Chinese Economics Thread

[Michaelsinodef]

To be clear, it feels amazing when I travel to China and my Meituan delivery costs 10-20% less than it was last year for the same thing, but I don't make money in China and don't have to take the hit on the income. But me 'feeling better' comes directly as a consequence of the entire stack of workers enabling that by working harder and getting paid less.

Except, everyone in China also has 10-20% less meituan delivery costs.

Essentially, everyone works a bit harder, and in return, things feel a bit better.

Anyways, sentiment/mood being down (especially in tier 1) isn't all that surprising (their asset values are quite down, and more resources are getting relocated away from tier 1s).

And they (specially upper class) essentially control a lot of private media (or can fund 'independent media's), to negatively affect mood further (essentially putting pressure on gov).

And like in a recent podcast I heard, a Shanghai person's parent in complained about neighbouring areas pension going up by 5% and theirs not increasing, and then that person told their parents to maybe look at the absolute amount they are getting (substantially higher).

 

[proelite]

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[Michaelsinodef]

So guess why everyone who has money is looking to buy US assets if they plan to live in China...including the Changzhou SASAC:

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Yea, they brought...

首先就是这件事被有些人过度解读了，常州国资委确实买了美股基金，确实是基金的第一大持有人。

但人家只买了337万份，买入成本500多万，就算是按照今天的净值来算也就1000多万，这对于监管规模4000多亿的常州国资委来说完全是毛毛雨。

Shares for a total of 10m (in 2020), while their total size is that of 400 billion...

And sure, further down, he goes on how they don't properly hold up a-shares.

But come on.

 

[abenomics12345]

Shares for a total of 10m (in 2020), while their total size is that of 400 billion...

And sure, further down, he goes on how they don't properly hold up a-shares.

Btw, I have nothing against this - they are making money for the government. But this goes to show you the 'confidence' in the domestic markets. If the country wants to play in the US-led capital markets, then you might as well give up on USD replacement.

Essentially, everyone works a bit harder, and in return, things feel a bit better.

"works a little harder"

2015年以来，全国企业就业人员周平均工作时间（下称“周平均工时”）逐步上涨，2023年的49小时周平均工时为近二十年新高。

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[Michaelsinodef]

Yea, they brought...

首先就是这件事被有些人过度解读了，常州国资委确实买了美股基金，确实是基金的第一大持有人。

但人家只买了337万份，买入成本500多万，就算是按照今天的净值来算也就1000多万，这对于监管规模4000多亿的常州国资委来说完全是毛毛雨。

Shares for a total of 10m (in 2020), while their total size is that of 400 billion...

And sure, further down, he goes on how they don't properly hold up a-shares.

But come on.

Also, I do think it's smart for China to just keep the a-shares low for now (especially this year).

With the coming bust of US in the next half year, it would not be good to have it be too high or hot when that happens.

 

[tokenanalyst]

So guess why everyone who has money is looking to buy US assets if they plan to live in China...including the Changzhou SASAC:

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For start that has nothing to do with my comment.

Chinese companies even state companies are global companies so they invest globally, including in the US, in my opinion that could be a good or a really bad idea depending were the wind will blow with the FED, if the bubble pops the losses are going to be big. If the FED cut rates that will reinflated the housing bubble and the stock bubble, big wins for investors bad news for the average American that will have to pay 1 million bucks for a house....in Kentucky.

 

[Michaelsinodef]

Btw, I have nothing against this - they are making money for the government. But this goes to show you the 'confidence' in the domestic markets. If the country wants to play in the US-led capital markets, then you might as well give up on USD replacement.



"works a little harder"

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View attachment 135452

1.5% over last year is indeed working a little harder than last year.

But it's on an already high base, so as a whole, average working hours a week and year is (too) high.

And I do also agree that it's too high (stuff like this won't grow forever though), and I do think it will likely come to decrease in the coming decades (likely not as fast as it rose).

 

[abenomics12345]

1.5% over last year is indeed working a little harder than last year.

But it's on an already high base, so as a whole, average working hours a week and year is (too) high.

And I do also agree that it's too high (stuff like this won't grow forever though), and I do think it will likely come to decrease in the coming decades (likely not as fast as it rose).

If you adjusted disposable income growth by the increase in hours worked, wage growth on an hourly basis is even less.

Not a sustainable way to run an economy by asking people to

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.

If you do not change the current method of stimulating the economy ('have people work harder and build more things'), there is nothing that will change this.

 

[Michaelsinodef]

If you adjusted disposable income growth by the increase in hours worked, wage growth on an hourly basis is even less.

Not a sustainable way to run an economy by asking people to

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.

If you do not change the current method of stimulating the economy ('have people work harder and build more things'), there is nothing that will change this.

That I don't disagree.

But I would take the exchange of a 2% working hours growth for a 4% wage increase WHILE also getting that 5-10% decrease in various/most expenses/goods/services.

And sure, I'm only at 8 hours a day (so 2% up would be 10 more minutes a day).

But I'm sure most people in the world would likewise do it.

 

[abenomics12345]

But I would take the exchange of a 2% working hours growth for a 4% wage increase

I'm only at 8 hours a day

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You answered yourself there. Working 8 a day in AC cooled office =\= working 12/day running in traffic trying to avoid getting hit by drivers + delivering food on time.