proelite
Junior Member
Ye, looking at the old years it looks like deflation sucks I remember 2015, and the economy sucked that year
So this graph is telling me we're at the end of a 25-year-old cycle.
Chinese Economics Thread
- Thread starter Norfolk
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So this graph is telling me we're at the end of a 25-year-old cycle.
Coincidentally, real estate market was formally liberalized in 1998：
It is instrumental to read what happened to the financial system in 1998 and how massive of a fiscal package was done to resolve the non performing loans in the banking system:
Ergo, sitting on hands while doing nothing today, while facing the continued real estate market implosion, is not going to cut it.
The longer this drags on the bigger the package is necessary.
None of these issues, by the way, are in anyway contradictory to the highly successful "Industrial Upgrade Theme" that takes up 99% of the mindshare of people in this thread.
proelite
Junior Member
Any "huge" package gets us back into the imbalance that was created after 2008.
The dividends from the industrial investment in the past five years have not kicked in yet and the costs from a big real estate bubble burst had been contained pretty well and at any rate those costs are rapidly receding as the bubble unwinds.
China electricity usage increased 7% last year and is on track to grow 8% growth this year. What failing economy grows 7+% two years in row?
In 2009, the US undergoing a similar RE bubble burst had electricity usage fall 4%. That is not happening to China's economy.
Pour that money into science, technology and industry. We know the embargoes and bans will come and those are hard assets that will power the economy forward.
When have I ever said that it was ALL retirement driven?
Don't fucking go strawmanning.
Ps. I remember pretty clearly that you said it wasn't really worth posting on this forum and that you would stop, why ya back?
Also, I'm in agreement with Glenn here as well
Yup, this is about as bad as it would get for China.
As bad as it gets for China is still an annual 7-8% growth in electricity consumption:
The paywall bypass doesn't work for me, but I would expect moves 2H of this year.
This is precisely the problem - people are working the longest hours ever in China, companies are making more 'stuff', yet are selling them cheaper than before: Price is down, Quantity is up, net/net revenues are flat.
Very much "再苦苦百姓“ vibes - which is why people aren't happy.
As I've made abundantly clear before, nobody is suggesting that they do Shantytown 2.0.
The place where the fiscal package goes to is extremely important - it has to be directed to social welfare so people feel like they are getting fruits from their hard work.
When you refused to acknowledge employment weakness in Beijing is due to economic weakness.
I changed my mind and thought I'd do some more public education for you.
China doesn't want the a bubble prone real state market to be a unproductive driver of the Chinese economy, also there is the issue of the future, home prices should be driven by supply and demand no by speculation if a country wants a future, if house are not affordable for young people they will not want to deal with the expenses of a child.
So China need to be prepare in case interest rates fall and speculative money start pouring again into the market, if prices are high and interest rates go down is over, speculative money will flood the market.
The US is in a pretty bad situation because of this, the housing market need to crash before interest rates go down to houses be affordable again. But it can't because the housing supply is pretty low. The FED is trapped between a rock and hard place, if interest rates go down now it could be that people in the US will be living in expensive tents in the near future.
So China need to be prepare in case interest rates fall and speculative money start pouring again into the market, if prices are high and interest rates go down is over, speculative money will flood the market.
The US is in a pretty bad situation because of this, the housing market need to crash before interest rates go down to houses be affordable again. But it can't because the housing supply is pretty low. The FED is trapped between a rock and hard place, if interest rates go down now it could be that people in the US will be living in expensive tents in the near future.
??
Again, you putting things I never said.
?
When did I say anything like people had great confidence or the likes?
Again putting things I didn't say in my mouth