Chinese Economics Thread

zbb

Junior Member
Registered Member
Why all the discussion on predicting disposable income from electricity usage? We have direct
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In the first half of 2024, average disposable income grew 5.4%, with rural residents seeing greater growth (6.8%) than urban residents (4.6%). Median disposable income grew by 5.9%, more than the average of 5.4%, which indicates that income of the rich grew less than those of the poorer half of the population and so a decrease in income inequality.
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Michaelsinodef

Senior Member
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You answered yourself there. Working 8 a day in AC cooled office =\= working 12/day running in traffic trying to avoid getting hit by drivers + delivering food on time.
And are those working 12 hours outside actually having their work hours increase by 20 minutes.

Or is it the office job people having their hours increase which increases the average.
 

henrik

Senior Member
Registered Member
After the recent typhoon in China, electricity were cut off, the people desperately wanted to charge their EVs and phones. But because all your money is in your smartphone, without mobile payment, the people could not even buy some food and recharge their EVs. This is going to cause disruption in the economy.
 

henrik

Senior Member
Registered Member
Also, I do think it's smart for China to just keep the a-shares low for now (especially this year).

With the coming bust of US in the next half year, it would not be good to have it be too high or hot when that happens.

Are you saying the US economy or the stock market will go bust soon?
 

Jiang ZeminFanboy

Senior Member
Registered Member
It was even worse for the rest of the world that didn’t industrialize…

Real estate as a % of GDP was and still is too high. It’s around 25% last time I checked. Compared to 15 to 18% in the US historically. While a stimulus on consumer spending is probably needed I don’t think you can do anything to stop the housing bubble from deflating because there’s so much stacked against it, from years of over building & speculation to falling demographics.

China will be experiencing property deflation for a while; it can’t be helped because earlier leaders like Hu did nothing to address it.
25% was before the crash, right now it is about 18%.

The property crash was fast, it has fallen for like 40% during these years, I don't see a room for long fall in real estate further. It's already under the normal replacement level for flats, this year should be the last in fall of real estate.

The only way the real estate would continue to fall in 2025 if the economy would worsen from this year
 

pbd456

Junior Member
Registered Member
After the recent typhoon in China, electricity were cut off, the people desperately wanted to charge their EVs and phones. But because all your money is in your smartphone, without mobile payment, the people could not even buy some food and recharge their EVs. This is going to cause disruption in the economy.
On what basis are you saying this? The typhoon was gone for a few days and the news last night was death in VIETNAM due to the typhoon. If there is serious disruption, it would have been reported
 

GiantPanda

Junior Member
Registered Member
…and it was shitty for the average worker/citizen in those two periods of times.

Which of course with you living overseas it doesn’t matter. Check your biases.

It was and still is far more shitty to be in places that was not industrializing at all. The industrial revolution was what created developed nations after all. You are arguing for the sake of argument in order to push the idiotic Western narrative that China needs to do some sort of stimulus because it is "failing."

1) A country that is growing 7% every year in electricity consumption is growing its economy no matter what West tries to tell you -- slowing economies do not increase electricity at this rate.

2) A developing country with lots of growing to do -- which China is -- will gain productivity far ahead of wage increases; developed nations are the ones where productivity gains matches or are lower than wage increases (this is basically inflation),

3) in China's case, inflation is almost nil, so the net effect of a 3% raise is an actual raise and not just a cost of living adjustment to match inflation; now are there some people unhappy even with this? Of course but no country grows at 8-10% forever,

4) Proper welfare -- which should include infrastructure that adds huge value as well as cost savings to people's lives -- are not something that you would see the results of this year or even the next five so it is meaningless to discuss the current situation as example why we need them; the current program of building out EVs, robotics, green tech, etc. could impact national welfare positively in the coming years the same way China's HSR and its highway system did,

5) Hoping China would pursue these ridiculous short-term stimulus spending so we could see "more" consumption in China is idiocy; it is far better to pour those funds into capacity for high value technological research, development and production -- hard assets that will drive growth and employment long term instead of a meaningless short-term spike from stimulus.
 

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
After the recent typhoon in China, electricity were cut off, the people desperately wanted to charge their EVs and phones. But because all your money is in your smartphone, without mobile payment, the people could not even buy some food and recharge their EVs. This is going to cause disruption in the economy.

This comment doesn't make sense.

Smartphones typically have a 0.01 kWh battery.
In comparison, EVs have huge batteries, and even an EV in a low charge state can spare that much power. After all, it only works out as about 40 metres/yards distance.

If anything, people will fully charge their EVs in advance of a typhoon, just like how you ensure your smartphone is fully charged.
And those EVs can power homes and their air conditioning systems
 

GiantPanda

Junior Member
Registered Member
This comment doesn't make sense.

Smartphones typically have a 0.01 kWh battery.
In comparison, EVs have huge batteries, and even an EV in a low charge state can spare that much power. After all, it only works out as about 40 metres/yards distance.

If anything, people will fully charge their EVs in advance of a typhoon, just like how you ensure your smartphone is fully charged.
And those EVs can power homes and their air conditioning systems

Yes EVs become generators during outages.

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