China's SCS Strategy Thread

coolgod

Colonel
Registered Member
Whats next on the escalation ladder? Board and detain the ship? Ram a ship until it sinks?


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Xi Jinping tells coastguard to enforce law, ‘resolutely defend’ territorial sovereignty, while on East China Sea visit​

  • Chinese president makes remarks in visit to command office for East China Sea, says they must crack down on criminal activities and safeguard maritime economy
  • This comes after Chinese coastguard had several run-ins in South China Sea with neighbouring countries
President
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has called on the coastguard to enforce China’s laws and “resolutely defend” its territorial sovereignty and maritime rights.
Xi made the remarks when he visited the coastguard’s command office for the
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in Shanghai on Wednesday.
No more messing around, Xi is bringing out the big stick since the Philippines won't sign China's SCS code of conduct.
 

Wrought

Junior Member
Registered Member
There is no need to escalate anything. The current strategy is working already. Placing the burden of escalation on the Philippines is the correct approach. Continued and persistent pressure will force Manila into a no-win position of either ceding the outpost or committing resources they can't afford. So far they are trying to use media attention, diplomatic statements, etc, to gain leverage for "free" but none of that changes the facts on the ground (or water, as it were). Everyone from the US on down is reluctant to actually commit finite manpower and material to such a low-tech and low-priority pissing contest. Keeping things simmering instead of boiling aligns very well with the Chinese strengths of mass and proximity. Nobody is firing missiles, and that's a good thing. Do you think the US is eager to send irreplaceable naval assets worth billions to play bumper boats?

Obviously CCG and PLAN has plenty of escalation room left, but it should only be deployed when necessary.
 
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coolgod

Colonel
Registered Member
There is no need to escalate anything. The current strategy is working already. Placing the burden of escalation on the Philippines is the correct approach. Continued and persistent pressure will force Manila into a no-win position of either ceding the outpost or committing resources they can't afford. So far they are trying to use media attention, diplomatic statements, etc, to gain leverage for "free" but none of that changes the facts on the ground (or water, as it were). Everyone from the US on down is reluctant to actually commit finite manpower and material to such a low-tech and low-priority pissing contest. Keeping things simmering instead of boiling aligns very well with the Chinese strengths of mass and proximity. Nobody is firing missiles, and that's a good thing. Do you think the US is eager to send irreplaceable naval assets worth billions to play bumper boats?

Obviously CCG and PLAN has plenty of escalation room left, but it should only be deployed when necessary.
Why is it not the right time to escalate for China right now? The US is overstretched and can't dedicate the effort to deal with China in the SCS. Humiliating the Philippines and the US by extension sends an important message to the rest of South East Asia and Oceania. China has changed, so must its foreign policy.
 

Wrought

Junior Member
Registered Member
Why is it not the right time to escalate for China right now? The US is overstretched and can't dedicate the effort to deal with China in the SCS. Humiliating the Philippines and the US by extension sends an important message to the rest of South East Asia and Oceania. China has changed, so must its foreign policy.

Because escalation is risky. Things can get out of control. It's much easier to make a mess than clean it up, just look at the Middle East right now. Reality is not a videogame, you don't get any second chances. And for what? A worthless shoal? It is not strategically significant. It is not a high-value target. It is not worth risking anything for, let alone everything.

No, the patient approach is the correct way because keeping things slow and steady allows everyone plenty of time to think instead of getting into a foolish action-reaction spiral. And what do you imagine they're thinking right now in Manila? Be realistic here, nobody likes being pushed around. They are angry. They are upset. They are looking for options. The current situation is not working for them, so they need something else. Marcos thought moving closer to the US might give the Philippines leverage with China. It hasn't. The US already got what it wants (basing for a high-tech, high-intensity conflict), and their capabilities are not suited for a low-tech low-intensity one. Washington doesn't much care about some worthless shoal, and they are right, because it's worthless. Only the Philippines cares, because it is politically significant to them. Which gives China a pain point through which to exert political pressure. Which is what you are seeing right now.

So where does that leave you as the Philippines? Stuck between a rock and a hard place. There's a 052D at Mischief right now, doing nothing. Just waiting.


If you are the Philippines then you see it, and you know that escalation is not going to help you here. Escalate all the way up to a US battlegroup and the only thing you'll get is your own home destroyed. That's what it means to be a pawn of great powers. That's a no-win position. You, and everyone else in the neighborhood, will be thinking how much that sucks. And maybe, if you are convinced that being a pawn is not going to work out for you, that posturing about getting involved in a future high-intensity war is not actually going to help you out of the current low-intensity mess you're dealing with (and that's what really matters politically, because that's what is really happening here and now), then you won't do it. You'll sit on the sidelines and refuse to get involved. And if Beijing can slowly convince everyone of that, over the course of many years of low-intensity undermining the foundations of US force projection capability, then it will achieve high-intensity victory without ever firing a shot.
 
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coolgod

Colonel
Registered Member
Because escalation is risky. Things can get out of control. It's much easier to make a mess than clean it up, just look at the Middle East right now. Reality is not a videogame, you don't get any second chances. And for what? A worthless shoal? It is not strategically significant. It is not a high-value target. It is not worth risking anything for, let alone everything.

No, the patient approach is the correct way because keeping things slow and steady allows everyone plenty of time to think instead of getting into a foolish action-reaction spiral. And what do you imagine they're thinking right now in Manila? Be realistic here, nobody likes being pushed around. They are angry. They are upset. They are looking for options. The current situation is not working for them, so they need something else. Marcos thought moving closer to the US might give the Philippines leverage with China. It hasn't. The US already got what it wants (basing for a high-tech, high-intensity conflict), and their capabilities are not suited for a low-tech low-intensity one. Washington doesn't much care about some worthless shoal, and they are right, because it's worthless. Only the Philippines cares, because it is politically significant to them. Which gives China a pain point through which to exert political pressure. Which is what you are seeing right now.

So where does that leave you as the Philippines? Stuck between a rock and a hard place. There's a 052D at Mischief right now, doing nothing. Just waiting.


If you are the Philippines then you see it, and you know that escalation is not going to help you here. Escalate all the way up to a US battlegroup and the only thing you'll get is your own home destroyed. That's what it means to be a pawn of great powers. That's a no-win position. You, and everyone else in the neighborhood, will be thinking how much that sucks. And maybe, if you are convinced that being a pawn is not going to work out for you, that posturing about getting involved in a future high-intensity war is not actually going to help you out of the current low-intensity mess you're dealing with (and that's what really matters politically, because that's what is really happening here and now), then you won't do it. You'll sit on the sidelines and refuse to get involved. And if Beijing can slowly convince everyone of that, over the course of many years of low-intensity undermining the foundations of US force projection capability, then it will achieve high-intensity victory without ever firing a shot.
Not sure why you keep focusing on Manila, franking speaking nobody cares about them. China doesn't, the US doesn't and neither does the rest of South East Asia. You don't think China is foolish enough to think that Marcos and his generals actually make the big decisions to escalate with China right?

The goal of China going on the offensive in the SCS today is to destroy the remaining US credibility in the region, think 2016 round two. Xi is visiting Hanoi next week to pacify the Viets for the next few years. With the Viets temporarily sitting out of the major SCS disputes, China will make an example out of the Philippines.

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Xi to visit Vietnam for first time in 6 years as China, US compete for influence in Southeast Asian nation​

  • Chinese president and Vietnamese leaders will discuss upgrading bilateral relations, and talks will also highlight maritime issues
  • Despite growing trade ties, Beijing and Hanoi have unresolved disputes in the South China Sea
 

ansy1968

Brigadier
Registered Member
Why is it not the right time to escalate for China right now? The US is overstretched and can't dedicate the effort to deal with China in the SCS. Humiliating the Philippines and the US by extension sends an important message to the rest of South East Asia and Oceania. China has changed, so must its foreign policy.
Bro, had to agree with you, the American are blocked in and vulnerable . Just look at what China is doing, they're setting the stage that will really embarrass the US cause they know they are in a pickle. Xi will be visiting Vietnam, he will not go unless the Vietnamese had promised to behave in the SCS, the tough talk against Japan and their unrelented support for Palestinian, the US had been isolated, now is the perfect time to take the American bluff and see who blinked first.
 

Wrought

Junior Member
Registered Member
Not sure why you keep focusing on Manila, franking speaking nobody cares about them. China doesn't, the US doesn't and neither does the rest of South East Asia. You don't think China is foolish enough to think that Marcos and his generals actually make the big decisions to escalate with China right?

The goal of China going on the offensive in the SCS today is to destroy the remaining US credibility in the region, think 2016 round two. Xi is visiting Hanoi next week to pacify the Viets for the next few years. With the Viets temporarily sitting out of the major SCS disputes, China will make an example out of the Philippines.

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Xi to visit Vietnam for first time in 6 years as China, US compete for influence in Southeast Asian nation​

  • Chinese president and Vietnamese leaders will discuss upgrading bilateral relations, and talks will also highlight maritime issues
  • Despite growing trade ties, Beijing and Hanoi have unresolved disputes in the South China Sea

I am focusing on Manila because that is the context of the events happening right now. These are Filipino ships.

And the Philippines matter because they are the only ones in SEA embracing the US. Vietnam is not. Vietnam is wiser than the Philippines. So what China is doing now is demonstrating that embracing the US is not in your best interest if you are a country in SEA. Because it will not solve your problems. But doing that quickly is risky, and can easily get out of control. So it is happening slowly, with plenty of time for everyone in SEA to think very carefully about what path is in their best interests going forward.
 

coolgod

Colonel
Registered Member
But doing that quickly is risky, and can easily get out of control. So it is happening slowly, with plenty of time for everyone in SEA to think very carefully about what path is in their best interests going forward.
Guess who is very scared of things getting out of control and keep asking for guardrails?


Chinese "fisherman" gives a warning up close.
 
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