Chinese Internal Politics

Sinnavuuty said:

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China’s unspoken question: who will succeed Xi Jinping?​

Yin Li, 62, and Chen Wenqing, 65, a former intelligence officer who now oversees China's legal system, seem to be good candidates.

I believe that Ding Xuexiang and Wang Huning are weak for different reasons, Ding because of a poor professional background and Wang because he has no career in regional administration.

In addition, there seems to be a clear division within the Party's affairs and it is becoming quite obvious: Li Qiang - Economy, Development and Society; Cai Qi - Party and National Security.

Although I think it is still premature to discuss Xi Jinping's succession. The main focus is on Xi Jinping's re-election in 2027 as party leader and in 2028 as head of the country - until 2032-2033, inclusive.

However, it is true that the election cycle has been launched not only for the leader, but also, firstly, for the future premier and, secondly, for the successor, who is expected to be appointed in 2027-2028 as vice-president of the PRC (according to the existing model). More precisely, in the next 2 years, the first round of the game of selecting a successor will take place - the "selection" of those who definitely will not enter, without getting into the Politburo.

The game of the successor may be complicated by a major administrative reform and the reform of the Secretariat of the Central Committee of the Communist Party; for example, the post of Chairman of the Central Committee will appear, like Mao's, the post of General Secretary will become vacant, there will be a Vice-Chairman of the Central Committee, etc.

For now, the obvious successor is the party boss in Shanghai, Chen Jining. But he could, for example, be retained as premier in place of the current Li Qiang.

Otherwise, almost the entire Politburo youth group is ready for endless party games for the next two years, and then for Xi Jinping’s five-year plan.

…And he just didn’t leave in 2033. During the Cultural Revolution, Mao had many favorites and confidants for this role, from the military man Lin Biao to the head of the personal guard Wang Dongxing, who became Mao’s deputy (he ruled the party for 30 years) and could always replace him. There was Mao’s wife, the actress Jiang Qing, etc. For example, children—children in a hereditary monarchy—are the norm. There are people who are not on Xi’s side—that’s a completely different story.

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Eventine said:

China needs a younger, bolder leader to captain the rough waters ahead. The time of stability is at an end, and in times of war, younger leaders have tended to thrive. The world’s greatest conquerors were merely in their twenties and thirties when they began their campaigns (Alexander, Genghis, etc). While life was shorter back then, even FDR, who led the US through World War 2, was only 51 when he was elected. Like wise, the Han dynasty’s greatest military achievements happened under Han Wudi, who started his campaigns around his early twenties. The Qing had a similar story with utilizing young leaders for war times.

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Bellum_Romanum said:

Who do you have in mind?

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