Holding escalation dominance means that China can act with effective impunity at the low end of the ladder. Which is exactly what is happening now. But escalating unilaterally into armed conflict means all sorts of unwanted attention and intervention and potentially a very large war, none of which is in Chinese interests. Moving slowly ensures all of those risks are minimized. Pride is a waste, and not worth spending money or lives. All of the current strength you are so proud of was built on patience.
Wars are bloody and expensive. Only a fool fights a war when he can win without fighting.
You don’t win the throne by constantly shrinking back from challenge. Sure, time is on China’s side, but there will never be a perfect time for war against a foe as powerful as America, and opportunity does not care about your perfect grand plans.
China does not care about petty emotions, and will not fight needlessly or recklessly, but they are not afraid of a fight either, and know the value of initiative and aggression where necessary.
Sadly war with America is inevitable. That is the only reasonable conclusion one can draw dispassionately and logically. China has recognised and accepted that fact long ago, much earlier than I had previously thought. It is now ready for war, and so will seize the right opportunity if it is presented.
Thus the main questions now are when the war will be, and how server and long the war will be.
It will be height of naivety to look at past Chinese behaviours and draw a simply regression line into the future to try to predict Chinese actions and choices after such a monumental paradigm shift.
Make no mistake, China is actively testing and probing America for weakness, and they will strike without hesitation and with unparalleled aggressive and severity should they feel the moment is right, and they will do so by making America fire the first shot.
America is at a moment of peak strategic overreach and weakness, so of course China will probe and test them and seek to stretch them further. It will do so with measured salami slicing against the Philippines since they actively volunteered for slicing. Either America leaves the Philippines flapping and thus undermine its security guarantees further, or if it seeks to protect its poodle, it will need to fight China directly where defeat is guaranteed. If America offers up such a gift, China will snap it up and take America’s arm off with it, literally, in a strategic sense.
All of that starts with small, measured escalation, not meekly backing down. Those are the old rules of a long abandoned and forgotten game.