China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread

[luhai]

In July 2012, he notes, the Chinese tested an intermediate-range DF-25 missile, which Russia carefully tracked.

DF-25??? Fantasy project from the 1990s making a comeback? Most of the pictures used to represent the DF-25 online are actually DF-21Cs...

PRC has never disclosed how many warheads they have, but they said that PRC's arsenal is smallest among the P5 countries, that would mean less than 200 warheads in active service. It seems to hurt of internet egos that PRC does not posses thousands of nuclear weapons.

China doesn't not want to be drawn into START treaty like arms control talks with the inspector etc, for obvious reasons. If China does come out and say I have 2000 nukes, I bet you China will be forced into a START treaty in the next round. And like Japan in the Washington Treaty, China will get a low number for allowed nuke weapons and open to inspections. Thus it's makes a lot of sense to say I don't have lots of nukes, but you don't wonna bet on it.


There is already talk of getting China into arms talks...

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[kroko]

Does anyone here has images of CZ-11 ??

I have read that it will have china´s most powerful solid fuel engine, and that it resembles an ICBM. i wonder if it will be based on DF-31a or even something bigger...

Here is an indication that CZ-11 may be a space rocket version of DF-31a. According to the image of CZ-11 presented in this forum, CZ-11 is near 20 meters long. Now, this is an article about the north korean KN-08 ICBM mockup seen in a pyongyang military parade:

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According to the article, KN-08 measures more than 17 meters long. Taking into account that the TEL is similar to the recent ones seen in china transporting DF-31a (in fact i think that the KN-08 mockup is similar to DF-31a. Compare the photos) one can assume that DF-31a will measure about the same length, which puts it right in the range of CZ-11.

In fact, CZ-11 is very similar in shape to DF-31a.

The question is: does this means that DF-31a production will be affected by the production of CZ-11?

 

[balance]

I find Kerry's overture is somewhat patronizing and condescending. If you do your job on North Korea, we are going to move our missile defense so that you don't have to be nervous about our military presence.

To me, it seems that:
1. Kerry makes a thinly-disguise threat to China
2. Kerry seems to imply that Chinese missiles will not be able to penetrate through US's most advanced ABM defense

My question is: is he ignorant, getting old, stupid, or all of the above? Or, maybe he is right, and most of us here in SDF are either blind or ignorant.

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I would like to know your thoughts on his overture. Thanks guys.

 

[Schumacher]

I find Kerry's overture is somewhat patronizing and condescending. If you do your job on North Korea, we are going to move our missile defense so that you don't have to be nervous about our military presence.

To me, it seems that:
1. Kerry makes a thinly-disguise threat to China
2. Kerry seems to imply that Chinese missiles will not be able to penetrate through US's most advanced ABM defense

My question is: is he ignorant, getting old, stupid, or all of the above? Or, maybe he is right, and most of us here in SDF are either blind or ignorant.

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I would like to know your thoughts on his overture. Thanks guys.

Of course it's meant to be a threat, people make threats in negotiations to get what they want all the time. What's important is what they do, not what they threaten to do.
I always say there's no such thing as a lack of excuse in international politics, only lack of capabilities. If they are confident of their ABM tech vs China, they would have deployed it regardless of the NK situation.

 

[luhai]

Of course it's meant to be a threat, people make threats in negotiations to get what they want all the time. What's important is what they do, not what they threaten to do.
I always say there's no such thing as a lack of excuse in international politics, only lack of capabilities. If they are confident of their ABM tech vs China, they would have deployed it regardless of the NK situation.

But threats often backfire, for example ABM in Poland got a nasty reaction from Russia. I just don't see China capitulates in this situation, considering everything else that's going on with Pivot to Asia. If anything, this will give the hawks even more influence in China and move the situation in a direction that no one wants to go.

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The remarks by Zhang Liangui, a professor of international strategic research at the Communist Party's Central Party School, came as mainland travel agencies cancelled tours to North Korea.

"There is a 70 to 80 per cent chance that a war will happen because North Korean leader Kim Jong-un may want to use this opportunity to force a reunification of the Korean Peninsula," Zhang said.

 

[Equation]

But threats often backfire, for example ABM in Poland got a nasty reaction from Russia. I just don't see China capitulates in this situation, considering everything else that's going on with Pivot to Asia. If anything, this will give the hawks even more influence in China and move the situation in a direction that no one wants to go.

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The only "wars" that's going on right now in the Korean peninsula are rhetoric's and political drama as the two sides are jockeying for position before the next meeting and talks.

 

[luhai]

The only "wars" that's going on right now in the Korean peninsula are rhetoric's and political drama as the two sides are jockeying for position before the next meeting and talks.

I recommend you to read "Cataclysm: The First World War as Political Tragedy" and "One Minute to Midnight: Kennedy, Khrushchev, and Castro on the Brink of Nuclear War", sometimes things goes beyond what either side can control or want to go as they are jockeying for position before the next meeting and talks with the expectation that the other side will back down because my obvious superior assets and capabilities.

During July Crisis few expected it is actually the road to war, but it did bring the cataclysm that ended European domination of the entire world. Pivot to Asia and recent rhetorics against China have turned things really toxic, and you just can't take any chances.

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[Equation]

I recommend you to read "Cataclysm: The First World War as Political Tragedy" and "One Minute to Midnight: Kennedy, Khrushchev, and Castro on the Brink of Nuclear War", sometimes things goes beyond what either side can control or want to go as they are jockeying for position before the next meeting and talks with the expectation that the other side will back down because my obvious superior assets and capabilities.

During July Crisis few expected it is actually the road to war, but it did bring the cataclysm that ended European domination of the entire world. Pivot to Asia and recent rhetorics against China have turned things really toxic, and you just can't take any chances.

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True, but he Europeans were major players in world power back then and the powder keg has already been lit when Germany, UK, France, and Russia were competing with each other by colonizing as many third world countries as possible. The two Koreans we see right now are obviously smaller players that can have a catastrophic incident but I doubt it. The two side has their elites enjoying too much power to risk losing it all again by continuing the Korean war.

 

[luhai]

True, but he Europeans were major players in world power back then and the powder keg has already been lit when Germany, UK, France, and Russia were competing with each other by colonizing as many third world countries as possible. The two Koreans we see right now are obviously smaller players that can have a catastrophic incident but I doubt it. The two side has their elites enjoying too much power to risk losing it all again by continuing the Korean war.

Korean Peninsula is like the Bulkans in WWI, it may be where is starts, but it's not the main theater of War.

[video=youtube;ECDQfNaka7Y]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ECDQfNaka7Y[/video]
As stupid as this TV program is, but pundits talk of bombing Beijing, attacking Dalian, Qiangdao, Tianjin, Shanghai etc is no longer taboo after the pivot to Asia.. Said development, really. Which is why the Chinese leadership really needs to thing about what creditable deterrence is, real hard and act quickly.

 

[Broccoli]

Here is an indication that CZ-11 may be a space rocket version of DF-31a. According to the image of CZ-11 presented in this forum, CZ-11 is near 20 meters long. Now, this is an article about the north korean KN-08 ICBM mockup seen in a pyongyang military parade:

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According to the article, KN-08 measures more than 17 meters long. Taking into account that the TEL is similar to the recent ones seen in china transporting DF-31a (in fact i think that the KN-08 mockup is similar to DF-31a. Compare the photos) one can assume that DF-31a will measure about the same length, which puts it right in the range of CZ-11.

In fact, CZ-11 is very similar in shape to DF-31a.

The question is: does this means that DF-31a production will be affected by the production of CZ-11?

DF-31 (CSS-10 Mod 1) 7200km+ range

DF-31A (CSS-10 Mod 2) 11,270km+ range.

DF-31 series missiles are hauled around in 16 meter long canisters and that means both missile have length of 15,5 meters. Biggest difference is that DF-31A has payload shroud covering the RV, bigger bus, and diameter wise larger third stage.