Chinese Internal Politics

Sleepyjam

Junior Member
Registered Member
Rome lasted as long as it did because the center of power switched multiple times throughout its history from Monarchy to Republic and to Empire and even as Empire from Rome, to Italia to Spain and finally into Eastern Europe and from a slave owning aristocracy to a more warrior based society.

The problem with succession is not so much the system but elite overproduction where one allows one group of elite remain securely in power too long uncontested.

When that happens internal politics like nepotism, petty egotism and narrow mindedness grow at the expense of the overall well-being of the state.

That’s why you need to switch up the system every few generations otherwise entropy takes over. Democratic rule is successfully because into integrates “soft” regime change into the system but even then its contradictions and inefficiencies build up over time too. Their leaders game the system too by becoming people who can win elections but don’t know or care to rule properly.

For China it’s traditionally bureaucrats, for the Muslims it’s the priests and the West it’s the merchants) who are too fixated on their own policies and best practices that they don’t see the forest for the trees or let factionalism tear up the regime.

Without Deng seizing power from the Maoist Gang of Four, likely the country would have gone the wrong way and remained much closer to North Korea than its current form today.

Successors that are groomed often are weak-willed, overly deferential to the ones raising them and blind to the failures and shortcoming of the system they’re brought up in. That’s why people say wealth last only 3 generations.

You typically want an outsider who can bring in new blood and vitality with them. It’s kind of like comparing a stallion vs gelding. The ones who are wild often the best regardless of the pedigree of the male bred at the farm.
This is wrong and the analogies are incorrect. The Chinese system today is based on meritocracy. The top leadership requires vast experience in successful governance before been considered. This prevents some clown who knows nothing from coming in and wrecking everything. It is also different from past dynasties because it’s selecting from competence rather than from being a mere offspring.
 
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In4ser

Junior Member
This is wrong and the analogies are incorrect. The Chinese system today is based on meritocracy. The top leadership requires vast experience in successful governance before been considered. This prevents some clown who knows nothing from coming in and wrecking everything.
Entropy cannot be denied, no matter what system you attempt to implement. All things are subject to contradictions, error, and inefficiency that grow over time. It is why cancer forms, crime exists, relationships fall apart, why the universe will become cold and empty, and why time only moves forward. It is the second law of thermodynamics, after all. As such, whatever methodology you implement will be subject to Goodhart's Law, which says "when a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure," as even AI scientists find out.

The Song Dynasty had probably the best meritocracy and most efficient administration of all the Chinese Dynasties, but it didn't stop it from collapsing because it failed to take into account its defense. There will always be an oversight or some unforeseen consequence that occurs, like more recently the One Child Policy or letting the Real Estate Bubble grow too big, and eventually it will be one disaster too big to contain. No government or system is perfect, all things must rise and fall. Yet let's not be too pessimistic, but revel in the moment that we were born in an era to see the rise of China and likely depart before its eventual decline and fall. It is something many of our ancestors born in the century of humiliation were never privileged to see.
 
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MortyandRick

Senior Member
Registered Member
What is going on with all these purges within the central government? What can we read into this - is this a sign of Xi's faction weakening, or is Xi doing this himself? And why is this happening predominantly in the military?

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Why call them purges? Your word choice is questionable at best. The only purge happening is DOGE in the US.

This is not weakening a faction.
This is the epitome of meritocracy without the taint of corruption or backdoor dealings. This is a good thing. One would want the best managers to get to the to solely based on merit and not backdoor dealings, wouldn't you say?
 

oseaidjubzac

New Member
Registered Member
What is going on with all these purges within the central government? What can we read into this - is this a sign of Xi's faction weakening, or is Xi doing this himself? And why is this happening predominantly in the military?

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You have made a common mistake by assuming that all personnel changes are a "purge." In reality, this is not the case at all. China now has a well-developed system for appointing technocrats, as well as mechanisms for promotion and arrest. To some extent, everyone can be replaced.
 

Biscuits

Colonel
Registered Member
Why call them purges? Your word choice is questionable at best. The only purge happening is DOGE in the US.

This is not weakening a faction.
This is the epitome of meritocracy without the taint of corruption or backdoor dealings. This is a good thing. One would want the best managers to get to the to solely based on merit and not backdoor dealings, wouldn't you say?
There's maybe a bit more than meets the eye. US purge is not happening without cause as well.

I think with the return of the PLA moving towards the global no1 military spot and a prospective end to Hu Jintao's slogan of becoming the global leader peacefully, there are many different military plans drawn up, some more focused on hybrid/proxy war and some directly kinetic. In this environment, officer corps are being changed, especially at the highest level, to suit the doctrine that the civilian government requires.

But for national security reasons, obviously generals/strategist don't go around wearing signs explaining their warplans. So we won't know what the personnel changes mean until some actual conflicts happen.
 

BlackWindMnt

Captain
Registered Member
Why call them purges? Your word choice is questionable at best. The only purge happening is DOGE in the US.

This is not weakening a faction.
This is the epitome of meritocracy without the taint of corruption or backdoor dealings. This is a good thing. One would want the best managers to get to the to solely based on merit and not backdoor dealings, wouldn't you say?
Its so uncommon in the west seeing top officials being put in their place that western people started all sorts of conspiracy theory when the Russians started doing rotation of wartime generals etc or removing incompetent generals.
 

Xiongmao

Junior Member
Registered Member
Xi Jinping in the first place also just got elected by the national congress. They simply can elect someone else after Xi and chances are he/she would be at least "ok" even if not above the norm like Xi.

I also think Xi did the most difficult part for his successor already, by transitioning from second world standard to first world living standard. The guy after Xi just needs to not break too much.

Wang Huning retiring/stepping back changes much more, as he's not really in an elected position, and he's been determining most of how China acts for many decades now. There might/would be a change in grand strategy.
When I was young I put genius on a pedestal. Someone then told me that a good system beats genius every time. I laughed at that idea. But now that I am much older, I have changed my opinion. I now believe that a good "system" is much better than genius. All Xi has to do is to strengthen the system of governance overall. But what does an idiot like me know?
 

drowingfish

Senior Member
Registered Member
What is going on with all these purges within the central government? What can we read into this - is this a sign of Xi's faction weakening, or is Xi doing this himself? And why is this happening predominantly in the military?

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its crazy that not a single thing you said here was right:

there isn't much of a "purge" in the central government, a lot more people get rounded up in the regional government actually.
Xi's faction is a misnomer now, there are factions competing for Xi's favour, but it is no longer "Xi's faction" vs some other factions.
This is not happening predominantly in the military, it happens everywhere. at some point it was the banking sector, or some provincial government, even sports and entertainment at one point.

These "purges" are one feature of the Chinese ruling class that is superior to that of other countries. if you don't meet the standard, in conduct or in performance, then you are out.
 
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