Chengdu next gen combat aircraft (?J-36) thread

_killuminati_

Senior Member
Registered Member
Is there a reason why B21 is that expensive? It has two F135-level engines. Using the popular theory in this forum, B21 won't have too much excessive power to drive the electronics and cooling thus sensor sets have to be limited. Then, it is not expected to be supersonic, thus lower requirements on the stealth paint. Yes B21 has a wider wingspan, that alone can't explain the cost
Probably the overall program, R&D and production cost is factored into the unit price. + inflation. B-2 Spirit's RAM was very expensive and labor-intensive, both to produce, maintain and repaint. I suspect it's the same for B-21. Add to it supply chain & logistic issues haven't fully recovered since covid. And the MIC - Boeing, LM, Grumman, etc. - are private entities who must also put a profit margin on the final product, unlike SAC and CAC, both of which are state-owned.

Yes generational numbers mean nothing except when it’s the US that seems ahead of everyone else.

Some other observations noted in these videos…

They’re just RC models tricking everyone…

The J-36 is just a new J-20 variant like what the US did with the F-16XL…

Proof that the J-36 is just another J-20 is because the weapons bays are similar…

Entering the third stage of grief… bargaining.
I'm surprised they haven't yet mentioned the X-36. That one has probably the most similarity (out of anything else they possess) to the Shenyang ngad.
Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!
 

tphuang

Lieutenant General
Staff member
Super Moderator
VIP Professional
Registered Member
Browsing through Reddit LCD forum because I am bored. I saw this post by SFMara which is kind of interesting and counter intuitive to me
I can say without going into too much detail, that the US defense establishment is taking this quite seriously, and some are a bit butt clenched awaiting an even more dramatic H-20 review. There's really a growing consensus talking about merging the NGAD and F/A-XX programs to have a one-size fits all 6th gen F-35, while the long range missile truck role is given to the B-21.

But this may not be the solution adopted if politicians find themselves wedded to the prestige of a full sized NGAD, as the process of trying to retire older F-22s has proven almost insurmountably difficult.
I'd say that having the F/A-XX as the plane to rule them all is the "smart" option being presented by people who are well aware of the logistical limitations now imposed on the pacific theater.

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Please, Log in or Register to view URLs content!

Because the US wants a dispersed basing infrastructure for its air assets now, you are restricted in the size of aircraft you can field. These sorts of airstrips are too austere, if not short, to sustain full sized doritos like a proposed NGAD.

If NGAD moves forward, it is going to be a political decision ordered by congress who are wedded to their F-15 and F-22 pride about having the "best" fighter.

While there is certain logic to this, it seems just a bad idea to build a central controlling manned fighter that isn’t as good as your chief adversary. Smaller aircraft might be able to operate from more austere air bases but they just don’t have the power generation to compete with something like J36. And it would seem to me that if this is what US defense establishment draws up to counter China’s 6th gen, they will be at a huge disadvantage in EW and that is disastrous when it comes to missile attack that can also come from mainland assets.
 

another505

New Member
Registered Member
comment starterpack for these videos:

It's the Mig25 moment for America
NGAD flew in 2020
Their 6th gen is our 4th gen
Needing 3 engines means their engine tech is trash
It looks similar to the RQ170/B2/<insert american aircraft name> which was made 20 years ago so they are still 20 years behind
I don't know what its capabilities are but all I know is that the F22 is better
can't fly fast without losing stealth coatings because china's material tech is trash
6th gen knockoff from wish/temu/aliexpress
the path from the intake to the engine (in CHAD) is straight so it can't hide the engine fans making it less stealthy from the front (ok this one is actually pretty legit and a big concern of mine as well)
whenever someone mentions PLA stuff as wish or temu, I will mention that it is better than boeing and they will shut up.
 

manqiangrexue

Brigadier
Because it isn't just about volume. It is also about mass, and that third engine will consume more fuel, therefore, I will wait for more solid info than guesswork.
It's about way more than volume and/or mass; it's about aircraft design. You simply cannot even come close to calculating the range of an aircraft by using volume and mass projections from a completely different aircraft. J-36 looks like a hybrid between a stealth fighter and hypersonic missile head, so comparing it to a stealth fighter with canards intended to allow it to dogfight an F-22 if all else fails is just not going to yield valuable information on its range. The design is clearly much more dedicated to drag reduction, and energy-efficient high speed gliding than J-20, not to mention that it used and still uses much more advanced resources and knowledge for the initial design and continuous optimization. Even the WS-15 engine it uses when it enters service will be undoubtedly superior to the WS-15 that J-20s use today. Additionally, are there manufacturing technique/material improvements that further reduce the supposed weight of the J-36 over what were used on the J-20? Are there fuel composition improvements throughout the years (this could be minimal in benefits)? Literally everything is a variable and not a constant to allow guessing.
 
Last edited:

Temstar

Brigadier
Registered Member
Browsing through Reddit LCD forum because I am bored. I saw this post by SFMara which is kind of interesting and counter intuitive to me



While there is certain logic to this, it seems just a bad idea to build a central controlling manned fighter that isn’t as good as your chief adversary. Smaller aircraft might be able to operate from more austere air bases but they just don’t have the power generation to compete with something like J36. And it would seem to me that if this is what US defense establishment draws up to counter China’s 6th gen, they will be at a huge disadvantage in EW and that is disastrous when it comes to missile attack that can also come from mainland assets.
I think the point is a lot more money is required to bring either NGAD or F/A-XX to fruition. At the current funding level who knows how long it will take to get one across the line. Merging them and focusing the money into one would accelerate progress. Of course with the navy requirement you won't get a J-36 sized platform, but maybe they want to avoid their own 3 engine design to save face anyway.
 

plawolf

Lieutenant General
Been thinking about this today.

So now that J-36's basic dimension is available for all to see, USAF can pretty much put in some very educated guesses on things like top speed, weapon payload, radar size, power generation, range and stealth.

Since this is US military we are talking about, they will want to make sure NGAD system's mother ship (the manned fighter) will have to have specs that can overcome the challenges posed by J-36. J-36's threat to things like tankers, AEWC&C, aircraft carriers, B-21 and Guam are pretty obvious. Just as an example, if you see the power cooling issues with F-35 and don't want to lose out to J-36 in electronics, then you will obviously need to ensure you have enough interior space and power generation to overcome J-36's power generation. That alone would yield the need for probably even larger aircraft than J-36 that can fly even faster and farther than J-36.

So, it would take imo 2 years to settle on requirement and pick the winner.

It took 5 years for the first F-22 prototype to fly after Lockmart was picked. It took F-15 3 years to do the same. Let's say NGAD moves faster than F-22 and flies 4 years after a winner is picked, that would still mean 2030 for first flight of an actual prototype.

It took 4 years for F-15 to enter service after it flew. It took 8 years for F-22 to enter service after it first flew.

Now given the complexity of today's systems, It's hard for me to see NGAD taking just 4 years to go from first flight to service entrance. As such, I think it achieves IOC after 2035, probably 2037 to 2038 range.

Whereas I think J-36 will be more around 2031 to 2032. That's a huge period where China has obvious generation gap vs rest of the world.

I think you may be underestimating the psychological impact the CHAD will have on American decision makers, and the implications of that on the NGAD’s target performance, which in turn will impact on the price and expected service entry date.

The NGAD, as the name suggests, is meant to dominate the air and restore America’s generational advantage over everyone else in manned fighter aircraft. With the CHAD not only in contention, but actually flying first as a prototype (I firmly believe the much hyped first flight the Americans claimed was little more than another X plane tech demonstrator and not a proper prototype aircraft meant for large scale service), the NGAD won’t dominate so much as merely be competitive. And worse, will likely enter service years after the CHAD.

That means even at this early stage, the NGAD is a day late and dollar short. And I just don’t think American leaders can stomach trillions into a flagship programme just to play catch-up against ‘inferior’ non-whites.

Indeed, western MSM has already previewed the most likely American responses to the CHAD. The first is to ostrich-up and double down on claiming the B21 is their 6th gen. In which case they will likely retrofit the B21 with radars, IRST and other fighter sub systems and shoehorn it into the mothership role. This is especially likely with Elon publicly stating his personal opinion that drones are the future and manned platforms are not that important.

The second is that the NGAD will be re-spec’d since it’s already back at the drawing board to be a generation ahead of what the Americans expect the CHAD to be able to do and actually aim to be the first 7th gen.

In the meantime, US MIC funded think tanks and western MSM will spin the CHAD as a B21-lite wannabe; downplay the expected capabilities of the CHAD and argue 5th to 6th gen is more like a 3rd to 4th gen evolution rather than the 4th to 5th gen leap that the NGAD 7th gen will be.
 

antwerpery

New Member
Registered Member
I have said it before, but there's major implications for all of China's aerospace industry for the two 6th gens. There's so many western videos and articles talking about the two planes as standalones, but none of them realize that insane implications that they have on the boarder picture.

For most of modern history, China has been behind the West in basically all areas of technology, especially in aerospace/aviation. China has been catching up fast in basically every area, basically neck and neck with America in most fields and even slightly exceeding them in others. But catching up is one thing, actually surpassing America in a meaningful way, especially in such a complicated field like aerospace that China has always struggled with is another thing entirely. I was always kind of scared that China would catch up with America and just kind of plateau, keeping pace with America with incremental improvements but too scared/conservative to actually take a big step forward without someone taking the first step. I'm glad to have been proven wrong.

This has applies to all of China of course, this shows that the chinese people and chinese companies are willing to actually embrace radical new designs and revolutionary new technology and that the central government is daring enough to actually fund said projects, even to the tune of the how many tens of billions it probably will take for the development of the two new 6th gen planes. This has major implications for every new project undertaken by China in the future and not just in aerospace, maybe it's not impossible to see the next generation destroyer with a heavy focus on laser weapons or nuclear submarines or nuclear carriers with molten salt/liquid metal nuclear reactors instead of the traditional pressured water reactor in the near future.

The pace is also insane. Compared to America's decades of flying stealth planes and their very mature aerospace industry, China is moving very very fast. A decade ago the J-20 wasn't even in active service yet and yet here we have the 6th gen prototypes already flying. America on the other hand, has been sitting on the F-22 for decades, and the F-35 has had some serious developmental issues and delays and it looks like the NGAD looks set to continue that trend. I'm not sure how Chengdu and Shenyang is doing it, be it good leadership, a clear goal, good computer modeling program assisted by an insane amount of supercomputing, all those wind tunnels finally paying off or they are throwing an insane amount of money and engineers at the problem. But however they are doing it, hopefully it spreads to the rest of the chinese aerospace sector and beyond. Of course this speed will apply to other future projects as well, whatever new drones/CCAs are in development, future upgrades for the J-36/J-50, and of course upgrades to the existing 4th/5th gen fleets.

Also random tangent here, but China is doing all of this with a immature commerical aerospace and aviation sector. One reason why America has always had such an advanced and large air force is because they have always dominated commerical aviation. Both the American civilan and military sectors supported each other in a virtuous cycle much like how Chinese commerical shipbuilding sector and the Chinese navy is supporting each other. All this insane pace of innovation and development China is doing, it's with a commerical aviation and aerospace sector that isn't contributing much as compared to their American counterparts. By the 2030s, which will also be around the time that this new planes enter service, China should have a relatively mature commerical aerospace sector that will be paying dividends in R&D, generating money and in training skilled engineers and scientists. It will be interesting to see how much faster Chinese development can go when they can leverage a large and mature commerical aviation/aerospace sector like how America does.
 

Jason_

Junior Member
Registered Member
Part 4: As chief designer Wang Haifeng said, EW will be a key feature for 6th generation. Here I do some back of the envelope calculation on how EW will degrade US attempts at BMD and explain why speed and altitude will keep the J-36 survivable where the B-21 cannot.
ANALYSIS4.001.jpeg
The one hundred trillion times (-140dB) is a bit of an extreme case (i.e. 1500km detection againt a -20dBsm RV). Things improve a bit to "only" ten billion times (-100dB) when the RV is at 150km.

Previous infographics on the J-36:
Definition of 6th gen and possible J-36 missions
Concepts of PLAAF air superiority oriented combat drones
J-36 in OCA (will be updated to include drones)
J-36 in DCA (updated with drones)
J-36 tactics vs B-21
 
Last edited:

kurutoga

Junior Member
Registered Member
I think you may be underestimating the psychological impact the CHAD will have on American decision makers, and the implications of that on the NGAD’s target performance, which in turn will impact on the price and expected service entry date.

The NGAD, as the name suggests, is meant to dominate the air and restore America’s generational advantage over everyone else in manned fighter aircraft. With the CHAD not only in contention, but actually flying first as a prototype (I firmly believe the much hyped first flight the Americans claimed was little more than another X plane tech demonstrator and not a proper prototype aircraft meant for large scale service), the NGAD won’t dominate so much as merely be competitive. And worse, will likely enter service years after the CHAD.

That means even at this early stage, the NGAD is a day late and dollar short. And I just don’t think American leaders can stomach trillions into a flagship programme just to play catch-up against ‘inferior’ non-whites.

Indeed, western MSM has already previewed the most likely American responses to the CHAD. The first is to ostrich-up and double down on claiming the B21 is their 6th gen. In which case they will likely retrofit the B21 with radars, IRST and other fighter sub systems and shoehorn it into the mothership role. This is especially likely with Elon publicly stating his personal opinion that drones are the future and manned platforms are not that important.

The second is that the NGAD will be re-spec’d since it’s already back at the drawing board to be a generation ahead of what the Americans expect the CHAD to be able to do and actually aim to be the first 7th gen.

In the meantime, US MIC funded think tanks and western MSM will spin the CHAD as a B21-lite wannabe; downplay the expected capabilities of the CHAD and argue 5th to 6th gen is more like a 3rd to 4th gen evolution rather than the 4th to 5th gen leap that the NGAD 7th gen will be.

The US hegemony, and the entire Western cultural dominance, rests on the US military. And the US military power is hinged on the acquisition of air superiority.

I do not expect the US gov to act totally rationally in this situation.
 
Top