Tbf in previous instances of this happening the rising power and hegemon couldn't press a button to annihilate each other within 30 minutes.
China's SCS Strategy Thread
- Thread starter lilzz
- Start date
See, predictable
In "Destined For War", Graham Allison looked at 16 cases of recent examples of rising powers and the existing hegemon.
Of these, only 4 didn't involve a war.
So the track record is not great, but a peaceful enough power transition is possible.
The Chinese philosophy is always to downplay its capabilities for a surprise factor, and that's an example of what's happening here. They are happy with the US being so 10-20 years late in their understanding of Chinese power and their own power. If the US realizes that it's in deep shit, then they might start changing something, but if they are not aware of their own objective comprehensive capabilities, they are going to change nothing and remain stupid until the end and get defeated way easier.
It doesn't matter what anti-China hawks think, it is even great that American elites are so objectively delusional, under the dark. China only needs to be strong enough to defeat them 100km from its shores with 90-95% certainty in reality practically, which will happen in a few years. That's when they have a lower risk and damage in reclaiming Taiwan than staying silent and accepting provocations (affecting them domestically and internationally politically). We have both directions now, China is stronger every year, and US provocations are also more extreme every year. So, the most optimal choice is slowly leading towards taking action nowadays.
about the Philippines needing a "paradigm shift" because its current efforts are unsuccessful.
As I have said before, empty words in the form of statements or condemnations do not alter the reality on the ground (or the water, as it were). The Philippines does not have the material strength to contest Chinese efforts directly, so it is trying to gain leverage by other means like diplomacy. But nobody else is stepping up to send their own ships into harm's way. Manila is well aware that escalation is not in their interests.
Therefore, CCG and so forth should continue applying pressure without making any drastic moves. The current approach is working, and whatever the Philippines tries will not alter the material reality (without major escalation, which they are avoiding). The goal should be to convince the Philippines that opposing Chinese interests is not a successful paradigm.
As I have said before, empty words in the form of statements or condemnations do not alter the reality on the ground (or the water, as it were). The Philippines does not have the material strength to contest Chinese efforts directly, so it is trying to gain leverage by other means like diplomacy. But nobody else is stepping up to send their own ships into harm's way. Manila is well aware that escalation is not in their interests.
Therefore, CCG and so forth should continue applying pressure without making any drastic moves. The current approach is working, and whatever the Philippines tries will not alter the material reality (without major escalation, which they are avoiding). The goal should be to convince the Philippines that opposing Chinese interests is not a successful paradigm.
All talks no action, Japan is having trouble with Chinese Coast Guard in the Diaoyu Island, what support can they provide?
By the look of things, Philippine ambassador to the US, Romualdez a cousin of Marcos had a tete a tete with a senior Brandon official (most likely Sullivan) Not to escalate. You can see the result with Carpio having to clarify and backtrack some of the Philippines position rather than outright bravado.
Now China had made its intention clear, work with us or we can make life difficult for you. And to the American don't bluff cause we are not a paper tiger.
Massacre of Manilla.