China's SCS Strategy Thread

[solarz]

Yeah, it also let you choose what to expect. Seems like first option is most possible.

I would bet on Philippines opening fire first. Seems like a good payout and the Philippines coast guard aren't exactly disciplined.

 

[nfgc]

Western countries - less than 15% of the world's population.

I am referring to everyone else. YOU assumed wrongly that I think of everyone else as "western". No, that is what Chinese do.

By the way Western civilisation invented the computer, laptop, internet, computer processor, smartphone, and electricity transmission theory that makes your communication on this board possible.

Don't force your system of extreme exploitation on the PLANET EARTH (pollution which started with the western industrialization)

No mention of the millennial of Chinese exploitation of the soil that has it cratered to useless dust (I lived in China and knew the farmers, the soil in China has been dead for centuries), or the fact that China has burnt and continues to burn all of their shrubs and forests. There are no forests left in China, all were cut down and burned.

This burning was done for hundred's of years before Western Industrialisation, putting countless millions of tonnes of dust and CO2 into the atmosphere.

Pre-1750 China contributed more to CO2 levels on earth than anyone else.

They also destroyed more environment than anyone else pre-1750.

 

[solarz]

I am referring to everyone else. YOU assumed wrongly that I think of everyone else as "western". No, that is what Chinese do.

By the way Western civilisation invented the computer, laptop, internet, computer processor, smartphone, and electricity transmission theory that makes your communication on this board possible.



No mention of the millennial of Chinese exploitation of the soil that has it cratered to useless dust (I lived in China and knew the farmers, the soil in China has been dead for centuries), or the fact that China has burnt and continues to burn all of their shrubs and forests. There are no forests left in China, all were cut down and burned.

This burning was done for hundred's of years before Western Industrialisation, putting countless millions of tonnes of dust and CO2 into the atmosphere.

Pre-1750 China contributed more to CO2 levels on earth than anyone else.

They also destroyed more environment than anyone else pre-1750.

Yeah, excuse us for growing food on our land for thousands of years instead going out and colonizing other people's lands and using them as slaves.

Please hurry to your local clinic and get a rabies shot before it's too late. You've already got foam on your mouth.

 

[Shaolian]

for those who read Chinese, this is a bit ironic.

I think the US might want to push their luck here, so I'd like to take a punt on the third option: "Small Military Incident Between China & US" at odds of 4.23

 

[solarz]

I think the US might want to push their luck here, so I'd like to take a punt on the third option: "Small Military Incident Between China & US" at odds of 4.23

We should start a sinodefence betting pool using those odds! Anyone else want to jump in?

 

[Zetageist]

THE SOUTH CHINA SEA ARBITRATION

Hague Tribunal Ruling full text press release:

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[Blackstone]

We should start a sinodefence betting pool using those odds! Anyone else want to jump in?

Very, very bad idea, even in jest.

 

[Zetageist]

By ruling an island the size of Itu Aba as reef, this verdict had just destroyed the claims on SCS by ROC, Vietnam, and half of Malaysian claims as they all claim by virtue of existing islands, which had all been ruled as reefs.

By extrapolating this ruling over UNLOS, this also have serious repercussions on Japan/ Korea conflict on ECS over Dokdo/Takeshima, ROC/ Japan conflict over Okinotorishima, PRC/Japan conflict over Socotra Rock etc, as all of those are far smaller than Itu Aba and will now all be considered reefs.

I have never imagined that the PCA can be so stupid. Not only China is going to ignore this ruling, but I will imagine so would most of the SCS claimants plus many more.

Also, United States also control a lot of reefs in the Pacific Ocean, and if following the logic of this verdict then all the reefs in the world would not be considered as islands and have no continental shelf claim nor 200 nm EEZ claim.

Oh, BTW, United States is not a signatory of UNLOS, so this ruling does not apply to U.S. holdings.

 

[Hytenxic]

The result of the ruling was expected and with China rightfully not accepting the ruling, the question is what happens after.

I don't think there will be any major military moves on any sides, though I do expect some joint exercises and sailing around the islands in the coming few months before the issue fades into the background again withing nothing much changed.

I am interested to see what Duterte might do after this. He seems to be keen on direct negotiations with China but lets see if that remains after the ruling. Entering into negotiations with China might anger the population and therefore lose support as they seem to be quite zealous about the whole ruling.

I'm also interested if China does anything extra to respond in addition to the ongoing construction and deployment of military assets in the area.

 

[Zetageist]

I'm also interested if China does anything extra to respond in addition to the ongoing construction and deployment of military assets in the area.

The most heated zone after this ruling will be Scarborough Shoal since it is still in China's control and close to Manila and U.S. bases. China might just want to go ahead to turn it into an artificial island just to spite Philippines and the U.S. The U.S. naval vessels have been attempted to go within 14-20 nm of Scarborough Shoal recently, so Scarborough Shoal is a big concern of Philippines and U.S.