China's SCS Strategy Thread

Micron

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ansy1968

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The Russians CG would have just simply firing on them with live rounds like they did with the Japanese intruders.
These people are playing with fire and most fortunately that the Chinese CG are restrained.
But such restraints have a limit and I hope nobody will be killed in the process.
The Philippines Coast Guard had also done the same, just ask the Taiwanese fisherman . What makes it difference this time around is the Chinese overwhelming presence. We had copied the Western mentality of bullying, but when the tables are turn, we cry like children.
 

tamsen_ikard

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The Russians CG would have just simply firing on them with live rounds like they did with the Japanese intruders.
These people are playing with fire and most fortunately that the Chinese CG are restrained.
But such restraints have a limit and I hope nobody will be killed in the process.

The day China fires on Phillipines or Taiwan for provocations like this is the day China truly becomes a mature superpower. Right now its just hiding and biding with its current soft approach.
 

ansy1968

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The day China fires on Phillipines or Taiwan for provocations like this is the day China truly becomes a mature superpower. Right now its just hiding and biding with its current soft approach.
You mean like this

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A Philippine coastguard is seen laughing while trying to fire a rifle at a fleeing Taiwanese fishing boat, in a video of the incident ..


Why would the Chinese stood at their level? You tell me is the current Chinese strategy a matured approach or not?

A quote that justify the Chinese approached:

"It is not power that corrupts but fear. Fear of losing power corrupts those who wield it and fear of the scourge of power corrupt's those who are subject to it"?
 
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ansy1968

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State Department protesting the latest flair up.
Not USN, USAF or even US Coast Guard, State Department. So I would think some time later once this has all died down USN is going to send a ship through on FONOP to show they're doing stuff?
Not the US, but the US lackeys like the Aussies and the Canadians and this time "they're gotta wear shades"

Today is #NationalSunglassesDay! Make... - Prevent Blindness | Facebook
 

Wrought

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What makes you think things won’t be entirely within China’s control if it wants to bitchslap the Philippines a little in the SCS? The Philippines is so overmatched that live fire training exercises would be more taxing for the PLAN.

Not that it would get remotely that far, just the Chinese coast guard could easily erase the entire Philippines navy just by accidentally-on-purpose running them all over. Which is how I see the next step up on the escalation ladder going. If China really wanted to send a message, one of their ships will simply ram and sink the Philippines supply ship. There will be Chinese coast guard and PLAN warships close by to make sure the other Philippines ships don’t get any stupid ideas. If the Philippines don’t take the hint, the Chinese can easily normalise such rammings until the Philippines gets the message or runs out of ships.

Needless to say, they will loose their junker outpost when it runs out of supplies. The Chinese will make daily offers to take the garrison home. They can take the Chinese up on the offer, or the Chinese can send their bodies back when nature does its thing.

Holding escalation dominance means that China can act with effective impunity at the low end of the ladder. Which is exactly what is happening now. But escalating unilaterally into armed conflict means all sorts of unwanted attention and intervention and potentially a very large war, none of which is in Chinese interests. Moving slowly ensures all of those risks are minimized. Pride is a waste, and not worth spending money or lives. All of the current strength you are so proud of was built on patience.

Wars are bloody and expensive. Only a fool fights a war when he can win without fighting.
 
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tphuang

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again, nobody in america cares about this. China can do what it does right now without any repercussion. The world is focused on Gaza right now and whatever remains of Russia/Ukraine operation. Philippines picked basically the worst time to throw a fit.

The question is whether or not China will actually do something economically if Philippines escalate this further like kicking out ambassador or something like that.
 

plawolf

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Holding escalation dominance means that China can act with effective impunity at the low end of the ladder. Which is exactly what is happening now. But escalating unilaterally into armed conflict means all sorts of unwanted attention and intervention and potentially a very large war, none of which is in Chinese interests. Moving slowly ensures all of those risks are minimized. Pride is a waste, and not worth spending money or lives. All of the current strength you are so proud of was built on patience.

Wars are bloody and expensive. Only a fool fights a war when he can win without fighting.

You don’t win the throne by constantly shrinking back from challenge. Sure, time is on China’s side, but there will never be a perfect time for war against a foe as powerful as America, and opportunity does not care about your perfect grand plans.

China does not care about petty emotions, and will not fight needlessly or recklessly, but they are not afraid of a fight either, and know the value of initiative and aggression where necessary.

Sadly war with America is inevitable. That is the only reasonable conclusion one can draw dispassionately and logically. China has recognised and accepted that fact long ago, much earlier than I had previously thought. It is now ready for war, and so will seize the right opportunity if it is presented.

Thus the main questions now are when the war will be, and how server and long the war will be.

It will be height of naivety to look at past Chinese behaviours and draw a simply regression line into the future to try to predict Chinese actions and choices after such a monumental paradigm shift.

Make no mistake, China is actively testing and probing America for weakness, and they will strike without hesitation and with unparalleled aggressive and severity should they feel the moment is right, and they will do so by making America fire the first shot.

America is at a moment of peak strategic overreach and weakness, so of course China will probe and test them and seek to stretch them further. It will do so with measured salami slicing against the Philippines since they actively volunteered for slicing. Either America leaves the Philippines flapping and thus undermine its security guarantees further, or if it seeks to protect its poodle, it will need to fight China directly where defeat is guaranteed. If America offers up such a gift, China will snap it up and take America’s arm off with it, literally, in a strategic sense.

All of that starts with small, measured escalation, not meekly backing down. Those are the old rules of a long abandoned and forgotten game.
 
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