China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread
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escobar
Brigadier
maximum range of more than 11,200 km...
Broccoli
Senior Member
Penaids usually include chaff, balloons, and hard decoys what simulate RV's. All those things are commonly known "penaids" because they confuse enemy ABM systems and help RV to penetrate enemy defenses.
PRC has never disclosed how many warheads they have, but they said that PRC's arsenal is smallest among the P5 countries, that would mean less than 200 warheads in active service. It seems to hurt of internet egos that PRC does not posses thousands of nuclear weapons.
This is from 2004 and it has not changed in 2013.
Pentagon's 2012 China report stated that PRC has currently 50-75 ICBM's that can reach CONUS.
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How can you be so sure its less than 200? It can be a way of using words. They consider only those used on submarine as the actual warhead number into consideration as the actual active warhead against other 4 countries. It is only in your fantasy that China has less than 200 warhead. If so, Why China bother to build DF-31,DF-31A and JL-2 especially with enlarge size to accomodate MIRV.
USA also lie about the WMD of Iraq and make every other allies to join them to invade Iraq in 2003.
Broccoli
Senior Member
Because there is no evidence that PRC is lying? I have not seen any credible evidence what says that PRC officials are lying. PRC is manufacturing new missiles because they are modernizing their nuclear forces.
What could Pentagon possibly gain from lying that PRC has less nuclear weapons than they do in reality... They don't want to embarrass PRC by telling everyone that PRC leaders are liars? Pentagon is full of PRC agents who are protecting their country? Pentagon wants less money for their ABM project?
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Just because the failure of US intelligent does not mean they have to take Chinese words for words. China nuclear manufacturing plant, silo, mobile ICBM are all tunnel. This is a very huge underground thousands over kilometre network. Until now it is still building and upgrading. It is impossible for US to track and find out any info unless, it has contact with some general.
Why would you naive think US would not want to lie to the US public even they know the number is higher? US is in mountain of debt. Another nuclear arm race is not sustainable for US. US wants to continue project the kind of supremacy over China to public, that kind of "I can wipe u out while you can't hurt me much attitude!" Imagine, suddenly US tells public China had thousands of nuclear warhead and can threaten equality among all major powers.
China real miniature of warhead of MIRV only started in early 90s. If china has less than 200 warhead, you need to include a portion old warhead probably not able to find into MIRV. Then it would be ridiculous why china bother to build 2 type 094 SSBN with 12 silo. And the project continue with new class of Type096 which would likely house 16 silo. Each JL-2 can hold at least 3 MIRV. If china builds 2 type 096 SSBN. That will mean 56 JL-2 and will means it needs 168 nuclear warhead which almost reach your targeted of 200 nuke for china stockpile. Then we still have the DF-31 and DF-31a. Don't tell me china has only 10 combine of DF-31 and DF-31a ICBM.
So now that's why your insist of 200 nuke warhead for china sounds ridiculous.
Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
I am curious where you get the number 200 from? source please Unless US has a satellite that can peered through the 3500 feet of mountain there is no way they can know or predict the Chinese nuclear stockpile. All those number are again based on plutonium production rate of a moutballed plutonium plant in northwest China that Jeffrey Lewis study with the cooperation of ex Chinese nuclear scientist.Regurgitating thousand time
It is kind of odd that China military advanced on all front at blazing speed but somehow it got stuck with 76 warhead since 1980. They must live in dream world. There is no roadblock financially or technologically to augment their nuclear stockpile.
Pentagon has consistently underestimate the Chinese military development there is nothing new here. US has no access whatsoever on the Chinese nuclear establishment since most Chinese nuclear plant are buried inside mountain cave or underground all those number is guestimate and very inaccurate one I would say,
There is no casual link between number of test and nuclear stockpile . China stop testing underground because she try to comply with the ban on nuclear testing in 1996 even if China is not signatory of the ban. Anyway Nuclear bomb design is now better done on the supercomputer than actual trial and error test. They are more precise
Theoretical predictions of NWE based on computer codes and algorithms that have not been compared with experiments may not be accurate, and the details of such experiments are not generally available. Those codes and algorithms which have been validated by experiment usually contain adjustable parameters and are much more reliable predictors of NWE. Such codes are termed "substantiated." Physical simulation provides more confidence in predicting NWE because it does not rely upon the mathematical approximations of codes and algorithms but uses physical phenomena closely related to those produced by a nuclear detonation to test the behavior of real systems. But physical simulation remains "second best" compared to testing against a real nuclear detonation.
Underground testing (UGT) can provide much insight into weapon design, radiation effects (gammas, neutrons, x-rays) on military systems, selected aspects of shock and blast, thermal effects, and source region EMP (SREMP). Countries with limited defense budgets are less likely than the major nuclear powers to have had exhaustive underground testing programs.
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