China's SCS Strategy Thread

[ansy1968]

@ansy1968 what do you make of this interview conducted by the Philippines Secdef Teodoro and the contentions he asserted that the PH actions and conduct within its own EEZ is in line with international law, norms and customs and that it's China’s double speak and bullying tactics that bellies its actual intent of owning the whole of the SCS and is not at all interested with their so-called "win-win" proposal.

Furthermore, no other countries have publicly condemned or even criticize the Philippines of its conduct as well as its handling in the WPS vs China with the lone exception of China.

It seems the PH is honkering down and is agitated for some sort of conflict with China. It also seems to perceive itself of having iron clad allies that not only will lend diplomatic and economic cover, but perhaps military means as well in the event of an armed eventuality.
What do you make of his interview? Why is the Philippines putting so much emphasis on this issue that should and must be negotiated diplomatically without Western involvement for obvious reasons. This situation is bleeding the PH in treasury it does not have and will not be able to sustain operationally at its current tempo due to costs and logistical issues. What's the upside in all of this drama other than for domestic shoring up of support to the current Marcos regime?

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1738535718518137031

Because he was made a fool and he won't back down as his boss had given him free rein as agreed with the US. they are looking at the 2025 ELECTION and He need to show his credentials as the main implementor of the new EDCA.

All this noises are part of Marcos campaign to show that he is doing something and he think escalating the SCS issue will give him that boost. He didn't expect the Chinese reaction and was taken aback on how aggressive the respond is, the Chinese had made themselves clear, you played with FIRE, you'll get burn and that burn will leave a scar so deep that you wish you wasn't born.... Lol

And there is an another angle, the weak US respond and lack of support. Marcos had to travel to Japan to ask the Japanese to relay their concern to the US, that's how the US view us as dispensable, they wouldn't talk to us as their priority is in the Middle East. The promise aid and investment hadn't arrive even from Japan, so to save face Marcos and the Japanese had issued a joint statement about supporting each other against the Chinese aggression with what?

2024 is an interesting year for China, there will election in the US. Taiwan and Ukraine. As such the geopolitical situation in Asia will be stable as Brandon is grappling with multiple crisis, having the Philippines making a scene is definitely a NO NO, that's why nobody is answering the phone from the other side, the Chinese knew this so they up the ante by Making an example out of them.

 

[Temstar]

This is curious:

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Carl Vinson is deployed in SCS, currently somewhere near Singapore.

 

[LawLeadsToPeace]

This is curious:

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Carl Vinson is deployed in SCS, currently somewhere near Singapore.

I saw a story floating around on the Chinese web about the Chinese and US (specifically the Carl Vinson CSG) engaging in EW with the former being the winner. Later, that commander in that article got relieved of duty and he was the commander of an EW squadron interestingly enough. Given your expertise, do you know who the source of that story is?

 

[luosifen]

Makes no sense why the PLA or USN would engage in EW during peacetime and give away operational secrets that are best saved for the real thing.

 

[tphuang]

Makes no sense why the PLA or USN would engage in EW during peacetime and give away operational secrets that are best saved for the real thing.

hmm, EW happens all the time during peace time.

 

[Temstar]

I saw a story floating around on the Chinese web about the Chinese and US (specifically the Carl Vinson CSG) engaging in EW with the former being the winner. Later, that commander in that article got relieved of duty and he was the commander of an EW squadron interestingly enough. Given your expertise, do you know who the source of that story is?

I think it's baseless rumour unless we see some more supporting evidence. Most likely people saw the news about the EW commander getting fired and immediately went wild with their imagination. Recall that other wild rumour about a USN SSN getting trapped and cournered by PLAN in Bohai.

 

[Bellum_Romanum]

I saw a story floating around on the Chinese web about the Chinese and US (specifically the Carl Vinson CSG) engaging in EW with the former being the winner. Later, that commander in that article got relieved of duty and he was the commander of an EW squadron interestingly enough. Given your expertise, do you know who the source of that story is?

Jai Hind version of a story from some of the ardent Chinese nationalists this time. But, if there's any merit to such story (Prowler E.W. of U.S.N.) that would put a serious scare/dent to the entire Indo-Pacific alliance confidence of taking China in the South China Sea and the potential conflict for Taiwan.

 

[Wrought]

Jai Hind version of a story from some of the ardent Chinese nationalists this time. But, if there's any merit to such story (Prowler E.W. of U.S.N.) that would put a serious scare/dent to the entire Indo-Pacific alliance confidence of taking China in the South China Sea and the potential conflict for Taiwan.

This narrative doesn't pass the smell test. Why would a EW officer be relieved if his equipment is not good enough? That's not something he can control, it's the responsibility of his government to provide him with tools which can do the job. Maybe you could make up something about convenient scapegoats or gross incompetence or whatever, but it's all unfounded speculation.

The simpler and more likely explanation is that the officer in question did something embarrassing during port leave in Singapore, as has happened to others in the past.

 

[zbb]

I think it's baseless rumour unless we see some more supporting evidence. Most likely people saw the news about the EW commander getting fired and immediately went wild with their imagination.

Stories about EW battle between US and China came out as early as morning of 12/21 in China (still 12/20 in the US).

The earliest report about Carl Vinson EW commander being fired that I found is dated 12/23 in the US, nearly 3 days after the EW contest stories.

The article below claims weather radar in Xiamen went crazy on 12/12 due to the EW contest between China and US.

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[ACuriousPLAFan]

Isn't the electromagnetic arm-wrestling contests between the Chinese and the US in the 1IC already an almost-daily occurence by now?

I'm surprised if that's not the case.