Arab Spring II in Egypt. The potential Civil War.
- Thread starter Jeff Head
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Those reports, of such blatant attacks are coming from the Morsi and Muslim Brotherhood supporters. But two Egyptian military personnel were killed (and not the one the crowd) when they came under fire, which instigated the shooting. During the shooting there continued to be fire coming from the crowd.
My guess is, that some hardliners infiltrated the crowd and started firing precisely to provoke such an incident. It would not be the first or the last time something like this has occurred.
It's tragic, and I pray is ceases.
Well, the Morsi crowds have been very small compared to what happened a week ago Sunday when over 14 million people protested. Over the three-five days, they estimate that up to 25 million or more protested against Morsi.
Since that time, on most occasion, the Morsi crowds have been met by anti-Morsi crowds of equal or larger proportions. One such meeting led to the fight over the 16th October bridge a couple of days ago, where many people were injured. The military watched that confrontation/riot between the two sides...but diod not intervene militarily.
Protesting, and counter demonstrations and some fighting however, is not what led to this incident. Shooting did.
I have little doubt that it was provoked, and grieve for those lost and their family, friends and loved ones.
As to silence...it simply is not so. I cannot speak for the UK, but here in the US it has been fairly well covered and talked about all day here.
plawolf
Lieutenant General
And all reports of the protestors shooting only come from the military. If you want to hold the accounts of the victims as biased, fair enough, but shouldn't you be applying the same standard to what the military says as well?
As for the dead soldiers, well, first, are there are independent confirmation that they were killed by gunfire? Secondly, even if one or two soldiers were killed by gunfire, it does not automatically mean protestors shot them. If the protestors' story is true, with soldiers using teargas and coming at them from two sides guns blazing, its perfectly possible the soldiers died from friendly fire.
Forgive my scepticism when such understanding is only ever applied to those shootings done by those the west supports or likes. Where was this restraint and willingness to look at things from the side of the shooters during Libya and Syria?
Do you not see how you answered your own question? Were anti-Morsi protestors attacked in the streets by mobs or shot by the security forces when they tried to congregate to protest? Could it possibly be that the mob violence and armed intimidation might be having the desired impact on protestor turnout?
In addition, those numbers for protestors are from the organisers, and such head counts are almost always grossly exaggerated.
And you know this for a fact because?
I was talking about official government silence. Would you content that had this shooting been done by an unfriendly regime that the western governments would have been lining up to denounce and condemn it?
Look, wolf, unfortunately, here in the US we have the worst rogue government in our history in this administration.
A lot of us HAVE spoken out about it. There is an alternate press here on the internet and elsewhere (which of course is being monitored and intimidated by this same admin). But plenty of Americans have spoken out against both Libya and Syria involvement and the actions there. I published myself an article just last week about how the people Obama is sending money and weapons to in Syria are killing monks and Catholic priests and slaughtering them (beheading them) simply because they are not Islamic.
Obama is not only a disaster for the US, but for most of the civilized world IMHO. He was re-elected, sadly, because he has promised so many people so much for nothing.
But we know that will not work...he is bankrupting us, and living like some kind of royalty in the process.
I just hope the rising discontent and anger is maintained and reflects in the 2014 mid-term elections and we turn it around here.
We will not do that by electing establishment candidates. They have proven to all belong to the same "club," and we are going to have to get much more common Americans into office in numbers. Right now they only thing holding back a total disaster (and it is bad enough as it is) is the fact that we did that in 2010 and those people are holding the line in the House of Representatives against both the Obama administration and the establishment Republicans who act a lot like different sides of the same coin.
The Obama administration has been caught here in Egypt with its pants down. I am glad to see their designs for Egypt coming undone. Of course he is not talking a lot about t. It is an abject failure of his...and they haven't gotten their stories straight yet.plawolf said:
Soon enough they will come up with some kind of new misbegotten strategy that will try and take the whole world for fools again like the did with the Benghazi affair. Telling abject, ludicrous lies and expecting the whole world to believe it.
But I think, and hope, that people are getting wise to him and his administration.
Anyhow, a lot of Americans are unhappy about all of this and are trying to do something about it.
plawolf
Lieutenant General
Well, I have little love for Obama and I was wary of him from the start, but I think you are being a little too harsh on him when a lot of the things he is being blamed for, like the recently exposed NSA spying, drone strikes and reditions was initiated by the previous Bush Government.
Obama deserves his fair share of blame for not only continuing, but often expanding those programmes, but I think it is being a little naive to think that a Republican government would have done things differently when it came to events like Libya and Syria.
I think you hit the nail on the head about the established parties and their representatives being two heads of the same coin, but that is a systematic problem with the modern democratic model as a whole, whereby you need money and media coverage to have any chance to win office, but that puts you in thrall of interests groups who owns and controls both money and the media once you are elected. If you don't play ball, the same money and media that helped you into office can just as easily help you out again comes the next election.
The fact that campaigning for office is pretty much a full-time job and career, especially in America with its very short terms, also has a massively negative impact on good governance since those people elected to high office almost always have no understanding or qualifications for the jobs they have been elevated to, or the time to really learn the ropes since they need to think about the next election almost as soon as they enter office.
But I think we are getting a little off topic here, so best reign ourselves in or start a new thread as this isn't really the place for this discussion.
They were initiated by Bush, but they were used entirely differently. Obama has escalated their use much more then the Bush administration, removed many of the safe guards, and then applied them in very dangerous ways both domestically and internationally. There can simply be no doubt of this, and for that he deserves the criticism.
We criticized Bush for implementing them for precisely these reasons. Though he sought to use them much more guardedly, we all know the temptation was there and waiting for them to be much more abused. And now they are, and for that Obama gets the very valid criticism. It has made things much worse at home and abroad.
It is not naïve. it is simply a fact. The GOP, even thought the establishment representatives are willing to do a LOT more than most of us agree with, would NEVER have taken Egypt down in the manner Obama did and brought in the Muslim Brotherhood. That was a disaster waiting to happen. And now it has. They also would not have taken Quadaffi out...because they viewed that GOP presidents had already neutered him and he was very quite and restrained.
And in all likelihood, as long as Assad kept Hamas in check and did not get too outlandish with the Ayatollahs in Iran, he would have been left alone as well. No way would a GOP administration ever have considered getting behind any Al Quida led rebels in any of these cases.
Term limits are something the American people are demanding...but for obvious reasons the establishment candidates on both sides oppose and drag their feet on. But it would make a HUGE difference in this issue....and its time is coming. We just need to get more non-establishment candidates in office in 2014.
Agreed. I'll call it quits on this line of discussion if you will.
ABC78
Junior Member
There is a little to much wishful thinking in the west for a painless and bloodless transition to democracy and reform in the Arab Spring countries.
I won't deny I hoped that these people could make the transition peaceably but my knowledge of events like the Chinese 1911 Revolution and the Fall of the Soviet Union and it's transition to democracy in 90's(though that's still a work in progress) neither went forward with out hardship, blood, sweat and tears.
Hell in Egypt Morsi tried to pull a Yuan Shikai and things there are starting to look like the May 4th Indecent and the White Terror
I won't deny I hoped that these people could make the transition peaceably but my knowledge of events like the Chinese 1911 Revolution and the Fall of the Soviet Union and it's transition to democracy in 90's(though that's still a work in progress) neither went forward with out hardship, blood, sweat and tears.
Hell in Egypt Morsi tried to pull a Yuan Shikai and things there are starting to look like the May 4th Indecent and the White Terror
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ABC78
Junior Member
Egypt seems headed towards a turbulent couple of months if the opposing protests stay relatively low in violence. But should a low level civil war breakout between the factions and the Egyptian military can not keep it from becoming an all out civil war does the West intervene? Suez Canal Crisis 2 Lybia 2?
plawolf
Lieutenant General
Latest development.
Over a hundred killed and thousands wounded in one incident, this has been pretty much the norm and happening continuously since the coup, but only major flare ups like this one get any prime time attention.
Contrast this to the Libyan, Syrian and even anti-Morsi protests and you will need to look really hard away to not see a clear distinction with regards to how 'good' protests and 'bad' protests are treated by the western media, and it is not just me who see it. Did the same generals and soldiers use such excessive force even under Mobarack? These generals are no fools, and they have been emboldened into using ever more excessive force precisely because they also recognise the west's clear bias and sees that as acceptance or even support for the violent crack down.
The only reason thing have not desended into a full blown civil war yet is because no one is backing the brothers. If the brothers had some international backers willing to supply weapons, money and organisational support as the Syrian opposition enjoyed, the situation would be similar to Syria already.
Over a hundred killed and thousands wounded in one incident, this has been pretty much the norm and happening continuously since the coup, but only major flare ups like this one get any prime time attention.
Contrast this to the Libyan, Syrian and even anti-Morsi protests and you will need to look really hard away to not see a clear distinction with regards to how 'good' protests and 'bad' protests are treated by the western media, and it is not just me who see it. Did the same generals and soldiers use such excessive force even under Mobarack? These generals are no fools, and they have been emboldened into using ever more excessive force precisely because they also recognise the west's clear bias and sees that as acceptance or even support for the violent crack down.
The only reason thing have not desended into a full blown civil war yet is because no one is backing the brothers. If the brothers had some international backers willing to supply weapons, money and organisational support as the Syrian opposition enjoyed, the situation would be similar to Syria already.
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