The bottom 50% in China actually gets quite a lot of transfers
Yeah, I've written about China's "in-kind social transfers" in this thread for a long time. Not counting it also undercounts actual consumption. China doesn't have as low consumption as commonly believed.
why RMB500 per month ? why not RMB1000 ?
Currently abut 10M babies per year are born, lets say will increase to 15M babies
Lol, why do people think increasing fertility is a matter of just money printer go brr? Tons of countries have tried to bribe parents to have more kids and invariably all attempts have failed.
Fertility is to a significant extent a function of two things: poverty and/or religiosity. To increase fertility, China either has to become Maoist poor again or it has to become much more religious. Neither is preferable or likely. So neither will happen and fertility will stay low.
It's the same choice in the West. The only rich country with high fertility is Israel, which has a genuine religious fundamentalist problem which is getting worse. There are no good options to raise fertility. You have to completely change your standard of living or live in a much more intolerant social environment, driven by religious prejudice. Neither is acceptable to most societies, which is why fertility will not rise in any meaningful way. Money printer can't bail you out.