China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread
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"What I've just told you is the truth."
You are probably right, but you cannot deny that this recent public schizophrenia about the hypersonic missiles smells a lot about scaremongering in order to get more budget.
For the past month we have a daily barrage of such news. It is clear to me that their primary purpose is to ask for more money, and not for having educated discussions about the matter
One thing I notice about forum users here is that nobody suggests detailed plans to deal with contingencies that may arise. Just for a moment, put yourself in the shoes of an American military policy advisor or think tanker who wants to thwart China's future goals and objectives. What policies or actions could the USA take to really, REALLY interfere or block China? What would be a worst case scenario for China?
My own suggestion is that the most damaging set of actions short of actual war against China would be to proliferate nuclear weapons to American allies in east Asia, and set up a military alliance similar to NATO. Hear me out.
Imagine if the US secretly exited the non-proliferation treaty by covertly arming Japan, south Korea, and Taiwan with nuclear submarines. They could do this covertly by cross training submarine crews in Guam, Hawaii, and San Diego. Japan, Korea, and Taiwan already have submarines in service but these crews would need extra training to operate nuclear armed nuclear subs. Then the US, South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan conduct SSBN inert missile launches of Tridents or nuclear armed Tomahawks from fast attack subs. China would see these launches on radar and also be notified shortly ahead of time that there will be missile drills conducted between the first and second island chain, out deep in the pacific.
If China were confronted by such a test with no warning, what would the response be? What actions would/could China take if suddenly Japan, Korea, and Taiwan had survivable second strike nuclear capabilities with hundreds of warheads? It is not out of the question to think that the US might actually do something along these lines, especially now that the new silos in Gansu are being built. Is it out of the question that the USA might respond to Chinas arsenal increase by proliferating nukes among its allies? Or will the USA just do nothing at all while China builds several thousand more warheads over the next decade?
The US has already crossed multiple red lines by sending multiple aircraft with US senators to Taiwan, and announced that there are already dozens of US troops stationed on Taiwan. All of this since June this year. The only two remaining red lines are (1) Nuclear armed Taiwan (2) Public declaration of Independence by Taiwan.
So tell me, how would China respond to such geopolitical actions? I can't think of any actions China could take which would have favorable outcomes for China.
My own suggestion is that the most damaging set of actions short of actual war against China would be to proliferate nuclear weapons to American allies in east Asia, and set up a military alliance similar to NATO. Hear me out.
Imagine if the US secretly exited the non-proliferation treaty by covertly arming Japan, south Korea, and Taiwan with nuclear submarines. They could do this covertly by cross training submarine crews in Guam, Hawaii, and San Diego. Japan, Korea, and Taiwan already have submarines in service but these crews would need extra training to operate nuclear armed nuclear subs. Then the US, South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan conduct SSBN inert missile launches of Tridents or nuclear armed Tomahawks from fast attack subs. China would see these launches on radar and also be notified shortly ahead of time that there will be missile drills conducted between the first and second island chain, out deep in the pacific.
If China were confronted by such a test with no warning, what would the response be? What actions would/could China take if suddenly Japan, Korea, and Taiwan had survivable second strike nuclear capabilities with hundreds of warheads? It is not out of the question to think that the US might actually do something along these lines, especially now that the new silos in Gansu are being built. Is it out of the question that the USA might respond to Chinas arsenal increase by proliferating nukes among its allies? Or will the USA just do nothing at all while China builds several thousand more warheads over the next decade?
The US has already crossed multiple red lines by sending multiple aircraft with US senators to Taiwan, and announced that there are already dozens of US troops stationed on Taiwan. All of this since June this year. The only two remaining red lines are (1) Nuclear armed Taiwan (2) Public declaration of Independence by Taiwan.
So tell me, how would China respond to such geopolitical actions? I can't think of any actions China could take which would have favorable outcomes for China.
Hendrik_2000
Lieutenant General
I don't think so Japan and korea are small countries with no vast hinterland. Just Fukushima accident cause so much damage. imagine a multiple nuclear strike it will be the end of Japan and Korea. China has vast hinterland, mountainous and thousand of underground great wall. Subway system in almost every major cities that double down as civilian bunker in time of war.
Most of Japanese population are concentrated in Kansai area. It will be suicide for Japan to go toe and tow with China.
Another thing I don't think US will arm Japan with nuclear weapon since that will be the end of US protectorate and influence Japan will become independent of US. Are US willing to take the risk? Japan might ally with China ?
There is one way to settle this debate one and for all... lets use an Aussie approximation to the carrier the canberra class
I think US is starting to do so, but not with its sinospheric 'allies'. That's why all the commotion with AUKUS.
Is that a joke? Because the Chinese wrath would make any such US efforts look like one. China could supply DF-41 TELs complete with 10 MIRVs apiece to Iran, the Taliban, Houthis, Venezuela, Bolivia, Cuba, Syria, Hezbollah, and on and on.
Japan, south Korea, and Taiwan all have extremely unfavorable views towards China, like upwards of 70%. I don't think there is really any chance of them taking China's side in the foreseeable future.
Nobody doubts that the PLARF could annihilate any and all neighboring countries with nukes, and the underground great wall and city subways could hold hundreds of thousands of Chinese people underground. But any MAD scenario between China and its neighbors is still a huge loss. There is no nuclear war scenario where anyone ends up better off. In particular, Taiwan having a sizeable nuclear arsenal with launch on warning and second strike capability would not be something China could just overlook in military planning.
The concept of the American nuclear umbrella lacks credibility as China expands its arsenal, the thinking is of course that American presidents would not be willing to risk retaliation even if China nukes Japan or Taiwan first. By keeping Japan, Taiwan and Korea unarmed with nukes, the USA has created its own strategic vulnerability if it intends to defend them. Conversely, by arming them with nukes, the US creates a major dilemma for China.
Clockwork, it may be the case that European countries which lean pro-America (and many other countries) may be willing to look the other way if the USA proliferates nukes to its east Asian allies. But China giving ICBMs to actual jihaddist groups pretty much guarantees they would be used immediately. There is also the difficulty of getting land based large TELs loaded with ICBMs delivered to the groups you listed. It's possible, but I think the USA would be able to get away with proliferation among allies (by that I mean a lack of economic consequences) while China could not arm any of the groups you mentioned without blockades, sanctions, etc. being imposed by the majority of UN member nations. In my opinion, the USA has an asymmetrical advantage by doing this, while China does not.
First off, Nuclear submarines=/= Nuclear Proliferation. Secondly, US foreign policy since the 60s has been the prevention of nuclear proliferation. For everyone, including our allies. We would never give nuclear weapons to someone, they would need to develop them independently, which isn't hard.
They wouldn't necessarily be used immediately. I didn't say give them to ISIS. Point is, the US would be putting its own existence in hideous danger if it ever dared play the nuclear proliferation game, given how many enemies it has.
Iran has no problems supplying its various proxies across land and sea, the actual delivery isn't an issue.
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