Chinese Economics Thread

[horse]

Chengwei Capital Chairman Eric Li, speaking at the Ambrosetti Forum, says China's economy is experiencing short-term pain as it transitions toward a new growth model.

 

[Heliox]

This comment doesn't make sense.

Smartphones typically have a 0.01 kWh battery.
In comparison, EVs have huge batteries, and even an EV in a low charge state can spare that much power. After all, it only works out as about 40 metres/yards distance.

If anything, people will fully charge their EVs in advance of a typhoon, just like how you ensure your smartphone is fully charged.
And those EVs can power homes and their air conditioning systems

OTOH, if the shops can't get power, your phone's gonna be a tad useless cos their POS systems aren't functioning or ... if the boss is using his phone to receive payment, it's contingent on there being telecommunications.

After the recent typhoon in China, electricity were cut off, the people desperately wanted to charge their EVs and phones. But because all your money is in your smartphone, without mobile payment, the people could not even buy some food and recharge their EVs. This is going to cause disruption in the economy.

You know a typhoon is coming. A big one at that too. People are preparing sandbags and taping windows. Local govts are pruning trees in advance.

And you don't stock up on power banks, food, water, etc ... wtf?? Honestly, these people deserve to starve if that be the case.

A once-a-decade Typhoon hits - so of course it's gonna disrupt the economy. No shit.
But are we talking about US recovery response of 2 to 3 weeks (eg. Katrina and Sandy) or are we talking China-Speed recovery? Last I heard, they intend to have power and telecoms fully restored by tomorrow - 5 days. IINM, school has already resumed.

So yes, there's gonna be disruptions but are you projecting from US experience or are you accounting for #ChinaSpeed experience?

 

[lube]

You know a typhoon is coming. A big one at that too. People are preparing sandbags and taping windows. Local govts are pruning trees in advance.

And you don't stock up on power banks, food, water, etc ... wtf?? Honestly, these people deserve to starve if that be the case.

A once-a-decade Typhoon hits - so of course it's gonna disrupt the economy. No shit.
But are we talking about US recovery response of 2 to 3 weeks (eg. Katrina and Sandy) or are we talking China-Speed recovery? Last I heard, they intend to have power and telecoms fully restored by tomorrow - 5 days. IINM, school has already resumed.

So yes, there's gonna be disruptions but are you projecting from US experience or are you accounting for #ChinaSpeed experience?

Not preparing for a natural disaster is something that only happens once.

Don't think it's that likely people will forget to prep up next time when you're getting hit with storms of the decade every year.
I'll be more concerned about losing internet for multiple days than losing power.

Anyway I found out he's just copying & rewording half of a tweet from an anti-China account without linking it so that's why it feels so off. At least there's a video there for "some" context, but that account also pushes misinformation every day.

Maybe too embarrassed to reveal that he's been copying stuff from that account. If there's suddenly a random chunk of text with no context?

After the recent typhoon in China, electricity were cut off, the people desperately wanted to charge their EVs and phones. But because all your money is in your smartphone, without mobile payment, the people could not even buy some food and recharge their EVs. This is going to cause disruption in the economy.

 

[AndrewS]

OTOH, if the shops can't get power, your phone's gonna be a tad useless cos their POS systems aren't functioning or ... if the boss is using his phone to receive payment, it's contingent on there being telecommunications.

Small shops can be powered from EV batteries as well? And the worst case is you use a smartphone and take payments on a personal account.

I imagine you could also power telecoms base stations with the battery from an EV.

 

[BlackWindMnt]

Not preparing for a natural disaster is something that only happens once.

Don't think it's that likely people will forget to prep up next time when you're getting hit with storms of the decade every year.
I'll be more concerned about losing internet for multiple days than losing power.

Anyway I found out he's just copying & rewording half of a tweet from an anti-China account without linking it so that's why it feels so off. At least there's a video there for "some" context, but that account also pushes misinformation every day.

Maybe too embarrassed to reveal that he's been copying stuff from that account. If there's suddenly a random chunk of text with no context?



View attachment 135466

Thats why you should have a plastic card with credit. If im not mistaken the digital Renminbi should support this non digital transactions.

 

[Michaelsinodef]

Are you saying the US economy or the stock market will go bust soon?

Yes (within next 6 months).

Am willing to make a bet with you as well if you want

 

[tphuang]

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Douyin e-commerce says its GMV has grown 46% in past year. New businesses have grown by 83%.
In May, Douyin e-commerce reported 2023 GMV of 2.7T with goal of 4T this year.

For comparison, Alibaba was at 7.2T last year and PDD was at 4.05T.

 

[supersnoop]

Chengwei Capital Chairman Eric Li, speaking at the Ambrosetti Forum, says China's economy is experiencing short-term pain as it transitions toward a new growth model.

I think this is a reasonable assessment and in line with a more moderated view of what's going on.
I don't think burying one's head in the sand and saying "everything's fine!" is the correct assessment. There are some painful reckonings coming in the Chinese economy, this is a fact.

That being said, there are some fundamental supports in place that aren't going anywhere like the industry and infrastructure.

 

[gelgoog]

Life expectancy rose by 22% in the USA between 1870 and 1900.
Obviously this was due to medical improvements not deflation. But the same societal productivity advancements caused deflation.

The biggest single improvement in life expectancy isn't medical care, but having clean running water.

 

[GiantPanda]

I think this is a reasonable assessment and in line with a more moderated view of what's going on.
I don't think burying one's head in the sand and saying "everything's fine!" is the correct assessment. There are some painful reckonings coming in the Chinese economy, this is a fact.

That being said, there are some fundamental supports in place that aren't going anywhere like the industry and infrastructure.

It is a reasonable assessment because it touched on the generational shift that is going on in China.

This is the furthest thing from burying one's head in the sand.

They've actively popped the RE bubble. They've actively and massively moved investment from RE to a plethora of high value sectors.

I've said this over and over. The dividends from this shift to high end research, development AND manufacturing away from RE have not yet arrived.

But at the same time China has still managed growth and from what increase in electricity demand tells us, it is still pretty fast growth in the real economy at that.

Again, insisting that China is "doing nothing" is nothing but silly code term for idiots and more malign actors saying " we do not see short-term stimulus."

There is no greater change, no greater transition going on in the world right now than what we see in China.