China's SCS Strategy Thread

[FairAndUnbiased]

Why are you so focused on humiliation? Pride is nothing but worthless ego. I'll trade my pride for power every day of the week.

What China is doing now is letting the Philippines complain all they want while demonstrating that it has not changed the real facts at all. They can have their tantrum and when they are exhausted the situation will be the same. Slow progress is the best because it lets you win without bloodshed. Conflict is expensive, and messy, and can easily get out of control. There's no need to humiliate anyone to win, in fact if you can win without humiliating them it's better because they won't hold a grudge.

Humiliation is very important because it hurts the enemy will to fight. A cornered animal fights 100x as hard even if it still dies in the end, and can still bite you with rabies. That is why the US was careful to always humiliate the Soviets as much as possible and to endlessly spin every defeat as actually a victory - because it gives the will to fight.

 

[Wrought]

Israel is at war for month yet they continue. Ukraine making progress is not a good thing. It means Ukraine is more attractive to invest. Ukraine losing now is actually a good thing. But then Israel happened. Israel is even higher priority than Ukraine, let alone Phillipines

They continue because they can't back down after they started. Giving up now is just admitting failure.

Humiliation is very important because it hurts the enemy will to fight. A cornered animal fights 100x as hard even if it still dies in the end, and can still bite you with rabies. That is why the US was careful to always humiliate the Soviets as much as possible and to endlessly spin every defeat as actually a victory - because it gives the will to fight.

I think a much better way of hurting morale is exhaustion. Which is what China is doing now. Humiliation makes people angry, not depressed. They lash out instead of giving up. To make them give up you need to make them believe resistance is futile.

US propaganda was to boost their own morale, not hurt the Soviets. The Soviets failed because their economy failed, they just ran out of money.

 

[TK3600]

They continue because they can't back down after they started. Giving up now is just admitting failure.



I think a much better way of hurting morale is exhaustion. Which is what China is doing now. Humiliation makes people angry, not depressed. They lash out instead of giving up. To make them give up you need to make them believe resistance is futile.

US propaganda was to boost their own morale, not hurt the Soviets. The Soviets failed because their economy failed, they just ran out of money.

They could slow the tempo and continue after election. SCS is a long standing issue. Couple month is nothing.

 

[Wrought]

They could slow the tempo and continue after election. SCS is a long standing issue. Couple month is nothing.

They are slowing the tempo. Last year had confrontations every month. This year has an airdrop, January talks in Shanghai, agreement to lower tension, and last month's resupply was not contested by CCG. This incident is the only one so far.

 

[TK3600]

They are slowing the tempo. Last year had confrontations every month. This year has an airdrop, January talks in Shanghai, an agreement to lower tension, and last month's resupply was not contested by CCG. This incident is the only one so far.

Strange ccg is contesting for no reason. There must have been something different. Perhaps the vice admiral photo op. That set China off.

 

[Wrought]

Strange ccg is contesting for no reason. There must have been something different. Perhaps the vice admiral photo op. That set China off.

There was a reason. I already posted about CCG warning the ship away and the admiral deciding to ignore it (before getting water cannoned). And this month is the first time Philippines tried using UM4 to resupply, a bigger ship than the previous UM1/UM2. CCG allowed UM1 through, but not UM4.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

They continue because they can't back down after they started. Giving up now is just admitting failure.



I think a much better way of hurting morale is exhaustion. Which is what China is doing now. Humiliation makes people angry, not depressed. They lash out instead of giving up. To make them give up you need to make them believe resistance is futile.

US propaganda was to boost their own morale, not hurt the Soviets. The Soviets failed because their economy failed, they just ran out of money.

China humiliating Taiwan hurt Taiwanese morale. Have a quick look at the Taiwan strategy thread to see how CCG humiliating the Taiwanese coast guard (justly, in response to their aggression) is harming them.

Are they angry? Yes - at their government for allowing them to be humiliated. Notice how none of them are actually angry at China itself.

 

[Wrought]

China humiliating Taiwan hurt Taiwanese morale. Have a quick look at the Taiwan strategy thread to see how CCG humiliating the Taiwanese coast guard (justly, in response to their aggression) is harming them.

Are they angry? Yes - at their government for allowing them to be humiliated. Notice how none of them are actually angry at China itself.

I don't think this is a very good comparison to the Philippines. The fishing incident where two men died right? Even a rabid separatist would have trouble explaining how they deserved to die. That guilt makes a shadow where any CCG action seems very justified and anyone even somewhat reasonable would be embarassed at their own government, for being foolish and weak and letting all it happen in the first place.

 

[FairAndUnbiased]

I don't think this is a very good comparison to the Philippines. The fishing incident where two men died right? Even a rabid separatist would have trouble explaining how they deserved to die. That guilt makes any CCG action seem very justified and anyone even somewhat reasonable would be embarassed at their own government.

not incident. Taiwanese coast guard rammed them when they were leaving.

The commonality with the Philippines is that they were acting at either the direct or indirect orders of some certain extraregional country. Humiliating them and crushing their spirit is the only way for them to see reason and the way to do that is to hit them hard without being exposed to any substantial retaliation.

 

[Wrought]

not incident. Taiwanese coast guard rammed them when they were leaving.

The commonality with the Philippines is that they were acting at either the direct or indirect orders of some certain extraregional country. Humiliating them and crushing their spirit is the only way for them to see reason and the way to do that is to hit them hard without being exposed to any substantial retaliation.

Ramming is an obvious act of aggression, ramming and killing even moreso. The Philippines are not ramming anyone, they are being rammed, which is why they are upset. The difference is that Taiwanese see themselves at fault, Filipinos don't.

Now if Filipinos are dumb enough to kill Chinese fishermen, that is a different story of course. But so far they have not done anything aggressive. Which should make it quite clear that the ones making the decisions are not insane nationalists looking to commit suicide. They are trying to do the opposite, to paint themselves as victims. That's why I am in favor of the current restrained actions, because slow and gradual pressure denies them most of the opportunity. CCG being more aggressive is what the Filipinos want.