Chinese Economics Thread

Wrought

Junior Member
Registered Member
This is not a proxy for economic growth or household wealth.

China does a lot of things right, but I'd find this thread a lot more informative if more people focused on areas of weakness in the Chinese economy and what can be done to fix them.

Conversely, this behavior is basically completely inversed in the American Economics Thread...

A simple rule of thumb for these things is that more expertise => more negative (note that this formulation is not reversible). For example, when talking about the military (USA/PLA) you see online fans making empty boasts while guys in uniform talk about endless problems. Not accounting for bias, of course, which is also a big factor.

When you personally are involved, you focus on what's going wrong. And there's always something going wrong.
 
Last edited:

GiantPanda

Junior Member
Registered Member
7% growth in electricity consumption means economic growth pure and simple.

Considering that this growth is coming during a major RE de-leveraging that should -- and in most countries, would -- create a recession then any package that could add debt and create imbalance is unnecessary at best and a dangerous retread of fiscally open policies at worse.

The West wants China to put money into short-term consumption spending as well as welfare to drive investment away from high tech and high value production chains. Arguing again and again about "overcapacity" in sectors that China needs.

Stimulus packages are suggested really as a "fix" connected directly to the falsehood about China's consumption being low. Low?! When they buy twice as many cars as the US and more than 60% of the world's EVs along with 45% of the world's ACs along with the biggest smartphones, TV and electronics markets (all multiples that of the 2nd largest markets.) China overconsumes already when we are looking at per capita income.

China does not need to divert resources to a stimulous package, it needs to continue to build out its high value production chain which to be honest is the best source of future income and welfare to the Chinese worker.

When the next bans, tariffs and embargoes come from the West and we know they will come then it is better to have the capacity in things like cars, aircraft (95% foreign), chips ($350B in imports) and all the other cutting edge technology in country and employing people.
 

abenomics12345

Junior Member
Registered Member
A simple rule of thumb for these things is that more expertise => more negative (note that this formulation is not reversible). For example, when talking about the military (USA/PLA) you see online fans making empty boasts while guys in uniform talk about endless problems. Not accounting for bias, of course, which is also a big factor.

When you personally are involved, you focus on what's going wrong. And there's always something going wrong.
So that means the U.S. economy is in a much better shape than those on this forum would like to believe?

Right?

Right?
 

Enestori

New Member
Registered Member
On the inflation debate, the UK had deflation for
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
. During that period the UK became the world's most advanced economy and created the Industrial Revolution. It also conquered most of the British Empire.

The USA also had deflation during the
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
, starting from the end of the Civil War. During that time the USA industrialized and became the world's biggest economy.

So historically, evidence shows that countries can become the world's largest empire or the world's largest economy under decades or even centuries of deflation.
 
Last edited:

abenomics12345

Junior Member
Registered Member
During that period the UK became the world's most advanced economy and created the Industrial Revolution. It also conquered most of the British Empire.

The USA also had deflation during the
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
, starting from the end of the Civil War. During that time the USA industrialized and became the world's biggest economy.

…and it was shitty for the average worker/citizen in those two periods of times.

Which of course with you living overseas it doesn’t matter. Check your biases.
 

doggydogdo

Junior Member
Registered Member
…and it was shitty for the average worker/citizen in those two periods of times.

Which of course with you living overseas it doesn’t matter. Check your biases.
Was it shitty because of deflation or that the average worker didn't even own where they lived and needed to live in slum like conditions?


So that means the U.S. economy is in a much better shape than those on this forum would like to believe?

Right?

Right?
It's an industrialized, urbanized country with a lower life expectancy than China with urbanization less than 70%. But it's in much better shape than this forum would like to believe?

Right?

Right?
 

Eventine

Junior Member
Registered Member
…and it was shitty for the average worker/citizen in those two periods of times.

Which of course with you living overseas it doesn’t matter. Check your biases.
It was even worse for the rest of the world that didn’t industrialize…

Real estate as a % of GDP was and still is too high. It’s around 25% last time I checked. Compared to 15 to 18% in the US historically. While a stimulus on consumer spending is probably needed I don’t think you can do anything to stop the housing bubble from deflating because there’s so much stacked against it, from years of over building & speculation to falling demographics.

China will be experiencing property deflation for a while; it can’t be helped because earlier leaders like Hu did nothing to address it.
 

Enestori

New Member
Registered Member
…and it was shitty for the average worker/citizen in those two periods of times.

Which of course with you living overseas it doesn’t matter. Check your biases.
Life expectancy rose by 22% in the USA between 1870 and 1900.

Obviously this was due to medical improvements not deflation. But the same societal productivity advancements caused deflation.
 

Wrought

Junior Member
Registered Member
So that means the U.S. economy is in a much better shape than those on this forum would like to believe?

Right?

Right?

This isn't the US economics thread (and I would appreciate if you didn't quote me there). I stay away from that thread for good reason. There are much better English-language forums to talk about US economics than this one.

Also no, that's not what it means. The forumulation is not reversible, as I already noted.
 
Last edited:
Top