China Ballistic Missiles and Nuclear Arms Thread

Status
Not open for further replies.

Overbom

Brigadier
Registered Member
So many dreams about nuclear proliferation. Can we go back to topic and something resembling of reality

Because Taiwan getting nuclear weapons from someone and China allowing it is as unrealistic (or more..) than the 20 (and still happening) stories about "China is collapsing. China is doomed"

Back to reality
 

Bob Smith

Junior Member
Registered Member
Japan, south Korea, and Taiwan all have extremely unfavorable views towards China, like upwards of 70%. I don't think there is really any chance of them taking China's side in the foreseeable future.

Nobody doubts that the PLARF could annihilate any and all neighboring countries with nukes, and the underground great wall and city subways could hold hundreds of thousands of Chinese people underground. But any MAD scenario between China and its neighbors is still a huge loss. There is no nuclear war scenario where anyone ends up better off. In particular, Taiwan having a sizeable nuclear arsenal with launch on warning and second strike capability would not be something China could just overlook in military planning.
The concept of the American nuclear umbrella lacks credibility as China expands its arsenal, the thinking is of course that American presidents would not be willing to risk retaliation even if China nukes Japan or Taiwan first. By keeping Japan, Taiwan and Korea unarmed with nukes, the USA has created its own strategic vulnerability if it intends to defend them. Conversely, by arming them with nukes, the US creates a major dilemma for China.



Clockwork, it may be the case that European countries which lean pro-America (and many other countries) may be willing to look the other way if the USA proliferates nukes to its east Asian allies. But China giving ICBMs to actual jihaddist groups pretty much guarantees they would be used immediately. There is also the difficulty of getting land based large TELs loaded with ICBMs delivered to the groups you listed. It's possible, but I think the USA would be able to get away with proliferation among allies (by that I mean a lack of economic consequences) while China could not arm any of the groups you mentioned without blockades, sanctions, etc. being imposed by the majority of UN member nations. In my opinion, the USA has an asymmetrical advantage by doing this, while China does not.
China can leak a step by step instruction manual to produce nuclear weapons and delivery systems on a pdf. They don't have to deliver the actual weapons to any of these entities. If America wants to surround China with nukes, China will make sure every shithole in Latin America knows how to make a nuke and deliver it Washington.
 

VioletsForSpring

New Member
Registered Member
China can leak a step by step instruction manual to produce nuclear weapons and delivery systems on a pdf. They don't have to deliver the actual weapons to any of these entities. If America wants to surround China with nukes, China will make sure every shithole in Latin America knows how to make a nuke and deliver it Washington.
You don't need to do this, nuclear weapons aren't hard. any mid sized state could easily procure and field nuclear weapons if the political will existed. Stop using destabilization rhetoric.
 

Bob Smith

Junior Member
Registered Member
You don't need to do this, nuclear weapons aren't hard. any mid sized state could easily procure and field nuclear weapons if the political will existed. Stop using destabilization rhetoric.
Do you have a source for how easy it is to make a nuclear weapon with a delivery system other than saying "it's 1940s tech"? I don't buy it. Otherwise, a lot more states would be nuclear threshold states. I'm using destabilization rhetoric when I'm responding to a guy talking about proliferating nukes to all of China's neighbors? Ok.
 

VioletsForSpring

New Member
Registered Member
Do you have a source for how easy it is to make a nuclear weapon with a delivery system other than saying "it's 1940s tech"? I don't buy it. Otherwise, a lot more states would be nuclear threshold states. I'm using destabilization rhetoric when I'm responding to a guy talking about proliferating nukes to all of China's neighbors? Ok.
States dont procure nuclear weapons due to immense pressure from the United States. North Korea, Iran and South Africa were heavily sanctioned for a reason.
 

clockwork

Junior Member
Registered Member
You don't need to do this, nuclear weapons aren't hard. any mid sized state could easily procure and field nuclear weapons if the political will existed. Stop using destabilization rhetoric.
That's silly and you seem like a troll. Fissile material production/enrichment and Teller-Ulam miniaturization as well as ICBM technology are all extremely hard. None of the states/groups I listed would "easily" be able to acquire nukes unless China provides them the technology, only for very technologically advanced great powers with a preexisting well-developed civilian nuclear infrastructure like Japan would nuclearization be relatively trivial.
 

VioletsForSpring

New Member
Registered Member
Not proof that it's easy or that these Latin American states are capable of being nuclear threshold states.
As long as the political will exists they can do it. A nuclear threshold state has reasons to pursue nuclear weaponry alongside with the energy generation. Mexico Argentina and Brazil already have nuclear reactors but have no reason to develop nuclear weapons.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Top