China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread

[VioletsForSpring]

That's silly and you seem like a troll. Fissile material production/enrichment and Teller-Ulam miniaturization as well as ICBM technology are all extremely hard. None of the states/groups I listed would "easily" be able to acquire nukes unless China provides them the technology, only for very technologically advanced great powers with a preexisting well-developed civilian nuclear industry like Japan would nuclearization be relatively trivial.

Why would they need ICBMs? A deterrent can exist just by the threat of use, this has been Israel and Pakistan's use theory.

 

[Bob Smith]

As long as the political will exists they can do it. A nuclear threshold state has reasons to pursue nuclear weaponry alongside with the energy generation. Mexico Argentina and Brazil already have nuclear reactors but have no reason to develop nuclear weapons.

You named the big states that might have the capabilities to create them along with a delivery system. How would America feel if Cuba, Venezuela, Peru, Bolivia, and Chile had step by step instructions on how?

 

[VioletsForSpring]

You named the big states that might have the capabilities to create them along with a delivery system. How would America feel if Cuba, Venezuela, Peru, Bolivia, and Chile had step by step instructions on how?

Like adding more sanctions probably, All those countries would have to build up those reactors and fund/hide a weapons program.

 

[VioletsForSpring]

Like adding more sanctions probably, All those countries would have to build up those reactors and fund/hide a weapons program.

And frankly they have no use for them, ie no political will for proliferation

 

[j17wang]

You named the big states that might have the capabilities to create them along with a delivery system. How would America feel if Cuba, Venezuela, Peru, Bolivia, and Chile had step by step instructions on how?

Exact more reason to help these countries deter american aggression. Otherwise america will always be invading poor and defenseless countries.

 

[j17wang]

"Is that a joke? Because the Chinese wrath would make any such US efforts look like one. China could supply DF-41 TELs complete with 10 MIRVs apiece to Iran, the Taliban, Houthis, Venezuela, Bolivia, Cuba, Syria, Hezbollah, and on and on."

These are not all equal. Allies or anti-american states like Turkey and Iran would be much better recipients compared to actual non-state groups. Mexico is another candidate.

 

[gelgoog]

All of those countries (South Korea, Japan, Taiwan) had nuclear programs and are suspected of having covert nuclear weapons programs to some degree. Taiwan started with nuclear power stations and had intent to build nuclear weapons but the US stopped their ambitions back then. South Korea and Japan had enrichment and fuel separation programs, they also have ballistic missile construction capability. South Korea has actual military ballistic missiles and Japan has satellite launch vehicles with solid propellant of the relevant size. Supposedly neither has nuclear weapons but they have the capability to develop nuclear weapons in probably 5 years if they really wanted to.

I would not discount the possibility the US might make a program to share nuclear weapons with South Korea and Japan similar to either the Trident program with the UK or the sharing of air dropped nuclear weapons with Germany.

 

[Richard Santos]

I don't think so Japan and korea are small countries with no vast hinterland. Just Fukushima accident cause so much damage. imagine a multiple nuclear strike it will be the end of Japan and Korea. China has vast hinterland, mountainous and thousand of underground great wall. Subway system in almost every major cities that double down as civilian bunker in time of war.
Most of Japanese population are concentrated in Kansai area. It will be suicide for Japan to go toe and tow with China.

Another thing I don't think US will arm Japan with nuclear weapon since that will be the end of US protectorate and influence Japan will become independent of US. Are US willing to take the risk? Japan might ally with China ?

If Japan decided going nuclear was the correct policy, her existing massive stockpile of fissile material, long and deep nuclear science infrastructure would allow her to break out quickly and build a very large stockpile of several thousand nuclear weapons, larger than the stockpile currently in service with either the US or Russia without any american assistance. Her solid fuelled satellite launch rockets have been described as virtual clones of the decommissioned MX missiles, She would also likely also be able to build her own nuclear powered submarines without out outside Help much sooner than Australia could get her american and British supplied nuclear submarines that were promised as part of Aukus months ago, if indeee Australia ever does developed the ability to support them and then get the actual submarines.

The fact is US may absolutely not wish to be seen arming Japan with nuclear weapons, but there is no doubt the US would be overjoyed if Japan were to decide to nuclearization it’s military today.

the barrier to a nuclear Japan is not the US, it is Japan. But although Japan has not chosen to turn the screw driver the final turn to actually go nuclear, her defence industry, satellite launch industry and civilian nuclear industry policy since the 1970s had clearly been geared towards keep herself just one screw driver turn away a massive break out as a major nuclear weapon power With ready made strategic missile capability.

 

[Maikeru]

If Japan decided going nuclear was the correct policy, her existing massive stockpile of fissile material, long and deep nuclear science infrastructure would allow her to break out quickly and build a very large stockpile of several thousand nuclear weapons, larger than the stockpile currently in service with either the US or Russia without any american assistance. Her solid fuelled satellite launch rockets have been described as virtual clones of the decommissioned MX missiles, She would also likely also be able to build her own nuclear powered submarines without out outside Help much sooner than Australia could get her american and British supplied nuclear submarines that were promised as part of Aukus months ago, if indeee Australia ever does developed the ability to support them and then get the actual submarines.

The fact is US may absolutely not wish to be seen arming Japan with nuclear weapons, but there is no doubt the US would be overjoyed if Japan were to decide to nuclearization it’s military today.

the barrier to a nuclear Japan is not the US, it is Japan. But although Japan has not chosen to turn the screw driver the final turn to actually go nuclear, her defence industry, satellite launch industry and civilian nuclear industry policy since the 1970s had clearly been geared towards keep herself just one screw driver turn away a massive break out as a major nuclear weapon power With ready made strategic missile capability.

Exactly this. Japan could be a major nuclear power tomorrow if it wanted to be, and a major conventional military power within a few years. They have the technology, the industry and the money, all they need is the political will.

 

[VioletsForSpring]

As someone else posted, lets stop talking about this silliness.

Exactly this. Japan could be a major nuclear power tomorrow if it wanted to be, and a major conventional military power within a few years. They have the technology, the industry and the money, all they need is the political will.

They are already a major conventional military power in the maritime domain, the JGSDF gets far less because Japan isn't exactly under threat of invasion.