China Navy Power

Consider this scenario: China annexes N.Korea (or accepts it as new province) in a few years and a Cold War starts with S.Korea & Japan. Now, how the combined ROKN, JMSDF & ROCN will compare to the PLAN that absorbed the former NK navy? In my view, China's navy will have to be adequate to meet the challenge from any combination of forces against it.

BLUEJACKET said:

Consider this scenario: China annexes N.Korea (or accepts it as new province) in a few years and a Cold War starts with S.Korea & Japan. Now, how the combined ROKN, JMSDF & ROCN will compare to the PLAN that absorbed the former NK navy? In my view, China's navy will have to be adequate to meet the challenge from any combination of forces against it.

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First, there isn't really anything to "absorb" from the mighty NK navy. Secondly, hell would have frozen over before China annexes NK. So I guess what I'm saying is, don't lose sleep over it.

I do believe PLAN can replace its ships on a 1 to 1 basis.
A couple of things to consider:
1. unlike most modern navies, PLAN is probably getting a 15% increase in budget every year. So, it's in less of a cash crunch than most navies.
2. with the expansion of Chinese shipbuilding industry, it does have the capability to mass produce ships at an extremely fast pace like what we've seen with 054A, 022 and 052B/C.
3. with the growth of its shipbuilding industry, it can build most ships and accompanying weapons at a high quality and still cheaper than every country in the world (in january, I believe China overtook South Korea in total orders for the first time in recent history).

Out of the 4 services, you can probably see the fastest growth in terms of equipment for PLAN, because the civilian shipbuilding industry is far stronger than that of automaking industry or aerospace industry or space communication industry. For example, plaaf can only get several new regiments per year and has problems getting large and medium transports and helicopters. There is no way for example that CAC is capable of building 500 J-10s a year like LockMart did with F-16s. Comparatively speaking, it seems that PLAN is getting more new ships than any other navy around the world. The problem in the coming years for PLAN is not building large and capable warships, but rather than to train the people needed to handle these ships. From what I read from a well respected source on Chinese forum, it seems like PLAN is severely lagging behind PLA and PLAAF in training. Whereas blue vs red kind of exercises are common in the other 2 services, PLAN just simply don't have as much. It looks like a case where the new equipments are coming too fast too absorb.

Before I move on, I feel like the first two areas are the ones that PLAN has concentrated the most on so far. It shows that although PLAN is building a quality navy, it's still concentrating on defensive assets like frigates, FACs, SSKs most.

The next one I'd like to look at is the large ships area.
Of course, we know about Varyag's status in Dalian. It's most likely going to become a training carrier of some sort. I do anticipate that you will see Varyag start sailing in the next couple of years and training starting by 2012. Basically, su-33s should've been delivered by then. At the same time, the indigenous carriers should begin construction in Shanghai. The logic construction sites are the new JN shipyard in Changxing and HD. I do believe that we will see 2 carriers starting construction at the same time. They obviously won't be finished by 2012, but we should at least have some pictures by then.

large amphibious assets is also interesting to look at, according to xinhui, we probably have over 20 Yuting units and 7 Yukan. Probably around 30 Type 72s altogether. We've also seen the launching of the first 071. As seen with Type 72, HD and Dalian shipyard will be the ones building 071. Now, I don't expect Dalian to be able to build as fast as HD (which really made an extremely tight deadline). There are also still some questions with the design like what kind of LCAC will it use, how many helicopters of what type can be fit and whether it will stick with the original air defense configuration of just 4 AK-630s+AK-176. However, from what we saw with 072, it does seem like they will keep building it for a while. I think HD has the capability of pumping 1 out every year and Dalian probably every 1 and half. The question is whether PLAN has the money to pay for it. If it does, then we could see 5 to 8 units of this by 2012. That would significantly increase the sea-lift capability of PLA.

A possible project is a LHD design similar to wasp. It is something that's really missing in PLAN. However, the problem at the moment is that China just doesn't have STOVL fighters nor does it have the necessary indigenous naval helicopters needed. Using the same logic, it would also rule out an attack helo carrier. Basically, until China does bring navalized Z-15 or 10 tonne helicopter into service, there is no point building something like this.

You make some very good points about the trends of the PLAN. If the current trends continue, it is in the foreseeable future that China will catch up to other regional navies, such as Japan and SK. And because of this, you are beginning to see some subtle signs that the Taiwanese constituency and their elected politicians are more inclined to negotiate with the mainlanders and distancing themselves from the prospect of an armed race.

However, it is during this period of the shifting of the balance of power that the pro-indepedence side is mostly likely to make a bold move rather than wait 10-15 years until it's too late. So in that respect, China has to be prepared to be engaged in a conflict right now, when it is still lagging, in technology, numbers and doctrine. That's why the Chinese must develop some kind of decisive weapon system that is extremely hard to defend if called on to deter or defeat its adversaries. To me, the ability to hit a carrier with a ballistic missile is much more devastating than having 20 DDGs, well, at least in the short term.

I will move onto the missiles later, but the next topic to look at is the remaining part of the fleet. (edit: I think I will concentrate with motors for this one)

Yes, I did miss the 4 Sovs. My current feeling with Sovs, Udaloy and Slava is that although they are quality ships, but they are basically all cold war relics. With a modern navy, you want more stealthy designs, using more a main multi-functional radar, common VLS (be able to pack numerous missiles) and more advanced combat system and communication system. The main thing that Chinese ships miss these day is the lack of good engines. Whereas most ships are using CODOG or COGAG and some ships even using electric motor, China is still stuck with mostly steam turbine and CODAD powered ships. We've heard some of the problems they have with the Ukrainian gas turbine D/A-80 for 052B/C. It seems like they have some indigenous/cloning designs ready in the form of QD-168, QC-185 and QC-260, but still waiting to see what ships they go on. Actually this is the gas turbine page of Shenyang Liming, you can take a look at the projects that they have on going if you can read Chinese.

This is a nice listing of the specs of QD-168
Output: 16.8 MW
Thermal Efficiency: 36.5%
Heat Rate (KJ/KW.h): 9896
Exhaust gas flow (kg/s): 64.84
Exhaust gas temp (K): 722
power turbine speed rpm: 5300
alternator rated speed? rpm: 3000
full-life span: 5000 hours
MTBO: 1000 hours
no mention of size

And now, the much talked about QC/QD-185.

It was first shown in Zhuhai 04, this is the one they developed using technology from WS-10A I think.

If you read this page.

It talks about in October of 2005, they had CMC, PLAN , AVIC1 officials all attending its unveiling, seems to be a pretty big deal. I think it was breaking ground on a factory to produce this?
It even mentionned this

该项目是为了加速我国国防现代化建设，提高和加强海军的作战能力而进行的基础条件建设，围绕我国燃气轮机发展采取的航机舰改技术，建设设计开发、试验验证、工艺制造三个平台，形成一个具有自主创新能力的舰船燃气轮机研发体系，为服务国防建设，有着非常重大的国家利益、现实意义和社会效益。

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which basically translates to this project is for speeding the modernization of national defense, improving and strengthening the navy's combat capability and also improving basic condition, this gas turbine is developed using aerospace engine technology. Building development, testing, workmanship -> 3 platforms, forming an indigenously development gas turbine.

some specs here.
output: 17.8 MW (compared to the current LM-2500, which delivers 25.1 MW, still lagging quite a bit)
Thermal Efficiency: 37.2% (37% also for LM-2500)
Heat Rate (KJ/KW.h): 9710 (6860 BTU/shp-hr for LM-2500)
Exhaust gas flow (kg/s): 58.6 (155 lb/s -> 70.5 kg/s for LM-2500)
Exhaust gas temp (K): 1538 (1000 F for LM-2500)
power turbine speed rpm: 5500 (3600 rpm for LM-2500)
no mention of the size or life expectancy.

Finally, there is also the QD-128, which you can find here
It has a peak output of 13.2 MW and is ready for commercial order.
There are also RO-110, QD-70, QD-45, QD-20, producing 120 MW, 7.1MW, 4.8 MW and 2.1 MW respectively.

As for the mystical QC-260, I assume with the number 260, it's suppose to generated 26 MW of power. Although, I haven't found any official specs on this yet.

I think if QC-185 and QC-260 are more ready, we might see them on the next batch of 052D or 051D.

Another thing to think about is the nuclear powered ships. There has long been talks about the pebblebed reactors with PLAN SSNs. I'm not sure if it ever happened. One thing I'm personally watching out for is pebblebed reactors for possibly future SSNs and ACs.

Back to the Russian ships as I ramble on, we have seen some more modern designs out, but I wouldn't say any of the hulls are more stealthy/advanced than the PLAN ones. And also, I don't really think the Russian shipyards can produce ships of the same workmanship as the Chinese shipyards. Through purchasing sovs, China got its hands on things like Sunburn, shtil, top plate, Ka-28, orekh FCR, ak-630 and kashtan. I'm not sure at this point, what additional Russian missiles or CIWS that the Russians have to offer, China would be interested at this point. I suppose if they do purchase anything from the Russians in the future, it would be naval S-400 SAM if that ever finishes development, but I don't think there is anymore battleships on order.

Edit, just continuing by looking at some of the other articles posted on that webpage that have since been deleted.

求真务实 开拓创新 黎明公司走上稳建快速发展轨道 近五十年的技术积累，特别是改革开放以来的发展建设以来，在深化改革的同时，公司依托航空发动机核心技术专长，突出整体优势的发挥，坚持走国际化、专业化发展之路，集中力量在航空发动机、航空转包零部件、燃气轮机等领域定向定位发展。 在中国即将加入WTO和西部大开发的历史机遇面前，黎明公司快速反应、调整思路，以文化优势、环境优势和技术实力积极打造与国际惯例接轨的竞争平台，建立起一个可以和任何所有制企业相竞争的管理运行机制，使黎明公司进入持续发展的快车道，真正承担起振兴民族航空工业的历史使命。 航空发动机及其零部件，燃气轮机零部件制造，燃气轮机成套设备制造及热电联供机组安装、调试、运行和维修； 重型燃机： 利用国家科技部“863”重型燃机重大专项，以R0110重型燃机产品为母型机，形成自主设计平台和制造平台，并采用结构放大和缩小原理，拓展出7万kW和14万kW的机组，形成重型轻结构的7万~15万kW的基本型谱。 该型燃机是黎明公司在重型燃机领域的突破产品，预计在2005年完成首台样机的制造。 重型燃机的目标产品定位在发电、热电联供和联合循环，重型轻结构燃机产品随着我国军备的整体提升，可能在舰用上占有一席之地。时常区域分布广泛，尤其在我国西部地区，重型轻结构燃机的可运输性有着不可替代的优势。 轻型燃机： 以在研、在制和大修的航机为基础，本着一机多用、军民结合的原则，瞄准特定的目标市场，研制、生产系列轻型燃机产品，成为国内航改型系列燃机产品的生产、装配和试车基地。轻型燃机产品：（1）QD-70、QC70和QC185燃气轮机 以上燃机产品均为A型机的衍生产品，具有一机多用的显著特点。QC70和QC185燃气轮机的目标市场大致相同，适用做船舶动力、地面燃气轮机电站机组、管道输送等动力机组等，海军2020年前的舰用动力规划会上已将这两型机确定为未来我军舰用动力的主要产品之一，同时，QC185燃机也可用于未来我军舰载综合电力系统的主要装备装配部队。目前QC70的上舰立项工作已经完成。QD-70主要用于小规模电厂、高层建筑和城市小区备用电源、船舶动力、机车动力等领域。首台QD70燃机目前已在中原点火成功，未来70系列产品的发展将以QC70为主，即满足我军装备的需求，同时扩大产品在地面应用的独立能源系统的市场。 （2）QD128和QC260燃机 这两型燃机主要是“昆仑”发动机的衍生产品。QC260燃机是以“昆仑”发动机为主，采用先进的间冷回热技术发展的新一代舰用燃机。 QD128燃机是在某型航空发动机的基础上合作开发的分轴式燃气轮机, 拥有完全自主知识产权。 QD128燃气轮机机组可用于发电、热电冷联供、管输增压站等动力装置。也可用于医院、电信系统、机场、宾馆、现代化小区、石油天然气等部门，建立自己独立的能源系统。首台QD128燃气轮机热电联供机组电厂已经在河南建成，开始并网发电。 （3）QD168和QD168— 这两型燃机均为在俄罗斯最先进战斗机发动机的基础上改型研制的轻型工业用燃气轮机，具有同等功率级燃机世界先进水平，该型燃气轮机与同等或相近功率等级的其他机械驱动燃气轮机相比，热效率高，可靠性好，稳定工作范围大。 首台QD168验证机将在2003年内完成燃气发生器的台架试车工作。QD168－燃机是结合QD168燃机的特点，针对其特殊的目标市场进行改制的一型燃机，这种改制对于同等功率在国内的国外机组退役后的补充条件建设有着极大的好处。 微型燃机： 利用增压器研制和批生产能力和导发的批量制造能力，瞄准适用于军民两用的独立能源系统，黎明公司正在研制开发WD095 95kW全径流式、单转子结构微型燃机产品，以WD095微型燃机为母型机，通过等比例放大和改进改型，形成从95kW到800kW（95kW、260kW、500kW、800kW）的系列微型燃机产品，用于分布式供电及驱动动力，放大后还可用于舰船备用电源。 航空转包零部件，汽车涡轮增压器等系列产品的设计与制造，铝合金压铸件、钢质锻件、金刚石滚轮、各种拉刀、量具、刃具等。

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It talks about using WD-095 and RO-110 as the original engine and then expand or minitiaurize to create other turbines of different power/application class.
Of note, QC -> for ships, QD -> for electricity generation.
So, we have QC-70, QC-185, QC-260 as what appears to be the 3 types of ship powering gas turbines. In fact, it says that the navy will use QC-70 and QC-185 as the two main types of gas turbine until 2020.

谈黎明轻型燃气轮机项目-兼议天朝最新涡扇航空发动机
作者：轰炸机
由于历史的原因，天朝在燃气轮机项目上一直落后于世界。世界上第一台实用的燃气轮机早在1920年就诞生了，1947年，第一艘装备燃气轮机的舰艇在英国下水。而这时新中国还没有建立，国共两党正忙于你死我活的厮杀之中，所以更不用谈现代化的工业发展了。

天朝的第一个由航空发动机改装而成的用于发电的燃气轮机诞生于1984年，是由涡喷6G发动机改装而成。迄今为止，黎明一共提供了仅仅10台该型燃气轮机，数量少得可怜。

目前天朝燃气轮机产业分散在机械、航空、兵器、船舶、航天等工业部门，均为低水平重复。总的说来，还处在初级发展阶段。在美国的LM2500燃气轮机早在70年代就大量装舰的的时候，我们还缺少合适的国产燃气轮机，以至于不得不用柴油机或其他发动机。但是燃气轮机具有其他发动机无与伦比的优势：那就是只需占用较小的体积就可以发出巨大的动力！绝大多数航空发动机改装的轻型燃气轮机每发出1KW的功率，所需的重量不到200克，对于每一公斤重量都很宝贵的军舰等来说无疑具有巨大的吸引力。这也就是为什么上世纪70年代以来燃气轮机大量取代蒸汽轮机和柴油机上舰的主要原因。在80年代天朝曾经获得过几台LM2500，后来因为美国的制裁没有能够继续得到该型燃机，所以只有和两艘舰装有LM2500。但是海军还是感受到了燃气轮机巨大的优势。在后续舰只里天朝即便只能使用性能稍差的乌克兰DA-80也在所不惜。

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a little more, basically up to the point that this guy wrote this article in 2004, Shenyang Liming had only delivered 10 gas turbine altogether. Basically says that they got some LM-2500 in the 80s but nothing more. The ships afterward can only use the inferior DA-80.

本文仅仅谈谈黎明的轻型燃机项目，重型燃机如R0110，或微型燃机不在本文的讨论范围之内。所有这些轻型燃机都是由航空发动机改装的，与现役的发动机有很高的通用性，因此可以节约大量的费用。

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this is only going to be talking about light gas turbine that are basically developed from aerospace engines.

（1）QD70: 以某A型发动机为主，是“具有90年代世界先进水平的燃机”，动力涡轮输出功率7060 kW（峰值可达8000KW），热效率31.2%，燃气发生器总增压比 13.2，空气流量29 kg/s，其工作负荷比在航机上有“大幅度降低”（黎明称比国内外所有的航改燃机下降的幅度都大），这有助于提高机组的工作可靠性和寿命。该机2003年7月在中原油田与下面提到的QD128共同并网发电，投入市场运作。其后发现了一些问题并进行了改进。

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QD-70 - developed from WS-10A, claims to be at the 90s level of gas turbine. has a maximum output of 8 MW and thermal efficiency of 31.2% ....

（2）QD128: 以“昆仑”发动机为主。燃气发生器来源于昆仑（去掉加力部件），动力涡轮是以斯贝SK15HE型为原准机修改而成。输出功率11500KW（峰值功率为13200KW），热效率28%，燃气发生器总增压比12，空气流量60kg/s。动力涡轮温度1028摄氏度。其技术性能据称处于世界中等偏上水平。“昆仑”发动机于2002年5月20日通过设计定型，但QD-128燃气轮机的首台机组于2000年就已完成制造。可见“昆仑”发动机产业化的思路早就制定下来了。

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QD-128 - developed from kunlun, has maximum output of 13.2 MW, thermal efficiency of 28%. even though kunlun didn't achieve certification until May of 2002, QD-128's first unit was delivered by 2000.

（3）QD168和168A: 按照黎明的说法，这两型燃机均为“在俄罗斯最先进战斗机发动机的基础上改型研制而成”。QD168A的研制工作，从1999年10月份开始设计方案前期研究； 2000年～2001年底进行了该项目的总体方案设计， 2001年7月份开始结构设计。2002年6月完成了验证机的全部结构设计工作并开始研制，首台验证机研制于2003年底完成验证机的调试、试车工作，2004年初将首台配SPEY动力涡轮的燃气发生器运抵试验电厂进行试验。空气流量： 64.8kg/s，涡轮前温度： 1142℃（比航机降了250℃），输出功率16800KW，热效率35%。

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QD-168/A - apparently, these were developed from Russian fighter engines? (I guess AL-31?). Anyhow, QD-168A's development started in october of 99 and the first experimental engine finished testing by end of 2003. by 2004, the first one using spey motor was sent for testing. The output is 16.8 MW, heat efficiency 35%.

（4）QC185: 以某A型发动机为主。额定功率可达17780KW，热效率高达37.2%，即使在世界范围内，这个数字也是非常高的。其涡轮进口温度是1265℃。而空气流量只有58.6kg/s，这个数字甚至小于QD128，足以说明其原型机的水平之高。QC185燃气轮机验证机燃气发生器已经于2004年2月8日正式点火成功。其综合性能指标应当位于同档功率世界先进水平之列。

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apparently, developed from WS-10A too, as mentionned, output of 17.8 MW and thermal efficiency of 37.2%, this is pretty good. The experimental unit of QC-185 ignited in February 8th of 2004. Apparently, it's specs are in the same level as the world leading gas turbine of this weight class

（5）QC70: 也以某A型发动机为主。性能不详。功率也应在7000KW左右，跟QD70相比做了一定的改进以满足进一步的要求。

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QC-70, improved from QD-70.

（6）QC260: 以“昆仑”发动机为主，是采用先进的间冷回热技术发展的新一代舰用燃机。目前所知不详。但是按照命名法，估计可达26000KW，已经达到了著名的美国LM2500燃气轮机的功率。其用途，想必大家都能想象得到，肯定是为上舰研制的。

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develped from kunlun engine - not much known in terms of progress. Can only guess from the name that the expected output is 26 MW, reaching LM2500's level.

FugitiveVisions said:

First, there isn't really anything to "absorb" from the mighty

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. Secondly, hell would have frozen over before China annexes NK. So I guess what I'm saying is, don't lose sleep over it.

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NK has many absolete subs, but their patrol/missile boats (some imported from PRC) aren't that useless/old to be scrapped-see the hyperlink above!

Some 40 guided missile boats pose a substantial threat; they have the capability of launching missile attacks against large vessels and are equipped with two to four 46-km-range Styx anti-ship missiles.
..Submarines, most of which are of the 20-some Romeo-class, are outdated and slow, but they are sufficiently capable of blocking sea lanes. These vessels could attack ROK surface vessels, emplace mines anywhere within the ROK maritime territory, or secretly infiltrate commandos into the South.

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About the future of NK I wouldn't be too sure- anything can happen after '08 Olympics in Beijing!

China's Alleged Plot to Annex North Korea
If the North Korean system collapses or a coup d'etat takes place in the North, South Korea will naturally fill the gap. This is an illusion. An opening of room for unification won't necessarily mean a unification of the two Koreas.
Though it has not been played up in the media in the absence of confirming its authenticity, an article appearing in the Internet recently stirred up ripples. Written by an anonymous person, the story is said to have rearranged a lecture given by a professor of politics at Beijing University, which plays the role of academic adviser to the Chinese government. Its gist is as follows.
"The North Korean regime cannot survive more than 10 years. If a pro-Chinese military faction grasps power following a collapse of the regime, China intends to incorporate North Korea into its military federation and eventually make it a subordinate state. The Northeast Asia Project now in progress is aimed at accumulating a historical basis for it...“
.."China intends to assert preemptive rights to the North Korean region following a collapse of North Korea." "China schemes to assert vested interests in North Korean territory." A few scholars have long made these contentions, Professor Song Ki-ho of Seoul National University among them. Furthermore, those concerned about Japan's right-wing views of history make this contention: "If Korea-Japan relationship deteriorates or South Korea's strength weakens, Japan may come up with a claim that Japan has preemptive rights to a southern portion of the Korean peninsula."
Our constitution prescribes North Korean territory as that of the Republic of Korea. In the international community, however, this is nothing but wishful thinking of ours. If one trusts that China, Japan, Russia and the United States, when circumstances develop in favor of a reunification of the two Koreas, would stand by seeing the two Koreas unified, he or she is naive indeed. Legally, China can dispatch its troops to North Korea if and when the South advances into North Korean territory, making use of the automatic intervention clause of the North Korea-China Friendship, Cooperation and Mutual Assistance Treaty. North Korea is a territory that China, Japan, the U.S. and Russia are reluctant to just leave alone.
..Among the four superpowers surrounding the Korean peninsula, it is only the United States that has such strength and with which we have had friendly relations.
Until a few years ago, we expected that the U.S. would stand on our side under such a situation. Many harbor doubts about it today, though. ..

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For more on this, see post#4 on
http://www.sinodefenceforum.com/showthread.php?t=2449

vessels armed with Styx are obsolete and no fighting value at all against anything with even rudimentary ECM capacity. It has been so since 1973 Yom Kibbur war

The Global security's article are almoust word to word from Convays All the world fighting ships - book and to my knowlidge, from its 1982 edition, so 25 years old....please do some source analyze before stating anything like that.

OK, those ASMs can be replaced with modern ones in PLAN's inventory. NK is so secretive that even the globalsecurity doesn't know much-

World Navies Today: North Korea Revised 3 November 2001

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-if anyone can find more recent info. my hat is off to them!
Even without those missile/torpedo boats, their mini-subs aren't to be easily dismissed, as have shown.

I'm not sure that building 100 022s is a smart idea. While surely stealthy yes, they seem to reflect more of a kamekaze idea, albeit supported with networked warfare. Would rather have an equal number of Songs. I am not sure what is the rate of production of Songs right now, we have not seen a new one in the docks since 2005, implying that the facilities are produce Houbeis instead.

The thing about shipbuilding capacity is that you have a limited number of slots available, and you have to decide wisely what you want to build to need to fill in that slot (quite similar to some PC strategy games). If you are building FACs now, you're may not be building subs. If you are building frigates now, you're not building destroyers. I think thats the reason why you're not seeing more new Yuans or a 052C followup, until the number of slots are increased of course.

In the future, I do expect they may start to produce a 052D, which maybe like the 052C but with the squared launchers used on the 054A. Or a 054B, which in my imagination may have a four sided phase array on the main mast.

On the 054 upgrade, I think there may be a new HQ-7 variant around. The PLA seems confident of the new HQ-7 that it is no longer continuing orders of Tor M1s.

yeah, but Song subs aren't built in the same shipyards as 054As. And HP seems to have no problem handling 3 054As and 12 Houbei at the same time.

well, I've kind of gone off the tangent by quite a bit, but I'd like to continue by looking at the remaining part of the fleet.

First part is the hovercraft. As mentionned in 2006, China signed a contract for 6 of Zubr class hovercraft. At the same time, it appears that China has interest of building it's own hovercraft. Whether it will be something of Zubr size, but it's clear that they will neeed to build something smaller (LCAC size or smaller) to fit in Type 71. I suppose for LCAC on LPD, they will need at least 10 to 20 if they will have around 5 to 8 LPDs. On top of that, they will probably have some hovercraft operating independently like Zubr. Of note, they built a total of 130 Type 067 landing craft.

Also mentionned is the catamaran landing craft. They've identified 3, but I think if they wanted it, they can probably build at least 20 to 30 of these things. It's not really in the spotlight, so haven't got any indication on how many China is looking for.

The next part is the supply ship. Currently, the have 881 to 888 and 886-888 are of the most recent class (although 888 is a newer version). It's reasonable to assume that they will build 3 to 5 more replenishment ships in 888 or descedent classes as the fleet becomes more blue water.

The MCM ships also have seen quite an improvement in the last year. We've seen the 805 type of minesweeper type of ship and 804 type of minehunter type of ship. As shown in the photos out of HD, they seemed to be building more 805 type (might be 328 repainted), maybe they have 2 now? (we've seen basically 805, 328 and the unpainted one, maybe they are all the same boat or not). Anyhow, I think they will be building 804 and 805 types for a few years to come. The question is how many HD can handle when it has other projects like 054A, 071, 022 and export ships to work on. I think getting 1 of each type for the next 5 years shouldn't be too hard to do. So, they probably have around 6 804 and 6 805 types in 5 years.

The next one is experiment ships. Right now, they have 891 (formerly known as 970) and 892 as the 2 experiment ships. They might get one more in the next 5 years, although it's not really necessary.

China has also been operating sub-chasers for a long time. In fact, it's ASW doctrine has always been to rely on sub-chasers, submarines and helicopters to find the opposing subs. So, will we see a new type of sub-chasers. I personally would like to see a stealthy corvette used for ASW mission. It would be something similar to the Project 28 corvette under construction for IN.