Chinese Aviation Industry

A

AndrewS

Brigadier
Registered Member
Maikeru said:
With JL10 and GJ11 in its product portfolio Hongdu seems better placed for an independent future than Guizhou was. More advanced technology than Shenyang is currently building (i.e. Flanker derivatives).
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But if you think about it, how many aircraft manufacturers can China sustain?

The US is down to 2 capable of designing and making fighter jets. Every other country only has a single company, if that.
So one group forming around CAC and another around SAC looks reasonable.

Also remember that the Hongdu GJ-11 was actually designed by SAC
 
W

weig2000

Captain
AndrewS said:
But if you think about it, how many aircraft manufacturers can China sustain?

The US is down to 2 capable of designing and making fighter jets. Every other country only has a single company, if that.
So one group forming around CAC and another around SAC looks reasonable.

Also remember that the Hongdu GJ-11 was actually designed by SAC
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Other than the US, every other country is not a benchmark for Chinese MIC, including the aircraft manufacturers, for obvious reasons. Even the US finds they probably went too far with the consolidation of aircraft manufacturers, now that LM dominates in fighter aircraft.

Chinese aircraft industry will probably consolidate around SAC, CAC, XAC and COMAC, with cooperation and competition among them. You need two manufacturers competing in the larger fighter aircraft sector for advance in technology and productivity improvement. With J-35 landed at SAC, a balance of sort has been achieved between CAC and SAC for now. XAC and COMAC focus on larger aircraft, one primarily in military, the other in commercial. The two also have very close cooperation, e.g. ARJ-21, C-919. In the future, it's conceivable that XAC and COMAC can compete with each other, each getting into other's turf. COMAC can produce for the military transporters, AWACS, tankers based on its civilian product lineups. XAC currently produces some civilian turbojet aircraft; they could get into civilian aircraft sector deeper, due to potential technology synergy and experience.
 
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j17wang

j17wang

Senior Member
Registered Member
weig2000 said:
Other than the US, every other country is not a benchmark for Chinese MIC, including the aircraft manufacturers, for obvious reasons. Even the US finds they probably went too far with the consolidation of aircraft manufacturers, now that LM dominates in fighter aircraft.

Chinese aircraft industry will probably consolidate around SAC, CAC, XAC and COMAC, with cooperation and competition among them. You need two manufacturers competing in the larger fighter aircraft sector for advance in technology and productivity improvement. With J-35 landed at SAC, a balance of sort has been achieved between CAC and SAC for now. XAC and COMAC focus on larger aircraft, one primarily in military, the other in commercial. The two also have very close cooperation, e.g. ARJ-21, C-919. In the future, it's conceivable that XAC and COMAC can compete with each other, each getting into other's turf. COMAC can produce for the military transporters, AWACS, tankers based on its civilian product lineups. XAC currently produces some civilian turbojet aircraft; they could get into civilian aircraft sector deeper, due to potential technology synergy and experience.
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I wouldnt hurt to also do more JVs and cooperation with UAC. Ideally, it would be nice if Russia could re-split UAC in two so it doesnt have a monopolized aviation sector and be more competitive/efficient, but that is a Russian sovereign choice. Realistically, China and Russia should prepare for eventual full sanctions and as a result require a complete aviation stack to serve diverse needs within SCO, MEA, and LATAM.
 
G

gelgoog

Lieutenant General
Registered Member
As aircraft have become multi-role the amount of designs required by the air forces of a country has radically decreased. This has led to major downsizing of the military aircraft design bureaus worldwide and a severe concentration of industry. Projects like the F-35 only made this worse by putting all the eggs in the same basket.

The Russian government has tried to throw a bone to Mikoyan more than once. But their repeated failures mean the company cannot survive on its own anymore. They had lots of MiG-29s in service worldwide from the Soviet period and they severely failed to capitalize on that by providing lackluster upgrades which used a lot of foreign components in them and severely increased price. The MiG-29K and MiG-35 are finally steps in the right direction but they arrived over a decade too late to make an impact. Right now MiG have the PAK-DP project but it remains to be seen how effective they will be at it. The MiG Skat UCAV also had promise at one point but they never finished it properly and now it has been replaced with the Sukhoi Okhotnik. The only other team which produced a viable aircraft was the guys who developed the Yak-130 trainer. The team leader on that is now working on drones like the Orion which also seems to be a successful product.

I agree that two design teams is just too little but given the lack of requirement for designs it is hard to justify a larger aircraft design industry for combat aircraft. I think the proliferation of drones has helped somewhat in that it is training a lot of new aircraft design talent so there shouldn't be a problem in the short term.
 
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CasualObserver

CasualObserver

Junior Member
Registered Member
Deino said:
Ahhhm, :oops: o_O surely not! It did not even make its maiden flight, so how should it enter service this year???
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It had problems with the deliveries of the PW-150C engines as Canada blocked the exports, right? Overall, it does not look good for the future of the project. I believe China also doesn't have a modern replacement, right? As the one they have is at least 3 decades old? And afaics it has colliding roles and capabilities with the Arj-21 regarding so besides some export potentials of being a natural MA60 replacement candidate, I don't see a good future regarding the project.
 
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