Chinese Economics Thread

[Michaelsinodef]

Total employment in Beijing was -2.7%. If you believe that this reduction was due to somehow a massive uptick of retirements, show me the work.

I dunno.

Maybe you should not have skipped this part of my reply:

And?

One likely would also need workforce age and movements, total Beijing population movement, and also workforce hukuo distribution though.

To get an actual deeper and meaningful analysis.

Prices are lower yes, but as more companies are going out of business and are hiring less people at lower wages. Lower wages = less consumption = even less revenues = more losses. This is by definition a deflation spiral.

Then show me the work, how many companies are going out of business?

Is it everywhere in China? Etc.

Yes, jianbing stands are not covered, but are you going to tell me you have a way to statistically consolidate the financial results of the jianbing stands all around Beijing? "Nobody Knows" is the correct answer, which does not mean "They are definitely better than the industry which had earnings fall by 90%".

Don't be disingenuous.
Some smaller family owned restaurant could also very well fall under the 5m amount (or be above, but not registered).

This section, could very well go above some 10-20% of the number on restaurants, which definitely is quite a significant amount not captured in statistics.

 

[bobsagget]

Things are worsening (you see employment fell 2.7% in Beijing) - you might as well argue that the first knife cut of 凌迟 isn't too bad. Until there is something positive on the time horizon, things will continue to grind lower and worse off.

How is Shanghai retail data 'too vague'? Do elaborate more.

Also, if things "are not bad", why is there serious consideration for a 80-100bp cut to existing mortgage rates?



This sounds like you are shit out of luck living in NYC with that kind of rent - but do me a favor and leave your personal situation outside of a discussion about the Chinese economy. As I've stated *many* times, that the US has a shithole of an economy does not make China's problems go away. Move out of the US if you're so pissed off? Hell, if China is great move there? If you personally chose to live that life in NYC - stop bitching about it and grow the f up.

Brother ease the hostility i am explaining market dynamics attack the argument not me. I am not saying everything is perfect in china far from it . Due to automation they have a vast oversupply of laborers but this is a growing global issue capitalism has no answer for what to do when market efficiency is so great that a vast majority of the population is a net negative if put to work . At this point all that matters is resource extraction capacity, manufacturing capacity and energy generation in addition to food production. Finance real estate insurance all these speculative fake industries generate no actual useful goods .

 

[bobsagget]

You don't need to speculate how many "star athletes/scientists" China will lose as part of that. There is already a number for how many millionaires that left China in 2023. 15 000. Or 0.15%, which is below the developed country standard for high income expatriation, meaning compared to other developed countries, China made a gain in "star athletes/scientists" retention.

Why should Chinese people move? Yes, government is making them get real jobs instead of leeching off others with 0 productivity. But the knock on effects from not having to pay a crippling fee for housing anymore means higher quality and more affordable daily consumption. Things people can actually enjoy rather than paying for housing.

The rentier class is getting poorer, the rest richer. But most rentiers don't live in a vacuum. They have children in collage, middle class friends etc. Plus the rest becoming richer generates more services and products for the rentiers to explore, and they have more than enough money even after the crackdown to enjoy the boom. This is why China's expatriation rate of upper class people was so low in 2023, and will likely remain the same onwards.

It really is a Gordon Gecko mentality of greed is good . As you point out why should anyone mourn the loss of conmen who over consume snd under produce. The fact is if we look at meaningful metrics ex life expectancy suicide rates drug overdoses and crime something is vastly wrong with the american model . Not only that but for all the supposed corruption in china there is more in the usa. Everyone remember 2008 yet no one went to prison for that. Instead the govt subsidized private corporate losses and nothing changed. Or Purdue pharma bribing the fda to say opiates were non addictive and referring to clients as pillbillies and literally waging an opium war on the usa. They have just been given immunity to lawsuits. Heck we had a judge get arrested for falsely sentincing children to prison on fake charges for kick backs from a private prison. He sentenced thousands. The point is that anyone decrying chinese corruption as fatal really needs to examine the USA much more closely. Cops can legally steal your money and property under asset forfeiture laws and for the last decade have taken more money and property than criminals. I am just saying some people in here need to reconsider how they view things.

edit: to show the absurdity of us gdp metrics i broke my arm with a spiral fracture. For surgery and x ray my insurance company was billed 28k usd . I paid out of pocket 4k usd . So that means my broken arm generated 32k usd of economic activity. Yet if i went to mexico i would only have been charged a few hundred for the same care. Fun fact i paid 80 dollars for 4 tablets of ibuprofen
Additional fun fact: your median us worker in a year earns around 38k usd. That means my broken arm was worth more than nearly what 50 percent of americans earn a year in income. This brings up a separate issue of the fact we have unforgivable types of debt ex student loans which are also factored into gdp and allow for very creative accounting.

 

[doggydogdo]

You need to go back and retake Remedial Accounting 101. Loans issued by banks *are* assets. The fact that there is a massive pile of assets, is in fact confirming my point that there are a lot of loans issued, a big chunk of which are to mortgagees (38 trln) and developers (10s of trillions) and local government financing vehicles. Bad assets are digested via recognizing provisions for credit losses. You should stop embarrassing yourself.

I know, so does China.

 

[siegecrossbow]

It really is a Gordon Gecko mentality of greed is good . As you point out why should anyone mourn the loss of conmen who over consume snd under produce. The fact is if we look at meaningful metrics ex life expectancy suicide rates drug overdoses and crime something is vastly wrong with the american model . Not only that but for all the supposed corruption in china there is more in the usa. Everyone remember 2008 yet no one went to prison for that. Instead the govt subsidized private corporate losses and nothing changed. Or Purdue pharma bribing the fda to say opiates were non addictive and referring to clients as pillbillies and literally waging an opium war on the usa. They have just been given immunity to lawsuits. Heck we had a judge get arrested for falsely sentincing children to prison on fake charges for kick backs from a private prison. He sentenced thousands. The point is that anyone decrying chinese corruption as fatal really needs to examine the USA much more closely. Cops can legally steal your money and property under asset forfeiture laws and for the last decade have taken more money and property than criminals. I am just saying some people in here need to reconsider how they view things.

edit: to show the absurdity of us gdp metrics i broke my arm with a spiral fracture. For surgery and x ray my insurance company was billed 28k usd . I paid out of pocket 4k usd . So that means my broken arm generated 32k usd of economic activity. Yet if i went to mexico i would only have been charged a few hundred for the same care. Fun fact i paid 80 dollars for 4 tablets of ibuprofen
Additional fun fact: your median us worker in a year earns around 38k usd. That means my broken arm was worth more than nearly what 50 percent of americans earn a year in income. This brings up a separate issue of the fact we have unforgivable types of debt ex student loans which are also factored into gdp and allow for very creative accounting.

Lmfao no.

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[FairAndUnbiased]

10 days in the drunk tank and 1000 RMB fine...come on dude that's more lenient than a mosquito bite. The more important question is how this lady had the balls to do this - who was her dad?



Revenues =/= GDP. You cannot do that math without accounting for the multiplier effect.

That is just the start of administrative punishments. The lawsuit is getting started.

The multiplier effect here isn't going to be orders of magnitude since many of their inputs are also from Chinese suppliers and customers are also Chinese. Much of the multiplier effect has already been captured.

 

[abenomics12345]

For the dEfLaTiOn iS gOoD fanboys:

I know, so does China.
View attachment 135288

Talk to Richard Xu and ask him how much more NPLs need to be recognized that haven't yet been recognized. Now do the math with NIMs compressing as LPR continues to get cut. Razor thin margins. And then layer on the risk of LGFVs/mortgages defaulting if this keeps spiraling out of control.

If I'm not clear, cutting rates further doesn't help much because we've been stuck in a liquidity trap for about 2 years.

That is just the start of administrative punishments. The lawsuit is getting started.

Lets track this story and see how it plays out. I am skeptical that anything major is going to come out of it (lightest of slap on the wrist at most). It was pretty fking clear the way she was behaving that she was part of the so called 县城婆罗门 class.

 

[daifo]

This professor suspect that the Chinese economy may be 2x larger than the US.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1797131985522925785

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

This professor suspect that the Chinese economy may be 2x larger than the US.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1797131985522925785

but have you considered the highly valuable and enriching effects of high medical costs, insurance, financial products, NFTs and OnlyFans?

 

[manqiangrexue]

but have you considered the highly valuable and enriching effects of high medical costs, insurance, financial products, NFTs and OnlyFans?

You forgot education costs.

And while China has a gray market selling everyday goods on street corners without tax, how that compares in size to America's black market for fentanyl, Tranq, meth, coke, weed, heroine, and goods stolen in mob store robberies is unknown; could go either way.