Chengdu next gen combat aircraft (?J-36) thread

[iewgnem]

I think you may be underestimating the psychological impact the CHAD will have on American decision makers, and the implications of that on the NGAD’s target performance, which in turn will impact on the price and expected service entry date.

The NGAD, as the name suggests, is meant to dominate the air and restore America’s generational advantage over everyone else in manned fighter aircraft. With the CHAD not only in contention, but actually flying first as a prototype (I firmly believe the much hyped first flight the Americans claimed was little more than another X plane tech demonstrator and not a proper prototype aircraft meant for large scale service), the NGAD won’t dominate so much as merely be competitive. And worse, will likely enter service years after the CHAD.

That means even at this early stage, the NGAD is a day late and dollar short. And I just don’t think American leaders can stomach trillions into a flagship programme just to play catch-up against ‘inferior’ non-whites.

Indeed, western MSM has already previewed the most likely American responses to the CHAD. The first is to ostrich-up and double down on claiming the B21 is their 6th gen. In which case they will likely retrofit the B21 with radars, IRST and other fighter sub systems and shoehorn it into the mothership role. This is especially likely with Elon publicly stating his personal opinion that drones are the future and manned platforms are not that important.

The second is that the NGAD will be re-spec’d since it’s already back at the drawing board to be a generation ahead of what the Americans expect the CHAD to be able to do and actually aim to be the first 7th gen.

In the meantime, US MIC funded think tanks and western MSM will spin the CHAD as a B21-lite wannabe; downplay the expected capabilities of the CHAD and argue 5th to 6th gen is more like a 3rd to 4th gen evolution rather than the 4th to 5th gen leap that the NGAD 7th gen will be.

You're probably right, Americans do love their worst of both worlds solutions, if they actually try to retrofit B-21 into NGAD, starting from what's already an $800M platform, it means B-21 is guaranteed to fail and US will end up with no NGAD and no B-21.

If you look at all the options available to the US, their (in)ability to afford them and amount of time they need, I think we're actually looking at with high level of probability that United States has permanently lost their airpower advantage.

 

[Blitzo]

You're probably right, Americans do love their worst of both worlds solutions, if they actually try to retrofit B-21 into NGAD, starting from what's already an $800M platform, it means B-21 is guaranteed to fail and US will end up with no NGAD and no B-21.

If you look at all the options available to the US, their (in)ability to afford them and amount of time they need, I think we're actually looking at with high level of probability that United States has permanently lost their airpower advantage.

I think this is all extrapolating it out way too far.

The emergence of J-36 and SAC's jet both are indicative of genuine, thorough competition now being underway, it is an impressive round that's been put forward yes, but the idea that there is a "high probability" that the US has "permanently lost their airpower advantage" is a rather large and comprehensive statement that is too bold and difficult to back up if one put it forward to a neutral observer.


What we can say is that genuine competition is afoot, which by itself is something the US has not had to contend with for a long time.

 

[tphuang]

I think you may be underestimating the psychological impact the CHAD will have on American decision makers, and the implications of that on the NGAD’s target performance, which in turn will impact on the price and expected service entry date.

The NGAD, as the name suggests, is meant to dominate the air and restore America’s generational advantage over everyone else in manned fighter aircraft. With the CHAD not only in contention, but actually flying first as a prototype (I firmly believe the much hyped first flight the Americans claimed was little more than another X plane tech demonstrator and not a proper prototype aircraft meant for large scale service), the NGAD won’t dominate so much as merely be competitive. And worse, will likely enter service years after the CHAD.

That means even at this early stage, the NGAD is a day late and dollar short. And I just don’t think American leaders can stomach trillions into a flagship programme just to play catch-up against ‘inferior’ non-whites.

Indeed, western MSM has already previewed the most likely American responses to the CHAD. The first is to ostrich-up and double down on claiming the B21 is their 6th gen. In which case they will likely retrofit the B21 with radars, IRST and other fighter sub systems and shoehorn it into the mothership role. This is especially likely with Elon publicly stating his personal opinion that drones are the future and manned platforms are not that important.

The second is that the NGAD will be re-spec’d since it’s already back at the drawing board to be a generation ahead of what the Americans expect the CHAD to be able to do and actually aim to be the first 7th gen.

In the meantime, US MIC funded think tanks and western MSM will spin the CHAD as a B21-lite wannabe; downplay the expected capabilities of the CHAD and argue 5th to 6th gen is more like a 3rd to 4th gen evolution rather than the 4th to 5th gen leap that the NGAD 7th gen will be.

I am not sure where we are disagreeing. I am expecting NGAD specs to go up rather than using naval constraints.

My question is why this guy would think congress would allow for them to chase a less capable design just so that it can disperse in small islands.

@Blitzo does he seem to be a pretty informed source? His view seems to run contrary to my expectations.

 

[Blitzo]

I am not sure where we are disagreeing. I am expecting NGAD specs to go up rather than using naval constraints.

My question is why this guy would think congress would allow for them to chase a less capable design just so that it can disperse in small islands.

@Blitzo does he seem to be a pretty informed source? His view seems to run contrary to my expectations.

If you are talking about that person from Reddit, I am not sure who they are.

I also think there's no need to read to speculate too much about how the US may respond to J-36 or how NGAD may change -- we will know all that in time. I don't think this thread should occupy too much time or focus on NGAD, F/A-XX or other US efforts


As for the US being aware of J-36 itself, it is not inherently a surprise to elements of the US who know what they're paying attention to (cough cough)

 

[iewgnem]

I think this is all extrapolating it out way too far.

The emergence of J-36 and SAC's jet both are indicative of genuine, thorough competition now being underway, it is an impressive round that's been put forward yes, but the idea that there is a "high probability" that the US has "permanently lost their airpower advantage" is a rather large and comprehensive statement that is too bold and difficult to back up if one put it forward to a neutral observer.


What we can say is that genuine competition is afoot, which by itself is something the US has not had to contend with for a long time.

If NGAD and F/A-XX are on track and simply late, then there is competition
Fact is US can't afford just NGAD let along both, and the NGAD they can't afford isn't even competitive with J-36, let along both CAC and SAC

It used to be that US started the race early but China runs faster, but we're now at a point where China is both ahead and runs faster.
This is just objective observation that given US' current and future conditions, they do not have any options available to them that will allow them to catch up to China's lead in both manned and unmanned airpower.

 

[Blitzo]

If NGAD and F/A-XX are on track and simply late, then there is competition
Fact is US can't afford just NGAD let along both, and the NGAD they can't afford isn't even competitive with J-36, let along both CAC and SAC

It used to be that US started the race early but China runs faster, but we're now at a point where China is both ahead and runs faster.
This is just objective observation that given US' current and future conditions, they do not have any options available to them that will allow them to catch up to China's lead in both manned and unmanned airpower.

My last post was also a polite way of suggesting that this thread probably isn't the best place to try and quibble at what the US response may look like, and to advise people to not be too self-satisfied with J-36 and SAC's jet.

There is genuine competition afoot, and there's no need to try and extrapolate deeper meanings than that, and if one desperately wants to do so, this isn't the right thread for it.


This isn't directed at you, but to everyone in general.

 

[W20]

"It used to be that US started the race early but China runs faster, but we're now at a point where China is both ahead and runs faster."

Exactly

The dreamed-of NGAD is already flying and is made in China

On the one hand is for laughing non stop and, on the other hand, one can almost predict that the reaction of The West Empire will be what we have seen: silence, denial and fantasies

But as soon as the conversation becomes uncomfortable for one of the dukes (of this feudal forum with an absent king) the veiled threats begin

 

[Biscuits]

"It used to be that US started the race early but China runs faster, but we're now at a point where China is both ahead and runs faster."

Exactly

The dreamed-of NGAD is already flying and is made in China

On the one hand is for laughing non stop and, on the other hand, one can almost predict that the reaction of The West Empire will be what we have seen: silence, denial and fantasies

But as soon as the conversation becomes uncomfortable for one of the dukes (of this feudal forum with an absent king) the veiled threats begin

At least for me I agree with the idea that we should not declare some sort of absolute victory until we see what the US makes.

Yes, from an objective level, there is an advantage in many sectors, but it is not impossible to leapfrog these with a latecomer advantage.

The enemy is less funded and arguably has systematic issues with worker/engineer skill (cough H1B cough), but we should assume that he is always hard at work and dangerous. Keep in mind Russia has the same issues as US but multiplied greatly yet they can in isolated cases make competent contemporary tech.

For the NGAD I'm adopting a wait and see attitude.

 

[Stealthflanker]

Part 4: As chief designer Wang said, EW will be a key feature for 6th generation. Here I do some back of the envelope calculation on how EW will degrade US attempts at BMD and explain why speed and altitude will keep the J-36 survivable where the B-21 cannot.
View attachment 142596
The one hundred trillion times (-140dB) is a bit of an extreme case (i.e. 1500km detection againt a -20dBsm RV). Things improve a bit to "only" ten billion times (-100dB) when the RV is at 150km.

Previous infographics on the J-36:
Definition of 6th gen and possible J-36 missions
Concepts of PLAAF air superiority oriented combat drones
J-36 in OCA (will be updated to include drones)
J-36 in DCA (updated with drones)
J-36 tactics vs B-21

This is nice infographics. The thing is you dont seem to take into account that you're jamming from the sidelobe of the TPY-2. Which for 25000 TRM in average equals to about 1/25344 = 0.0004 or -44 dB This will work against your jamming power. Where the TPY-2 can burn through the jammer and still detect the target.

Even then the sidelobe can be further lowered down via use of appropriate weighting of the array e.g Taylor -40 dB Which can help lower the averages of the sidelobes to about -48 dB, with manufacturing quality of the antenna can allow at current industrial tolerance -50 dB, this sidelobe level also complicates engagement with Anti radiation missile and even electronic intelligence in the first place. It's the reason why every modern SAM's be it Western, Russians and Chinese are moving on phased array, even PESA can be made with such low sidelobes.

The more appropriate equation to use is this from David Adamy's "EW-101". This is for Standoff jamming case, which also apply here as you dont jam directly within the mainlobe. This allows you for directly calculates the Burn through range



Where :
PJ : Jammer power (dBm)
Pt : Transmit power (dBm)
Gj : Jammer Gain (dB)
2GTr : Radar antenna gain, 2x because antenna reciprocity theory (gain during receive = gain during transmit)
Grj : The radar sidelobe gain to the direction of the jammer this is the sidelobe gain
Dj : Distance between jammer and radar
Sigma : Target RCS (sqm)
J/S : Jammer to signal ratio which required for the jamming to "work" (bigger means worse, while smaller means better)

I also take liberty in recalculating some of the infographics.. for starter the THAAD
THAAD is known to have 25344 TRM's and 9.2 sqm antenna, also being Full FOV array, this put the frequency at 9072 MHz The basic average sidelobe level is that -44 dB but with Taylor -40 dB weighting it can be -48 dB with tradeoff of antenna efficiency which drops to 76%. Thus make the gain 47.8 dB instead of 51 dB.

TPY-2's power is sized based on ABM treaty which put limit on average power to 3 Million Watt/sqm Which correspond to about 1-10 Watt of average power/ Module, 20% duty cycle is assumed thus making the peak power of 1.267 MW. The range against the -20 dB target is then calculated to be about 210 km assuming Swerling case-1 target with 50% PD. 90% made it 126.2 km or basically Low Earth Orbit. This is without jamming

Spoiler: Radar parameter

As for the jammer, assuming same working frequency. Your cheek AESA will have about 688 TRM's and unweighted (to maximize gain) 33.35 dB and 20KW power as specified.

Using the equation from EW-101 shows that the range reduction from the jamming is about 11%.




The TPY-2 can still detect that -20 dB target from 186 Km. Clearly brute force approach is not the way. Better attempt is to get Penetration aid.

The spreadsheet for the calculation is available here :

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[phrozenflame]

I have said it before, but there's major implications for all of China's aerospace industry for the two 6th gens. There's so many western videos and articles talking about the two planes as standalones, but none of them realize that insane implications that they have on the boarder picture.

For most of modern history, China has been behind the West in basically all areas of technology, especially in aerospace/aviation. China has been catching up fast in basically every area, basically neck and neck with America in most fields and even slightly exceeding them in others. But catching up is one thing, actually surpassing America in a meaningful way, especially in such a complicated field like aerospace that China has always struggled with is another thing entirely. I was always kind of scared that China would catch up with America and just kind of plateau, keeping pace with America with incremental improvements but too scared/conservative to actually take a big step forward without someone taking the first step. I'm glad to have been proven wrong.

This has applies to all of China of course, this shows that the chinese people and chinese companies are willing to actually embrace radical new designs and revolutionary new technology and that the central government is daring enough to actually fund said projects, even to the tune of the how many tens of billions it probably will take for the development of the two new 6th gen planes. This has major implications for every new project undertaken by China in the future and not just in aerospace, maybe it's not impossible to see the next generation destroyer with a heavy focus on laser weapons or nuclear submarines or nuclear carriers with molten salt/liquid metal nuclear reactors instead of the traditional pressured water reactor in the near future.

The pace is also insane. Compared to America's decades of flying stealth planes and their very mature aerospace industry, China is moving very very fast. A decade ago the J-20 wasn't even in active service yet and yet here we have the 6th gen prototypes already flying. America on the other hand, has been sitting on the F-22 for decades, and the F-35 has had some serious developmental issues and delays and it looks like the NGAD looks set to continue that trend. I'm not sure how Chengdu and Shenyang is doing it, be it good leadership, a clear goal, good computer modeling program assisted by an insane amount of supercomputing, all those wind tunnels finally paying off or they are throwing an insane amount of money and engineers at the problem. But however they are doing it, hopefully it spreads to the rest of the chinese aerospace sector and beyond. Of course this speed will apply to other future projects as well, whatever new drones/CCAs are in development, future upgrades for the J-36/J-50, and of course upgrades to the existing 4th/5th gen fleets.

Also random tangent here, but China is doing all of this with a immature commerical aerospace and aviation sector. One reason why America has always had such an advanced and large air force is because they have always dominated commerical aviation. Both the American civilan and military sectors supported each other in a virtuous cycle much like how Chinese commerical shipbuilding sector and the Chinese navy is supporting each other. All this insane pace of innovation and development China is doing, it's with a commerical aviation and aerospace sector that isn't contributing much as compared to their American counterparts. By the 2030s, which will also be around the time that this new planes enter service, China should have a relatively mature commerical aerospace sector that will be paying dividends in R&D, generating money and in training skilled engineers and scientists. It will be interesting to see how much faster Chinese development can go when they can leverage a large and mature commerical aviation/aerospace sector like how America does.

Well, thats what happens when you let AIPAC drive the foreign policy. US was busy serving others interests. China was busy serving its own interests over the last 3 decades.

I feel even J-36 will continue to have advantage in power generation due to its 3 engines, as more powerful engines come online in few years and as Chinese close the gap in Engine tech and given current trajectories, may surpass so.

US may be forced to adapt to a 3 engine model, making everything extremely more expensive, bye bye carrier capability.

SAC is kind of already the answer to whatever USN is brewing. J-36 is about forcing US's hand to invest money they dont have. 2 engine NGAD was 300m.

USAF decision to shelf NGAD and go for a next-gen F-35ish plane looks to me like that had no clue wtf was going on with CAC. The 2 engine model and paper leaks over the years seems like a well thought out psyop to lure them into false sense of reality.