze Memory Technologies Co. (YMTC) to use its patented hybrid bonding technology in next-generation NAND flash production. Analysts say the rare move by a South Korean company to license Chinese technology likely aims to preempt potential patent disputes.

 

[GulfLander]

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Samsung Electronics has reportedly signed a licensing agreement with China’s Yangtze Memory Technologies Co. (YMTC) to use its patented hybrid bonding technology in next-generation NAND flash production. Analysts say the rare move by a South Korean company to license Chinese technology likely aims to preempt potential patent disputes.

Does the deal include only manufacturing inside mainland CN or even outside?

 

[OptimusLion]

SmartSens and Jinghe Integrated Circuit signed a deepening strategic cooperation agreement to jointly promote the development of domestic CIS

Dr. Xu Chen, Chairman of SmartSens (Shanghai) Electronic Technology Co., Ltd., received Mr. Cai Guozhi, Chairman of Hefei Jinghe Integrated Circuit Co., Ltd. The two sides had in-depth exchanges on new cooperation goals and signed a long-term deepening strategic cooperation agreement on the spot. The signing of this agreement marks that SmartSens and Jinghe Integrated Circuit have entered a comprehensive and in-depth upgraded cooperation stage. The two parties will integrate their superior resources, driven by technological innovation and aiming at industrial upgrading, and jointly promote domestic CIS technology to a new height

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[nativechicken]

what is that board for?

The ap6275p is based on Broadcom's BCM43752 solution, which is relatively traditional. Generally, only original SoC-based set-top box designs from official manufacturers would consider using Broadcom chips, typically priced between RMB 30-50 per unit.
Adopting this solution often reflects inertia – Broadcom's WiFi/BT modules have abundant documentation and are favored by major Western clients. In reality, most domestic set-top boxes use Taiwanese Realtek's WiFi/BT solutions, which are RMB 5-15 cheaper than Broadcom's. For low-cost boxes and development boards, domestic WiFi/BT solutions are even more prevalent, costing below RMB 15-20 (all supporting 2.4/5GHz and Bluetooth 4.0-5.1).
The main issues with domestic WiFi/BT modules lie in their tight binding with official SoC Android kernels and insufficient documentation. Most drivers only support kernel 3.x/4.x, with some barely compatible with 5.x. Very few support 6.x (AIC8800 series being a common exception).
In contrast, Broadcom and Realtek drivers are fully compatible with mainline Linux (many open-source fixes address newer version adaptations, with long-term community maintenance), making them plug-and-play. Domestic SoCs require custom driver porting for new kernels. Some manufacturers like Amlogic have WiFi chips (e.g. W155S) that completely lack Linux drivers – only Android drivers exist, which rely on specific Amlogic SoC hardware features (tight driver-level dependencies), making them unusable on non-official Android/Linux kernels and incompatible with mainline Linux.
Ultimately, the biggest challenge for domestic chips isn't performance or pricing, but ecosystem development. This requires a decade-long community building cycle.

 

[nativechicken]

Depending on the volume even if less than $20. If China makes its own it means more jobs internally.

Well, TSMC pretty much severed the tie with China, so it makes no sense still doing business with other smaller lesser players in taiwan.

ESP32 is very small and low power for IOT.

BOx for TV required more throughput and power. different animals.

China is entering war time economy as Xi building nuclear bunker in beijing and called for be ready by 2027. So, it needs to do everything on its own. Waiting to be sanctioned first before doing anything sounds lame and lazy.

China internally needs "red guards" to dig deep and weep out those foreign parts

ESP32 is not suitable for wireless modules in set-top boxes and embedded Linux.
ESP32 is a single-chip IoT chip.
ESP32 also has many competitors in China, but it does not have as high international recognition as ESP32 (especially among community developers).

 

[antiterror13]

That graph doesn't tell the whole picture and is very misleading. For start by price, market share is skewed in favor of more expensives chips, like Nvidia ones. A single GPU chip cost probably much more than a thousand ESP32s ICs, by volume, "mature" chips are the majority of chips consumed in the electronic industry.

My raw estimation:

China 2024 IC imports is 549 billions units at a value of 385 billion dollars.


View attachment 146525

China 2024 IC exports is around 298 billion units at a value of 160 billion dollars

View attachment 146528
While domestic 2024 IC production is 451 billions units.
View attachment 146526

That means that China is producing 45% of the chips is consuming.
By value, let assume 82 billion dollars is digested domestically or 242 billion dollars with exports, that means China is about 37% by value.

But let discount chips made by foreign companies in China like TSMC, Korean memory makers and so on. I don't know why, but let's do it anyways, I think pure domestic production is already 25-30% by value right now.


​

Interesting way less than $1 per unit chip on average

 

[henrik]

Does the deal include only manufacturing inside mainland CN or even outside?

What if the yankees find out Samsung chips contains Chinese technology?

 

[sdkan]

What if the yankees find out Samsung chips contains Chinese technology?

Trump : 100 % tariff