China's SCS Strategy Thread

[tidalwave]

Beauty of the ruling is so one sided. It doesn't sugar coat anything, strictly anti china. It doesn't even attempt or masking to be somewhat fair at all. The ruling words are exactly from the US lawyer for the Philippines.
A few normally anti china media writers shed a few crocodile tears and said everybody should tone down and step back as not humiliate China too much and allow room for China to step down and comply with the rulings.
Wow, what fantasy and imagination !lol, I guess they have not gauge what Chinese analysts are saying. China will settle this score a few yrs down the line.

 

[solarz]

Beauty of the ruling is so one sided. It doesn't sugar coat anything, strictly anti china. It doesn't even attempt or masking to be somewhat fair at all. The ruling words are exactly from the US lawyer for the Philippines.
A few normally anti china media writers shed a few crocodile tears and said everybody should tone down and step back as not humiliate China too much and allow room for China to step down and comply with the rulings.
Wow, what fantasy and imagination !lol, I guess they have not gauge what Chinese analysts are saying. China will settle this score a few yrs down the line.

It is standard practice for western media to ignore everything China says and make up their own story, and then act all outraged when China doesn't follow their script.

 

[Blackstone]

It is standard practice for western media to ignore everything China says and make up their own story, and then act all outraged when China doesn't follow their script.

Welcome to the big boys' club! China needs to grow thicker skin, and learn from Hillary and Bill Clinton on how to shamelessly torture the truth and spin messages. It's the price of admission.

 

[Shaolian]

The United States paid a high price for this ruling, and for very dubious gains at that. This ruling implies that the US is very much siding with the Philipines, but at the cost of alienating both Taiwan and Vietnam.

But I guess that just shows how hard a game China is playing. Arguably, any decisions that does not invalidate Taiping Island as an UNCLOS defined "island" would be seen as a victory for China. So the tribunal had no choice really, but to stoop to the point of calling even an island with its own natural fresh water to be a "rock".

Almost all of the western sponsored think-tanks conceded, after Taiwan inserted itself into the arbitration, that Taiping would most probably constitute an Island. Discussions even among Taiwanese themselves after the ruling, that this episode reminds of the treaties forced on the Ching Dynasty by the Eight Allied Nations.

 

[vesicles]

In my opinion, China actually won this battle, even though the ruling was against them. And it was because of Taiwan. If it wasn't Taiwan inserting itself into the debate immediately after the ruling, China would have to face a tough PR battle. Although China has been insisting that they reject the ruling, they would still have to face an uphill battle whenever anyone brings it up.

Now Taiwan, a traditional ally of the west and a democratic govnt, flat out rejects the ruling even though they had not been legally included in the arbitration. This is especially interesting given that Taiwan is the strongest rival of China. Even more interestingly, the statement was made by their newly elected president who is an anti-China DPP.

I'm not sure if the US actually anticipated Taiwan's unusually strong response. This puts them in a very tough position. The more they push China and force China to accept the ruling, the more they would alienate Taiwanese public. That would push Taiwan toward China. They cannot afford to alienate Taiwan who is a much more important ally strategically than the Philippines.

So IMHO, because of the involvement of Taiwan, China is winning this battle in the SCS.

 

[Blitzo]

In my opinion, China actually won this battle, even though the ruling was against them. And it was because of Taiwan. If it wasn't Taiwan inserting itself into the debate immediately after the ruling, China would have to face a tough PR battle. Although China has been insisting that they reject the ruling, they would still have to face an uphill battle whenever anyone brings it up.

Now Taiwan, a traditional ally of the west and a democratic govnt, flat out rejects the ruling even though they had not been legally included in the arbitration. This is especially interesting given that Taiwan is the strongest rival of China. Even more interestingly, the statement was made by their newly elected president who is an anti-China DPP.

I'm not sure if the US actually anticipated Taiwan's unusually strong response. This puts them in a very tough position. The more they push China and force China to accept the ruling, the more they would alienate Taiwanese public. That would push Taiwan toward China. They cannot afford to alienate Taiwan who is a much more important ally strategically than the Philippines.

So IMHO, because of the involvement of Taiwan, China is winning this battle in the SCS.

I don't think anyone can be said to be "winning" after this ruling, but I do agree that the Taiwan factor has thrown a wrench into the gears.

I think also important in the ruling is that the PCA didn't actually make any explicit decree about what China needed to do -- i.e.: the Philippines' request for the PCA to make a statement of "China shall respect the rights and freedoms of the Philippines and comply with its duties under the Convention" -- was not made, because the PCA felt such a declaration was not necessary.
I won't say that without such a declaration the PCA ruling is toothless, but it does take away a lot of its bite.

 

[vesicles]

I don't think anyone can be said to be "winning" after this ruling, but I do agree that the Taiwan factor has thrown a wrench into the gears.

I do believe it's a win for China. It was already expected that the ruling would be against China. So nothing surprising there. We knew all along that China would not be affected by the ruling.

But we also knew that China would be facing a PR firestorm. We have been talking about the Chinese getting a thicker skin. However, Taiwan's involvement practically rendered ruling meaningless, even on the PR front. That effectively saved China from the PR firestorm.

On top of that, if the US makes any missteps, China can use the opportunity to pull Taiwan into its orbit.

 

[nfgc]

All of you seem incapable of discernment.

This ruling comes down and everyone posts about:
1) The USA
2) The West
3) Taiwan

Everyone's continued intellectual ability to grasp that this involves The Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia, Brunei, Korea, Japan and Malaysia (all not Western) is a stellar example of the Chinese, and pro-China supporters, inability to view reality accurately.

I see this all the time here. I mention Indonesia etal., and you all instinctively blurt out THE WEST.
If you think that Indonesia is the west, then you are delusional.

I see this often in Chinese media - The Chinese, when they say The West, what they really mean is "Everything that is not Chinese, with the exceptions (perhaps) of ErBen and HanGuo which are Chinese-based cultures."

What you really mean is "Not China" when you say 'The West'.
Everyone else, in other words.

 

[AssassinsMace]

All of you seem incapable of discernment.

This ruling comes down and everyone posts about:
1) The USA
2) The West
3) Taiwan

Everyone's continued intellectual ability to grasp that this involves The Philippines, Vietnam, Indonesia, Brunei, Korea, Japan and Malaysia (all not Western) is a stellar example of the Chinese, and pro-China supporters, inability to view reality accurately.

I see this all the time here. I mention Indonesia etal., and you all instinctively blurt out THE WEST.
If you think that Indonesia is the west, then you are delusional.

I see this often in Chinese media - The Chinese, when they say The West, what they really mean is "Everything that is not Chinese, with the exceptions (perhaps) of ErBen and HanGuo which are Chinese-based cultures."

What you really mean is "Not China" when you say 'The West'.
Everyone else, in other words.

You mean like when the BBC has their world opinion poll every year and they say China has disapproval from the world, the "world" is actually Western countries and their allies which make up the majority of the countries polled and not every country in the world?

 

[Dolcevita]

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Wednesday, 13 July 2016 | MYT 12:08 PM

Taiwan sends warship to South China Sea
TAIPEI: A Taiwanese warship set sail for the South China Sea on Wednesday “to defend Taiwan’s maritime territory”, a day after an international tribunal ruled China has no historic rights in the waterway and undermined Taipei’s claims to islands there.

President Tsai Ing-wen rallied troops on the deck of the frigate, saying Taiwanese were determined to “defend their country’s rights”, before the warship headed for Taiwan-controlled Taiping island in the Spratly island chain from the southern city of Kaohsiung.

The Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague ruled Tuesday that China has no historic rights to its claimed “nine-dash line” and that it had violated the Philippines’ sovereign rights in the exclusive economic zone.

Crucially for Taipei, it ruled that Taiwan-administered Taiping, the largest island in the Spratlys chain, was legally a “rock” that did not give it an exclusive economic zone, undermining Taiwanese claims to waters surrounding the island.



Taiwan’s government said the ruling was “completely unacceptable” and had no legally binding force since the arbitral tribunal did not formally invite Taipei to participate in its proceedings or solicit its views.


“The South China Sea ruling, especially the categorisation of Taiping island, has severely jeopardised our country’s rights in the South China Sea islands and their relevant waters,” Tsai told soldiers on the deck of ship in footage broadcast by news channels.


“This patrol mission will show Taiwanese people’s determination to defend their country’s rights,” she said, before disembarking from the warship ahead of its departure.

The defence ministry vowed to “firmly defend Taiwan’s territory and sovereignty” and said there would be no change to Taiwan’s claims in the strategic seas because of the ruling.

It brought the deployment of the warship forward by a day in reaction to the ruling.

The ministry said in a statement it would continue to send aircraft and ships for patrol missions to the region and remain “highly vigilant” to protect national security.

Tsai’s predecessor Ma Ying-jeou visited Taiping in January to press Taiwan’s claims and show that Taiping is an island, not a rock, in a move that triggered criticism from the United States as well as protests from Vietnam and the Philippines.

The Spratlys are also claimed in part or whole by China, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia and Brunei. – AFP