China's SCS Strategy Thread

Micron

Junior Member
Registered Member
A macaque playing a game of chicken with a regional 800lb gorilla, there could only be one victim.
And the funny part is the victim will then try to play victim in front of everyone crying for help and solidarity.
Even more funnier is nobody seems to be interested or wants to get involved.
This is will be an example of killing a chicken to scare a hundred.
What does Bongbong hope to achieve by all these provocations? The result is certain.
 

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
Apparently CCG informed UM4 that only one ship (presumably referring to UM1) would be allowed through before they used water cannons.



Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
It's interesting to note that this newly appointed Vice-Admiral Alberto Carlos attended a military school with the PLAN in China.

Rear Admiral Alberto Carlos has replaced Vice Admiral Ramil Roberto Enriquez as the new commander of the Western Command (WESCOM). A change of command ceremony was held at the WESCOM Headquarters on Friday.

Carlos, the concurrent commander of the Philippine Fleet, is a graduate of the United States Naval Academy in 1989 and is also a member of the Philippine Military Academy (PMA) Class of 1989. He also completed his General Staff Course at the Naval Command College-People’s Liberation Army-Navy in China in 2008.
 

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
A macaque playing a game of chicken with a regional 800lb gorilla, there could only be one victim.
And the funny part is the victim will then try to play victim in front of everyone crying for help and solidarity.
Even more funnier is nobody seems to be interested or wants to get involved.
This is will be an example of killing a chicken to scare a hundred.
What does Bongbong hope to achieve by all these provocations? The result is certain.
Filipinos aren't known throughout it's history as "strategic thinkers" but rather emotional followers and actors doing the bidding of whichever greater power is in control of their country. First it was the Spanish, then the Americans that pretty much continued to this very day.

A lot of the fake bravado Filipinos exhibit online are just delusional assumptions that America and the world will come and rescue their hapless country from a potential fight with the Red Dragon.
 

Wrought

Junior Member
Registered Member
Filipinos aren't known throughout it's history as "strategic thinkers" but rather emotional followers and actors doing the bidding of whichever greater power is in control of their country. First it was the Spanish, then the Americans that pretty much continued to this very day.

A lot of the fake bravado Filipinos exhibit online are just delusional assumptions that America and the world will come and rescue their hapless country from a potential fight with the Red Dragon.

It's very foolish to imagine all of your enemies as blind or stupid just because they are your enemies. The
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
. They call it "assertive transparency," and it essentially boils down to a PR campaign of framing Chinese pressure in the worst possible light as a way to build up international sympathy in the hopes of gaining international support (mostly from the US).

And frankly, it's not a terrible strategy given what the Philippines has to work with. They don't have the material strength to resist Chinese action directly. Nonetheless, they don't want to simply concede territory which they claim (rightfully or not) as their own. So they came up with this idea to essentially try and build leverage out of nothing. Is it working? Well kind of, there's no denying that Western media is using it as propaganda. But negative press doesn't change the facts on the ground and Beijing is quite rationally willing to sacrifice reputational points for sea control. Meanwhile, the US has declined to offer any real support.

That being said, just because a strategy failed doesn't retroactively make it a bad idea and it doesn't make you stupid for trying. It's tough being small and weak when your neighbors are big and strong.
 
Last edited:

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
It's very foolish to imagine all of your enemies as blind or stupid just because they are your enemies. The
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
. They call it "assertive transparency," and it essentially boils down to a PR campaign of framing Chinese pressure in the worst possible light as a way to build up international sympathy in the hopes of gaining international support (mostly from the US).

And frankly, it's not a terrible strategy given what the Philippines has to work with. They don't have the material strength to resist Chinese action directly. Nonetheless, they don't want to simply concede territory which they claim (rightfully or not) as their own. It's hard being small and weak when your neighbors are big and strong. So they came up with this idea to essentially try and build leverage out of nothing. Is it working? Well kind of, there's no denying that Western media is using it as propaganda. But negative press doesn't change the facts on the ground and Beijing is quite rationally willing to sacrifice reputational points for sea control. And the US has declined to offer any real support, because they already have the bases they want.

Still, I disagree with the idea that the Philippines is delusional. They have a rational strategy, and whether or not it works doesn't change its rationality.
That is not "A STRATEGY" it's a foolish endeavor of a desperate country that's in a dire desperate situation. A country ill prepared to face the coming of A.I. a country that's increasing it's extreme poverty, crimes, and political infighting.

If the PH was a rational country, lead by rational and pragmatic "leaders" they would not try to lead themselves and their country down to the road of primrose path. What's the urgency and suddenness of the PH action against it's dispute with China? What has changed on the ground in terms of physical infrastructure, patrols, and military presence from China in the region? Has it lessened or grown in frequency, size, and actions become more aggressive? Is there an actual existential threat emanating from China and it's supposed maligned activities in the region that hastened the dramatic aggressive and desperate tone and actions of the PH towards China?

The flare up and disputes on those waters are nothing new as it's been a consistent patterns between all claimants for many decades. The building of the artificial islands was not started by China - it was started by Vietnam if am not mistaken. But, due to China's heft, wealth, diplomatic, and military power it elected to build it's own islands to ensure and maximize its own claims against others. That's a rational action taken by a rationale actor and country.

It's only until the pivot to Asia as committed by then Pres. Obama that the PH started to really assert it's claims and pushed their luck against China. It was during the time of the now deceased PH former Pres. Noynoy Aquino Jr. that the dispute were internationalize at the behest and guidance from its saint patron and master, the U.S. Hence, the subject was then taken to UNCLOS/ITLOS that subsequently ruled in the PH favor. This issue became muted or mooted due to the UNEXPECTED rise AND ELECTION OF DUTERTE which place this supposed existential PH issue at the back burner of domestic priority and importance. Showing the inanity, not to mention THE ARROGANCE OF PHILIPPINE/FILIPINO ELITES/AMERICAN COMPRADORS AND YES, THEIR BLEEPING STUPIDITY that the majority of their people thought it was DRUGS, CRIME, CORRUPTION, POVERTY, JOB OPPORTUNITY were the PRESSING CONCERNS AND NEED of the country. The relationship between China and the PH improved and there were various discussion about resource sharing on those disputed islands. But Duterte could not get anywhere since he was essentially a caretaker president once his 1 and only term passed the 4 year mark. He was simply going to be waited out by the ENTRENCHED WESTERN/AMERICAN COMPROMISED bureaucrats, POLITICIANS most of which have U.S. residency, U.S. passport holders, owned businesses in America, studied in America etc...Duterte provided the PH a once in a generational escape pod from the clutches of America, his country's elite apparatchik chose to disregard his insights as COWARDLY...LOL...


The PH have yet to exercise a degree of actual independence from America/West despite it's false declaration of "INDEPENDENCE" from Spain and the whole fakery of their supposed bravery. I am sorry to tell you dude, I have no bleeping respect for that country, none, whatsoever. If what the PH is doing is in your mind a strategy then by all means, in the word of OBAMA to then candidate Gov. Romney during their debate: "PLEASE PROCEED GOVERNOR."

 

Wrought

Junior Member
Registered Member
That is not "A STRATEGY" it's a foolish endeavor of a desperate country that's in a dire desperate situation. A country ill prepared to face the coming of A.I. a country that's increasing it's extreme poverty, crimes, and political infighting.

If the PH was a rational country, lead by rational and pragmatic "leaders" they would not try to lead themselves and their country down to the road of primrose path. What's the urgency and suddenness of the PH action against it's dispute with China? What has changed on the ground in terms of physical infrastructure, patrols, and military presence from China in the region? Has it lessened or grown in frequency, size, and actions become more aggressive? Is there an actual existential threat emanating from China and it's supposed maligned activities in the region that hastened the dramatic aggressive and desperate tone and actions of the PH towards China?

The flare up and disputes on those waters are nothing new as it's been a consistent patterns between all claimants for many decades. The building of the artificial islands was not started by China - it was started by Vietnam if am not mistaken. But, due to China's heft, wealth, diplomatic, and military power it elected to build it's own islands to ensure and maximize its own claims against others. That's a rational action taken by a rationale actor and country.

It's only until the pivot to Asia as committed by then Pres. Obama that the PH started to really assert it's claims and pushed their luck against China. It was during the time of the now deceased PH former Pres. Noynoy Aquino Jr. that the dispute were internationalize at the behest and guidance from its saint patron and master, the U.S. Hence, the subject was then taken to UNCLOS/ITLOS that subsequently ruled in the PH favor. This issue became muted or mooted due to the UNEXPECTED rise AND ELECTION OF DUTERTE which place this supposed existential PH issue at the back burner of domestic priority and importance. Showing the inanity, not to mention THE ARROGANCE OF PHILIPPINE/FILIPINO ELITES/AMERICAN COMPRADORS AND YES, THEIR BLEEPING STUPIDITY that the majority of their people thought it was DRUGS, CRIME, CORRUPTION, POVERTY, JOB OPPORTUNITY were the PRESSING CONCERNS AND NEED of the country. The relationship between China and the PH improved and there were various discussion about resource sharing on those disputed islands. But Duterte could not get anywhere since he was essentially a caretaker president once his 1 and only term passed the 4 year mark. He was simply going to be waited out by the ENTRENCHED WESTERN/AMERICAN COMPROMISED bureaucrats, POLITICIANS most of which have U.S. residency, U.S. passport holders, owned businesses in America, studied in America etc...Duterte provided the PH a once in a generational escape pod from the clutches of America, his country's elite apparatchik chose to disregard his insights as COWARDLY...LOL...


The PH have yet to exercise a degree of actual independence from America/West despite it's false declaration of "INDEPENDENCE" from Spain and the whole fakery of their supposed bravery. I am sorry to tell you dude, I have no bleeping respect for that country, none, whatsoever. If what the PH is doing is in your mind a strategy then by all means, in the word of OBAMA to then candidate Gov. Romney during their debate: "PLEASE PROCEED GOVERNOR."


The urgency and suddenness is because the Sierra Madre is dangerously close to collapse. The Chinese strategy of patience worked, after 20 years of waiting.

Nobody knows how long the Sierra Madre has left before it succumbs to the elements, but Powell says there are concerns its collapse could come within months, not years. “We have to be ready for the idea it could start tomorrow.”
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

So the Philippines, who desperately wants to keep their outpost, attempted to repair it, which of course China does not allow.

"There has never been a problem with the delivery of humanitarian supplies because there is a special arrangement for it, and the problem arose when the Philippines transported large-scale building materials," Huang said at the 9th Manila Forum in Quezon City Tuesday.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

That is what changed on the ground. That is the existential threat to the Philippines presence on the shoal. That is why they are acting out now. Is it desperate? Well yes, because they are almost out of time. Is it foolish? Well no, because the alternative is just to lose completely.
 
Last edited:

FairAndUnbiased

Brigadier
Registered Member
The urgency and suddenness is because the Sierra Madre is dangerously close to collapse. The Chinese strategy of patience worked, after 20 years of waiting.


Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

So the Philippines, who desperately wants to keep their outpost, attempted to repair it, which of course China does not allow.


Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

That is what changed on the ground. That is the existential threat to the Philippines presence on the shoal. That is why they are acting out now. Is it desperate? Well yes, because they are almost out of time. Is it foolish? Well no, because the alternative is just to lose completely.
if they lose, they could get Chinese investment. So there was indeed a choice:

1. get deeply humiliated and bullied while struggling to merely keep the status quo of a token presence on an island of 0 economic value.

2. get billions in Chinese investment to escape the low income trap. not middle income trap, low income trap. and the cost is just to lose a little face.
 

Wrought

Junior Member
Registered Member
if they lose, they could get Chinese investment. So there was indeed a choice:

1. get deeply humiliated and bullied while struggling to merely keep the status quo of a token presence on an island of 0 economic value.

2. get billions in Chinese investment to escape the low income trap. not middle income trap, low income trap. and the cost is just to lose a little face.

Sovereign territory being worth far more than financial incentives is hardly new or unique to the Philippines. Doesn't necessarily make it a good idea in this case, but the precedent is there. People are willing to die for worthless rocks.

I think the issue here is we assume Philippine leaders make decisions based on the best interest of their country and not on their own interests, which is questionable at best.

While that's true, then you quickly run into the problem of trying to guess what might be going on inside somebody's head. When there's a rational explanation instead, I prefer to take it.
 
Last edited:

Bellum_Romanum

Brigadier
Registered Member
Filipinos aren't known throughout it's history as "strategic thinkers" but rather emotional followers and actors doing the bidding of whichever greater power is in control of their country. First it was the Spanish, then the Americans that pretty much continued to this very day.

A lot of the fake bravado Filipinos exhibit online are just delusional assumptions that America and the world will come and rescue their hapless country from a potential fight with the Red Dragon.
Exhibit A: Thai lady boys vs 20 Filipino lady boys. The alleged story is that 20 Filipino Lady boys decided to bully some Thai lady boys in THAILAND!! Result? The Filipinos got beaten up so badly and one of them was beaten pretty severely. And now, the Filipinos are acting all indignant and making proclamation that they will stop visiting Thailand as if the PH is a major country that contributes a major source of tourism money.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

And we expect the PH encounter with China to be worst that what those Fil-lady boys received.
 
Top