Going domestic is of course worthwhile, though somewhat difficult regarding the navalized version. I think the strengthening of the structure is better achieved by designing a new frame then applying it to an existing one. But then, that's not all that easy and China has no experience in it since they haven't developed an Navy fighter (carrier capable) yet and it may take time. On the other hand with Varyag going along rather well, having carrier capable fighters for training may become time crucial to China. And here come's Russia into play. I don't believe they will only sell 2-3 planes to give China the ability to reverse engeneer them and then build them domesticly. Rather make a big deal to earn some mony on the russian side.
And then China can try it on a fully indigenous frame like the J-10.
I agree with that. Russia isn't going to be foolish and sell 2 or 3 planes for the Chinese to copy. They do know that China will inevitably perfect their own naval J-11 but in the meantime with the window of opportunity, they will plan to cash big on it.
They will go for the whole banana I am sure.
Furthermore, in order to get RD-93 for the Pakistanis, China might be inclined to order more rather than less from the Russians as part of the bargaining chips. I am not seeing 2 but 50 Su-33s and then some---China might end up buying more Russian engines, and even Flankers like Su-35 or Su-30 upgrades in order to finally force the Russians to concede the RD-93 engine issue.
I also agree it is better to start with a new airframe than to modify one. In my perspective, the Su-33 itself is far from perfect, and the Su-33UB is a newer design with structural changes including more composite and added wing area, all denoting refinement from the experience of the previous Su-33 version. The Su-33KK which I assume will be the designation for the Chinese planes, will have to incorporate refinements and hindsight experiences, and so it will be different from the original Su-33.
Lastly, if China builds navalized Su-33, the quantities may not be enough to justify the development costs. In order to lower the cost, the only concievable way is to make the new airframe standard not just for navalized J-11s but for all J-11s. Kind of like the F-18 still uses its navalized airframe even for squadrons and countries that don't use carriers.
As much as one can respect the Chinese determination to be self reliant, one cannot underestimate the extent the goverment will do to achieve geopolitcal aims, such as cementing relationships with Pakistan and Russia.
