China Navy Power
- Thread starter Rising China
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Growth of PLAN
As the Chinese new year just finished, we are drawn into a new year of growth in PLAN. As we have seen in the last 5 years, PLAN has added 2 052B, 2 052C, 2 051C, 2 956EM, 2 054, 20+ Type 22s, numerous supply ships, new classes of minesweeper, numerous Yuting, 2 093, 1 094, 8 636M, 10+ Song/Yuan, 2 regiments of JH-7/A, 1 regiment of su-30mk2, 1 regiment of H-6M?, different Y-8 based surveillence assets like KJ-200, Y-8J, Y-8 MPA and such. On top of this, we have seen new missiles coming into service like YJ-83, YJ-62, kh-31/YJ-91, 3M80MBE, 3M54, HH-9, HH-16, improved HH-7 and 9M317. Improvements also are quite visible in shipborne radars like the ones on 054A and 052B and shipborne weapons like type 730 CIWS, kashtan, AK-176 clone and 100 mm main gun. I can easily argue that we have seen a several fold increase in the capability of PLAN.
So, I'd like to go through the current PLAN projects and do a rough estimation on what PLAN will look like in the middle of 2012 (so, 5 years from now). First we can start with major surface combatants. It's my opinion that we will see many 054 series frigates coming out in the next few years to keep HD and HP busy. At the same time, the 052 series destroyers will finally reach the end of prototyping and settle with a mass production design like what we have seen with 054A. First, a projection on the number of frigates in PLAN.
From 054, we see it takes about 1 year and half to go from launching to commissioning. If that's the case, then the first 054A will coming int the first half of 2008. If we go by the current launching rate, we are seeing about 4 054A per 6 months. I personally think that's a little extreme, so let's just say it will end up being around 5-6 054As per year.
In 4 years time, we can get 20-24 054A/successor. It's been projected on Chinese forum that China will build 20+ 054s to replace the jianghu class frigates. So by 2012, we should have about enough 054s to do that. Including the Jiangweis, PLAN should have around 25 054 series frigate and 14 Jiangwei class. Possibly, PLAN will have a design for a newer class of frigate by this time as the next generation frigate or maybe they will no longer procure frigates. Anyhow, you are likely to have 40 frigates with more than half of that quite modern.
The next part is the destroyers. The golden question at this point is whether or not 051C's succesor will get built. I have a feeling Dalian will get a few more orders to keep itself busy. With the military construction dock of Changxing (relocated JN) ready to go, we can expect 052D construction to start this or the next year imo. Which means we can see the first commissioning happen in the beginning of 2010. With the larger, newer shipyard, JN should be able to handle 2 to 4 052Ds per year (previously, it launched 2 052C in 2003 and 2 052B in 2002). That would suggest 5 to 10 052Ds by 2012. As for Dalian, if we go by the slow construction speed of 051C, I'd imagine that it would have anywhere from 0 to 4 051D. So, we can probably expect a destroyer force with 1 051B, 2 052, 2 051C, 2 052B, 2 052C, 8 052D, 2 051D. This would give PLAN almost 20 relatively modern destroyer. At this point, I think 051/052 series will be finished. PLAN will probably move onto something to try to match the performance of DD(X).
The other known part of the surface fleet is the FAC. Looking into several shipyards recent days, we have most likely 20+ 022s in various stage of production in these shipyards. With the current production rate, producing the 100 units needed to replace all of the 021/024s in 5 years seem to not be a problem. So, I would anticipate 100 022s.
Finally, there is the corvette/OPV class. 037 class has been around for a long time and will probably see a successor in the next 5 year. It's hard to speculate what it will look like or how many there will be at this point.
As the Chinese new year just finished, we are drawn into a new year of growth in PLAN. As we have seen in the last 5 years, PLAN has added 2 052B, 2 052C, 2 051C, 2 956EM, 2 054, 20+ Type 22s, numerous supply ships, new classes of minesweeper, numerous Yuting, 2 093, 1 094, 8 636M, 10+ Song/Yuan, 2 regiments of JH-7/A, 1 regiment of su-30mk2, 1 regiment of H-6M?, different Y-8 based surveillence assets like KJ-200, Y-8J, Y-8 MPA and such. On top of this, we have seen new missiles coming into service like YJ-83, YJ-62, kh-31/YJ-91, 3M80MBE, 3M54, HH-9, HH-16, improved HH-7 and 9M317. Improvements also are quite visible in shipborne radars like the ones on 054A and 052B and shipborne weapons like type 730 CIWS, kashtan, AK-176 clone and 100 mm main gun. I can easily argue that we have seen a several fold increase in the capability of PLAN.
So, I'd like to go through the current PLAN projects and do a rough estimation on what PLAN will look like in the middle of 2012 (so, 5 years from now). First we can start with major surface combatants. It's my opinion that we will see many 054 series frigates coming out in the next few years to keep HD and HP busy. At the same time, the 052 series destroyers will finally reach the end of prototyping and settle with a mass production design like what we have seen with 054A. First, a projection on the number of frigates in PLAN.
From 054, we see it takes about 1 year and half to go from launching to commissioning. If that's the case, then the first 054A will coming int the first half of 2008. If we go by the current launching rate, we are seeing about 4 054A per 6 months. I personally think that's a little extreme, so let's just say it will end up being around 5-6 054As per year.
In 4 years time, we can get 20-24 054A/successor. It's been projected on Chinese forum that China will build 20+ 054s to replace the jianghu class frigates. So by 2012, we should have about enough 054s to do that. Including the Jiangweis, PLAN should have around 25 054 series frigate and 14 Jiangwei class. Possibly, PLAN will have a design for a newer class of frigate by this time as the next generation frigate or maybe they will no longer procure frigates. Anyhow, you are likely to have 40 frigates with more than half of that quite modern.
The next part is the destroyers. The golden question at this point is whether or not 051C's succesor will get built. I have a feeling Dalian will get a few more orders to keep itself busy. With the military construction dock of Changxing (relocated JN) ready to go, we can expect 052D construction to start this or the next year imo. Which means we can see the first commissioning happen in the beginning of 2010. With the larger, newer shipyard, JN should be able to handle 2 to 4 052Ds per year (previously, it launched 2 052C in 2003 and 2 052B in 2002). That would suggest 5 to 10 052Ds by 2012. As for Dalian, if we go by the slow construction speed of 051C, I'd imagine that it would have anywhere from 0 to 4 051D. So, we can probably expect a destroyer force with 1 051B, 2 052, 2 051C, 2 052B, 2 052C, 8 052D, 2 051D. This would give PLAN almost 20 relatively modern destroyer. At this point, I think 051/052 series will be finished. PLAN will probably move onto something to try to match the performance of DD(X).
The other known part of the surface fleet is the FAC. Looking into several shipyards recent days, we have most likely 20+ 022s in various stage of production in these shipyards. With the current production rate, producing the 100 units needed to replace all of the 021/024s in 5 years seem to not be a problem. So, I would anticipate 100 022s.
Finally, there is the corvette/OPV class. 037 class has been around for a long time and will probably see a successor in the next 5 year. It's hard to speculate what it will look like or how many there will be at this point.
alwaysfresh
New Member
Interesting summary of the Growth of PLAN. I would like to understand the growth even better by comparing PLAN to USN in 2006 and in future projects in 2007. My military knowledge is not that great so I have a question:
Questions:
How does the PLAN compare with USN:
(1) 2006 projects and,
(2) 2007's future military projects of both countries?
Areas of Interest:
i) Future Projects and Current Developments
ii) Military Missions, Military Exercises, Potential Conflicts
iii) Partnerships Projects with other nations
Tphuang's growth seems too fast for me. Over 20 frigates in just 4 years? With the project just started? I would think there would be further improvements, with a new sub-variant starting production in the next 5 years. Until then, that's 2012, I would imagine 12-16 more frigates accepted into plan service, with couple more building. Basically, what we're seeing now with 54A can't be taken as fundation for future's build pace.
Also, i'm not sure type 022 will ever reach 100. They may be building them quickly but there is a limit, after which more ships are just not an efficient investment. My gut feeling is telling me that figure is more around 60 pieces. 022 is something that would never have been built without potential taiwan crisis.
As for destroyers... there will definitely have to be a type PLAN will settle on and produce in larger numbers. Some new variant of 52C seems likely to be just that. 6-10 pieces till 2012 seems possible for me.
What is very important is submarines. I do hope enough money will be spent (taken from other programs if needed, like the aircraft carrier) to built, train and maintain a sizable nuke sub fleet. I'm talking 6 SSBNs and 12 SSNs. Of course, for something like that one'd need a decade, if not more. Realistically, by 2012, i think we could expect to see 2 094 subs in service, plus 3-5 093s.
If i remember correctly, US is trying to build 2 virgina SSNs per year, 1-2 Burke's per year, and several LCS ships per year, once that starts - probably in a few years. Of course, there's also a new carrier every 3-4 years.
New projects would include ddg-100 destroyer, a class of ship USN didn't have for some time. Though, some are saying USN doesn't need it anyway... so it may turn out to be a very small production of just a couple of units. Should come online by 2015. Next, there's a need to replace Ticos, with a ship that might draw heavily from the ddg-1000 tech. After that, there's burke replacement left, but that's further out in the future, probably not before 2025.
Also, i'm not sure type 022 will ever reach 100. They may be building them quickly but there is a limit, after which more ships are just not an efficient investment. My gut feeling is telling me that figure is more around 60 pieces. 022 is something that would never have been built without potential taiwan crisis.
As for destroyers... there will definitely have to be a type PLAN will settle on and produce in larger numbers. Some new variant of 52C seems likely to be just that. 6-10 pieces till 2012 seems possible for me.
What is very important is submarines. I do hope enough money will be spent (taken from other programs if needed, like the aircraft carrier) to built, train and maintain a sizable nuke sub fleet. I'm talking 6 SSBNs and 12 SSNs. Of course, for something like that one'd need a decade, if not more. Realistically, by 2012, i think we could expect to see 2 094 subs in service, plus 3-5 093s.
If i remember correctly, US is trying to build 2 virgina SSNs per year, 1-2 Burke's per year, and several LCS ships per year, once that starts - probably in a few years. Of course, there's also a new carrier every 3-4 years.
New projects would include ddg-100 destroyer, a class of ship USN didn't have for some time. Though, some are saying USN doesn't need it anyway... so it may turn out to be a very small production of just a couple of units. Should come online by 2015. Next, there's a need to replace Ticos, with a ship that might draw heavily from the ddg-1000 tech. After that, there's burke replacement left, but that's further out in the future, probably not before 2025.
Well, we will just have to agree to disagree then.
As I continue, the next area I want to look at is submarine and ASW capability.
Starting off at SSN, it seems that they current have 2 093s in service and 3 improved 091s. Looking at their past production rate, they probably will have 4 to 5 by 2012. And how many more they get after that really depends on the progress of the 095 project. Even though building a powerful SSN force is probably more important than building 25 054As, I'm not really sure how Huludao shipyard can possibly build SSN at the same fast speed and high quality as the Shanghai shipyard. But of course, due to the excessive secrecy of PLAN, they will not build it in anymore open place.
As for SSBN, assuming that we have the 1 094 and 1 improved 092 right now, they probably will build 1 or 2 more by 2012.
Now, we can move on to the area more well known -> diesel subs. As of now, PLAN has imported 12 Kilos from Russia and built around 14 Songs and 1-2 Yuan. By the time they finally decide to actually mass produce Yuan (which is essentially just a modified Song), I believe they can continue the rate of 3 to 4 per year if both JN and Wuhan shipyard are working on it. It shouldn't be a stretch to expect around 10 Yuan submarine by 2012. And, we can expect a new generation of SSK in development and probably a new one getting launched by 2012.
As for ASW capability, this seems to be one area where PLAN will still have problems. The main problem is that they still won't have a good organic helicopter. Z-15 and the new 10 tonne helicopter simply won't be ready in a naval role until 2015. It seems that PLAN are doing a good job of using COTS products for sonar. They do have different types of sonar, but the question is how willing are they to put these on different ships. Finally, one area they seem to be not doing as well are torpedo. They've been working on different Yu-6 and Yu-4 torpedo, but not much news of success has come out. On top of this, they don't seem to have any ASROC type missiles in development. So, while it does seem like sonar technology is improving, the deficiency in torpedo and naval helicopter will leave ASW a problem for PLAN for years to come.
As I continue, the next area I want to look at is submarine and ASW capability.
Starting off at SSN, it seems that they current have 2 093s in service and 3 improved 091s. Looking at their past production rate, they probably will have 4 to 5 by 2012. And how many more they get after that really depends on the progress of the 095 project. Even though building a powerful SSN force is probably more important than building 25 054As, I'm not really sure how Huludao shipyard can possibly build SSN at the same fast speed and high quality as the Shanghai shipyard. But of course, due to the excessive secrecy of PLAN, they will not build it in anymore open place.
As for SSBN, assuming that we have the 1 094 and 1 improved 092 right now, they probably will build 1 or 2 more by 2012.
Now, we can move on to the area more well known -> diesel subs. As of now, PLAN has imported 12 Kilos from Russia and built around 14 Songs and 1-2 Yuan. By the time they finally decide to actually mass produce Yuan (which is essentially just a modified Song), I believe they can continue the rate of 3 to 4 per year if both JN and Wuhan shipyard are working on it. It shouldn't be a stretch to expect around 10 Yuan submarine by 2012. And, we can expect a new generation of SSK in development and probably a new one getting launched by 2012.
As for ASW capability, this seems to be one area where PLAN will still have problems. The main problem is that they still won't have a good organic helicopter. Z-15 and the new 10 tonne helicopter simply won't be ready in a naval role until 2015. It seems that PLAN are doing a good job of using COTS products for sonar. They do have different types of sonar, but the question is how willing are they to put these on different ships. Finally, one area they seem to be not doing as well are torpedo. They've been working on different Yu-6 and Yu-4 torpedo, but not much news of success has come out. On top of this, they don't seem to have any ASROC type missiles in development. So, while it does seem like sonar technology is improving, the deficiency in torpedo and naval helicopter will leave ASW a problem for PLAN for years to come.
FugitiveVisions
Junior Member
If the PLAN is serious about winning a war in the Taiwan Strait, come up with a force of 50 anti-ship ballistic missiles by 2015. It would be more instrumental in winning the war than any other asset.
Of course we can agree to disagree. 
Anyhow, I am not so sure Yuan is just a modified Song. I guess it depends on one's understanding of the term 'modified'. To me, Yuan has a radically different hullform from which then size and volume differ, as well. I woul think there is still no ramp up in Yuan production exactly because it's not just a simple modification of the design, but a new design.
Anyhow, I am not so sure Yuan is just a modified Song. I guess it depends on one's understanding of the term 'modified'. To me, Yuan has a radically different hullform from which then size and volume differ, as well. I woul think there is still no ramp up in Yuan production exactly because it's not just a simple modification of the design, but a new design.
I believe the production figures on the 054A frigates will be close to being correct. The PLAN already tested the first two type 054s and came up with the succcessor and is now mass producing them. Two already out and two more almost complete with a fifth already started. That has happened in a relatively short time frame. I believe in the next five years they will have 20 of the newer design with the original two also in service.
On the destroyers you forgot to add the 4 Sovs to the total. So, there will be a total of something close to 24 modern destroyers in the PLAN inventory.
I believe the Type 22 FACs will reach something close to 100. I believe there are already well over 20 launched and they continue to build them at a rapid rate.
I also believe there will be more Type 071 LPDs, although predicting how many is difficult. After trials, if the PLAN likes the design, I would expect another 3-5 vessels to be built.
Subs will continue to be produced. They are critical for the PLAN overall strategy. I expect to see another 12-16 new subs built with a miix of some Songs, 093, 094 and Yuan or its successor.
Finally, I also believe in this time frame that the PLAN will launch and have the Varyag in full trials and that another, indigenous carrier will be being built.
Just my opinion.
I think theoretically, the PLAN does have the capability to build sufficient numbers of 054A's and 052?'s to replace the old Luda and Jianghu class ships on one-on-one basis by 2015 if they really wanted to. But they'd most likely build less. As technology moves forward, it makes little sense to mass produce obsolete models.
I'd like to see the PLAN move toward modular designs and multi-use VLS systems. The current generation of "new" or "modern" PLAN ships that we've seen is not there yet.
I'd like to see the PLAN move toward modular designs and multi-use VLS systems. The current generation of "new" or "modern" PLAN ships that we've seen is not there yet.
I don't think china has intention to fight against US or some other strong powers. Though there some voice of extrmism,mostly younger people,but politics is politics. Those authorities won't be so irrational to provoke a war against the US -the sole superpower in the world. But it is true that they need to protect their own resources and transport lanes,especially when china has a vast oceanic territory which is resource abundant. The capability to reach an area far from main land to claim their sovereignty will be their intention to build a CV group.
Though, a war between China and US probably will break out if TaiWan declare its independence with support of US and china wants to stop it. Apparently this will not happen, because US won't allow Taiwan to do so,.And US doesn't want to fight with china though it dosen't fear that. Destruction of the relationship between them benefits none.
So US doesn't have to be suspicious to china's CV plan. I guess within 10 years china will not be able to build a CV that can compete with the most currently obsolete one .
Though, a war between China and US probably will break out if TaiWan declare its independence with support of US and china wants to stop it. Apparently this will not happen, because US won't allow Taiwan to do so,.And US doesn't want to fight with china though it dosen't fear that. Destruction of the relationship between them benefits none.
So US doesn't have to be suspicious to china's CV plan. I guess within 10 years china will not be able to build a CV that can compete with the most currently obsolete one .