China's SCS Strategy Thread

[Wrought]

You don’t win the throne by constantly shrinking back from challenge. Sure, time is on China’s side, but there will never be a perfect time for war against a foe as powerful as America, and opportunity does not care about your perfect grand plans.

China does not care about petty emotions, and will not fight needlessly or recklessly, but they are not afraid of a fight either, and know the value of initiative and aggression where necessary.

Sadly war with America is inevitable. That is the only reasonable conclusion one can draw dispassionately and logically. China has recognised and accepted that fact long ago, much earlier than I had previously thought. It is now ready for war, and so will seize the right opportunity if it is presented.

Thus the main questions now are when the war will be, and how server and long the war will be.

It will be height of naivety to look at past Chinese behaviours and draw a simply regression line into the future to try to predict Chinese actions and choices after such a monumental paradigm shift.

Make no mistake, China is actively testing and probing America for weakness, and they will strike without hesitation and with unparalleled aggressive and severity should they feel the moment is right, and they will do so by making America fire the first shot.

America is at a moment of peak strategic overreach and weakness, so of course China will probe and test them and seek to stretch them further. It will do so with measured salami slicing against the Philippines since they actively volunteered for slicing. Either America leaves the Philippines flapping and thus undermine its security guarantees further, or if it seeks to protect its poodle, it will need to fight China directly where defeat is guaranteed. If America offers up such a gift, China will snap it up and take America’s arm off with it, literally, in a strategic sense.

All of that starts with small, measured escalation, not meekly backing down. Those are the old rules of a long abandoned and forgotten game.

The US is the one shrinking back here. Look at the verbal contortions to avoid calling it an "armed attack."

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1734369297105834033

And this is right after reaffirming the US treaty commitment to the Philippines in the event of an armed attack. Do you think the Philippines is blind or deaf? Or any of their neighbors? Everyone in SEA can see the US hanging the Philippines out to dry. CCG has a free pass to do everything except open fire, and the US will do nothing except grumble. That leaves plenty of options to make life miserable for Filipino sailors. Chinese objectives are being achieved as we speak.

I don't disagree that opportunistic escalation has its place, but not now. Now is the time to keep a steady course on the winning approach.

 

[Overbom]

The US is the one shrinking back here. Look at the verbal contortions to avoid calling it an "armed attack."

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1734369297105834033

This reads to me that even if someone dies, US wouldn't go as far as to say as it was an "armed attack".

More like a green light for China to escalate if it wants to lol

 

[tamsen_ikard]

The US is the one shrinking back here. Look at the verbal contortions to avoid calling it an "armed attack."

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1734369297105834033

And this is right after reaffirming the US treaty commitment to the Philippines in the event of an armed attack. Do you think the Philippines is blind or deaf? Or any of their neighbors? Everyone in SEA can see the US hanging the Philippines out to dry. CCG has a free pass to do everything except open fire, and the US will do nothing except grumble. That leaves plenty of options to make life miserable for Filipino sailors. Chinese objectives are being achieved as we speak.

I don't disagree that opportunistic escalation has its place, but not now. Now is the time to keep a steady course on the winning approach.

Depends on the power balance between China and the US. If China's GDP was 3 times bigger than US and its navy and air force 3 times US size and modern, do you think US would dare to fight China just caused they fired on Phillipines ships and even sunk 1 or 2?

Nope

If China is powerful, even the most outragous actions will get nothing but verbal condemnation.

 

[Michaelsinodef]

Depends on the power balance between China and the US. If China's GDP was 3 times bigger than US and its navy and air force 3 times US size and modern, do you think US would dare to fight China just caused they fired on Phillipines ships and even sunk 1 or 2?

Nope

If China is powerful, even the most outragous actions will get nothing but verbal condemnation.

It's already the case though (well, military power in SCS), like they are currently only doing verbal condemnations, and that's basically it lol.

 

[tamsen_ikard]

It's already the case though (well, military power in SCS), like they are currently only doing verbal condemnations, and that's basically it lol.

Not yet, Most US anti-China hawks in GOP and think tanks want more and more escalation. They want war now if they could, cause they think US still can win. They think if they don't fight now, they will no longer be able to win in the future.

Same with the likes of Phillipines and Taiwan. They want to escalate now and make gains with the hope that US backing will be enough to scare China into acceptance.

China needs to be strong enough so that even the most anti-China hawks start to think its ludicrous to fight China in the first island Chain.

China has achieved that level of deterrence on land. Not even the most anti-China hawks think US should invade China for example.

But US still thinks its invincible in the Air and Sea domain. That thinking needs to be changed with hard power gains by PLA.

 

[coolgod]

Not yet, Most US anti-China hawks in GOP and think tanks want more and more escalation. They want war now if they could, cause they think US still can win. They think if they don't fight now, they will no longer be able to win in the future.

AIPAC has entered the chat. GOP isn't going to escalate shit with China in the SCS right now.

 

[AndrewS]

Sadly war with America is inevitable. That is the only reasonable conclusion one can draw dispassionately and logically. China has recognised and accepted that fact long ago, much earlier than I had previously thought. It is now ready for war, and so will seize the right opportunity if it is presented.

I don't see war with America as being inevitable.

As per the CBO, the USA is on track to have far worse economic imbalances in the future, for example in deficit spending and therefore federal debt levels. And the US relies on foreigners to fund this because the US runs a huge trade deficit.

So at some point, foreigners will stampede for the exit as the US economic model becomes completely unsustainable.
In the absence of a US-China war, my gut tells me we're looking at 15-20 years for this to happen

In the aftermath of that shock and prolonged economic decline, we should see the US retreat from the Western Pacific

 

[Overbom]

I don't see war with America as being inevitable.

As per the CBO, the USA is on track to have far worse economic imbalances in the future, for example in deficit spending and therefore federal debt levels. And the US relies on foreigners to fund this because the US runs a huge trade deficit.

So at some point, foreigners will stampede for the exit as the US economic model becomes completely unsustainable.
In the absence of a US-China war, my gut tells me we're looking at 15-20 years for this to happen

In the aftermath of that shock and prolonged economic decline, we should see the US retreat from the Western Pacific

A peaceful transition of power from the declining hegemon to a rising power.

Yea, ok..
The only "peaceful" transition in world's history was the UK->US, and that only happened after WW2

 

[Temstar]

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

This is separate from the military resupply runs to that beached ship. This is some civilian group doing it. They hired a pretty big ship but when the captain saw the 052D in the distance he promptly turned the ship around.

 

[ansy1968]

Not yet, Most US anti-China hawks in GOP and think tanks want more and more escalation. They want war now if they could, cause they think US still can win. They think if they don't fight now, they will no longer be able to win in the future.

Same with the likes of Phillipines and Taiwan. They want to escalate now and make gains with the hope that US backing will be enough to scare China into acceptance.

China needs to be strong enough so that even the most anti-China hawks start to think its ludicrous to fight China in the first island Chain.

China has achieved that level of deterrence on land. Not even the most anti-China hawks think US should invade China for example.

But US still thinks its invincible in the Air and Sea domain. That thinking needs to be changed with hard power gains by PLA.

Sorry bro but your assumption is wrong, SCS is a Chinese pond and the American won't dare seek conflict were they are in a disadvantage, what concern them are the second island chain and its vassals in East Asia. SK, Taiwan, Japan and even the Vietnamese are part of THE SINIC WORLD, whatever disagreement, real or manufactured they're able to settled their difference peacefully cause they're are one big family. That's what the American feared the most, a hard working, intelligent and technologically advance Sinosphere that will overwhelm and challenge the Collective West.

And the US is waging war against her vassals, they are using the China threat and a possibility of war to tighten leash, THE FEAR of losing power over its subjugated subject is the main issue as highlighted from my previous post.

"It is not power that corrupts but fear. Fear of losing power corrupts those who wield it and fear of the scourge of power corrupt's those who are subject to it"?