Chinese Economics Thread

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
And while China has a gray market selling everyday goods on street corners without tax, how that compares in size to America's black market for fentanyl, Tranq, coke, weed, heroine, and goods stolen in mob store robberies is unknown; could go either way.
this shows immense supremacy in distributed chemical manufacturing services and robust local logistics networks, as well as repurposing redundant inventory for efficient distribution.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
this shows immense supremacy in distributed chemical manufacturing services and robust local logistics networks, as well as repurposing redundant inventory for efficient distribution.
And that reflects the operational genius of the US government which had the incredible foresight to boost these invaluable GDP contributors by passing the laws in California making it unarrestable offenses to rob a store, assault someone (leading to valuable increases in healthcare GDP generation) or sell drugs... or basically anything less than first degree murder, in which case there might be probation time after an overnight stay at the police station.
 
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HighGround

Senior Member
Registered Member
For the dEfLaTiOn iS gOoD fanboys:
I came to a conclusion a few weeks ago that people in general don't actually understand the effects of deflation.

Or inflation or the money supply in general.

Talk to Richard Xu and ask him how much more NPLs need to be recognized that haven't yet been recognized. Now do the math with NIMs compressing as LPR continues to get cut. Razor thin margins. And then layer on the risk of LGFVs/mortgages defaulting if this keeps spiraling out of control.

If I'm not clear, cutting rates further doesn't help much because we've been stuck in a liquidity trap for about 2 years.

It does buy time though and time is probably the biggest bottleneck. Reforms and market stabilization take time to take effect.

From what I understand, most real estate sq. footage has been created in Tier 3 cities and below. Has there been any significant movement towards making those properties and those cities more attractive to prospective buyers?
 

Jiang ZeminFanboy

Senior Member
Registered Member
As I said before, give money for a child 500 rmb per month until the child is 18 years old and almost every problem China has now will disappear.

In Poland in 2016 we introduced 500 pln per month for a child, and since then until covid it was the biggest boom years I think I had ever seen in Poland history. Everything was booming, from real estate to consumption.
 

antiterror13

Brigadier
As I said before, give money for a child 500 rmb per month until the child is 18 years old and almost every problem China has now will disappear.

In Poland in 2016 we introduced 500 pln per month for a child, and since then until covid it was the biggest boom years I think I had ever seen in Poland history. Everything was booming, from real estate to consumption.

why RMB500 per month ? why not RMB1000 ?

Currently abut 10M babies per year are born, lets say will increase to 15M babies

It means there will be 15M x 18 = 270M child under 18 yrs old. The cost to the Chinese govt would be 270M x RMB500 x12 = RMB1.6T or roughly 1.27% of GDP (RMB126T) .... I think China can afford it

I just don't understand how you came up with RMB500 per month per baby, what is the logic ?
 

Jiang ZeminFanboy

Senior Member
Registered Member
why RMB500 per month ? why not RMB1000 ?

Currently abut 10M babies per year are born, lets say will increase to 15M babies

It means there will be 15M x 18 = 270M child under 18 yrs old. The cost to the Chinese govt would be 270M x RMB500 x12 = RMB1.6T or roughly 1.27% of GDP (RMB126T) .... I think China can afford it

I just don't understand how you came up with RMB500 per month per baby, what is the logic ?
China was reluctant to give any cash boost, so I went to more conservative approach. I thought about 500 rmb cause when I look at prices and earnings of Chinese and Polish people it's mostly like price of things and earnings are very similar in the way that 1 zł is 1 rmb however that's not the official exchange rate.

And at the beginning Polish program started with 500 zł in 2016, this year it was risen to 800 zł. I think for the start 500 rmb would be good.

I would called the program a 'national dividend' for every family to participate equally in the national growth.
 

Xiongmao

Junior Member
Registered Member
As I said before, give money for a child 500 rmb per month until the child is 18 years old and almost every problem China has now will disappear.

In Poland in 2016 we introduced 500 pln per month for a child, and since then until covid it was the biggest boom years I think I had ever seen in Poland history. Everything was booming, from real estate to consumption.
Just to add that in the UK, every child gets about £100 per month, or about 900RMB per month until they are 18 years old, known as child benefit. And the UK is f*cked, so this plan is not sufficient.
 

Index

Senior Member
Registered Member
This professor suspect that the Chinese economy may be 2x larger than the US.

The only thing you get from gdp is foreign confidence. It's only tangentially related at best to living standard. China has repeatedly and systematically undercooked gdp using their measuring methods, only "fixing" elements of it when they're called out for long enough.

Only reason they climbed to no1 in gdp is because they could not realistically hide it anymore.
 

resistance

Junior Member
Registered Member
Just to add that in the UK, every child gets about £100 per month, or about 900RMB per month until they are 18 years old, known as child benefit. And the UK is f*cked, so this plan is not sufficient.
I think free universal healthcare, free school for all children under 30 yrs old is better approach.
Maybe free coupon for laptop and tablets for all students too.
 
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