China's SCS Strategy Thread

sinopakfriend

Just Hatched
Registered Member
The result of the ruling was expected and with China rightfully not accepting the ruling, the question is what happens after.

I don't think there will be any major military moves on any sides, though I do expect some joint exercises and sailing around the islands in the coming few months before the issue fades into the background again withing nothing much changed.

I am interested to see what Duterte might do after this. He seems to be keen on direct negotiations with China but lets see if that remains after the ruling. Entering into negotiations with China might anger the population and therefore lose support as they seem to be quite zealous about the whole ruling.

I'm also interested if China does anything extra to respond in addition to the ongoing construction and deployment of military assets in the area.

Just as you pointed out, the outcome was a known even before it became public.

Some rhetoric from both sides, US and China. Some news articles in papers...

Even the Philppinos knew about it. The best option is let things cool off and then back to the negotiating table. Primarily between US and China.

That Philppines will be negotiating with China is also a given. Most interesting will be the sound bites coming from ASEAN.

Hopefully, a peaceful solution can be found. The best and only option really.
 

eldarlmari

New Member
Since this is a 'strategy' thread:

What is the PH and/or the US gonna do in the event that China starts reclaiming land or Scarborough Shoal in the coming weeks?
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
Not much they can do unless they want to start a full blown shooting war.

Chinese reactions will depend mostly on how the Philipines behaves.

As far as China is concerned, the ruling is about as relevant and lasting as a fart in the wind. It will carry on as if it never happened.

It's only if other parties try to act on the ruling to harm Chinese rights and interests that you will see China push back, and push back hard.

If the Philipines continue with its conciliatory words and follow through with real, meaningful good faith actions, I think China will be keen to reciprocate.

However, if they show the kind of arrogance and stupidity of the previous administration, you can bet there will be a new Chinese island built on Scarbrough Shoal, and there won't be a thing anyone can do about it unless they want to start a full blown shooting war.
 

tidalwave

Senior Member
Registered Member
China urgently needs fire power equivalent of 3 carrier groups for its south sea fleet in order to deter enforcers coming in. That means 120 air fighters, 6 SSN, 12 destroyers.
 

tidalwave

Senior Member
Registered Member
From Chinese analysis, they believe SCS case is mainly instigated by US, they suggest China will hunker down till China reach military and nuke parity in 2020s then SCS issue will be solved.
 

Iron Man

Major
Registered Member
China can now join the ranks of the US, UK, and Russia in simply ignoring the rulings of these courts when it doesn't suit their national interests. The strong do as they will, and the weak suffer as they must. Though I like this one better: the weak are meat the strong do eat.
 

Ultra

Junior Member
I believe that's what the US wants. If war starts now, US would still have the upper hand. If US waits a few more years, they would have no advantage left. The choice for US is both logical and obvious.


That's what I been saying for a long time, both Japan and US wants to pick a fight with China now because they still have the upper hand. if war cannot happen, they want to at least getting international support on putting sanctions on China to stunt China's economic growth like they did to Russia and Iran. But even that option is looking insane for majority of the world because now China is the largest trading partner with almost all the country in the world.
 

Ultra

Junior Member
China can now join the ranks of the US, UK, and Russia in simply ignoring the rulings of these courts when it doesn't suit their national interests. The strong do as they will, and the weak suffer as they must. Though I like this one better: the weak are meat the strong do eat.


Cloud Atlas? ;)
One of my all time favourite.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
I believe that's what the US wants. If war starts now, US would still have the upper hand. If US waits a few more years, they would have no advantage left. The choice for US is both logical and obvious.

Maybe some elements within the US, but I don't think those people are in the majority or else there would be war already.

The SCS is actually just about the worst place the US could pick a fight with China in.

It's still the other side of the world from the US, but unlike say North East Asia, there are few 'solid' American allies in the region willing to go to war with America, certainly not against China. The one or two friends and allies who might be willing to risk it are militarily insignificant and would be more burden than boon in a shooting war.

The SCS is far enough from any Chinese strategic assets of worth that any attempts to attack such targets on the mainland would be seen as a massive escalation of a limited, regional war, and massively increases the risk the conflict could spiral out of all control. So Amercia would be under immense pressure to not go there. If they do, they can expect what little international support they have to wither and die, and that will adversely affect American moral.

However, it is still close enough to China for China to enjoy most of the key home field advantage in terms of distances (loiter time, situational awareness, reaction time), logistics (new missiles and bombs could be in the fight hours after rolling off the line, nearly impossible to meaningfully disrupt Chinese supply lines), goegraphical familiarity (PLAN captains and crews would know the area far better than their American counterparts, and China could count on the help and experience of Chinese fishermen know have generations of accumulated local knowledge to further enhance that knowledge gap).

But most importantly of all, the SCS matter an order of magnitude more to your average Chinese soldier and civilian than could be said of their American opposites.

In my view, for America to fight China in the SCS would have a similar outcome and impact as the British-American naval war of 1812.

The USN is unlikely to be utterly routed, but neither are they likely to achieve the kind of overwhelming victory they, and the world, have become accustomed to expect.

Given the geographical realities, any such war, (so long as the people calling the shots on both sides want to stop short of total nuclear war) will likely end in stalemate or a Pyrrhic victory at best. But even a minor net loss will be a massive win for China, and signal clearly to all that America is no longer the supreme military power on the planet, with all the implications and knock-on effects that would go with such a paradigm shifting fulcrum.
 
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